05-26-2017, 05:26 PM
(05-26-2017, 05:10 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: A lot of people say this about polling, but there are pollsters that work to avoid the question bias and use models to compensate for low response rates. The issue with special elections is that they are tougher to model and so the MoE is often higher. Overall, polling has been fine. The polling wasn't wrong last year, the popular election results were within the MoE of most polls (and the statistical models of political scientists for that matter). The pundits were talking about the data wrong and the EC us hard to predict with models and polls.
I think the pols were wrong for the election because many people wouldn't admit they were going to vote for Trump. In general I'd agree that polling is about as reliable, on most topics, as it has been in the past.
