09-17-2018, 12:30 PM
Vlad: I've already explained the fallacious 3000 death rate once. Trump once again was right.
https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/09/13/fact-check-trump-is-right-critics-are-manipulating-puerto-rico-death-toll-estimate-hurricane-maria/
Last month, a new study was produced by George Washington University that estimated the “excess mortality” from Hurricane Maria over a six-month period at 2,975 within a 95% confidence interval of 2,658-3,290 “excess” deaths.
This was the second-highest estimate after the faulty Harvard study, and was based on a statistical model that subtracted the number of people who theoretically should have died over the same period from the number of people who actually died during that time.
..................................................................................................................................................................
There is nothing "fallacious" about examining the death rate using the GW model, so you have not refuted anything until you can offer some other hypothesis for the anomalous death rate following the hurricane. (Sunspots, perhaps?)
Bels has raised a material objection to your claim that the researchers did not even go to Puerto Rico; you have not answered him. Until you do that your claim doesn't stand.
Trump's claim is not only that thousands didn't die because of the hurricane, but also that the study was only concocted to embarrass him. No one has demonstrated anything close to this; but he can expect his followers to accept his word as truth.
You yourself have claimed he lies off the cuff, without premeditation. Why isn't this one of those "ok" lies?
https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/09/13/fact-check-trump-is-right-critics-are-manipulating-puerto-rico-death-toll-estimate-hurricane-maria/
Last month, a new study was produced by George Washington University that estimated the “excess mortality” from Hurricane Maria over a six-month period at 2,975 within a 95% confidence interval of 2,658-3,290 “excess” deaths.
This was the second-highest estimate after the faulty Harvard study, and was based on a statistical model that subtracted the number of people who theoretically should have died over the same period from the number of people who actually died during that time.
..................................................................................................................................................................
There is nothing "fallacious" about examining the death rate using the GW model, so you have not refuted anything until you can offer some other hypothesis for the anomalous death rate following the hurricane. (Sunspots, perhaps?)
Bels has raised a material objection to your claim that the researchers did not even go to Puerto Rico; you have not answered him. Until you do that your claim doesn't stand.
Trump's claim is not only that thousands didn't die because of the hurricane, but also that the study was only concocted to embarrass him. No one has demonstrated anything close to this; but he can expect his followers to accept his word as truth.
You yourself have claimed he lies off the cuff, without premeditation. Why isn't this one of those "ok" lies?
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
