War with Iran?

[Dill]

(06-19-2019, 02:27 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: There are a quite a few problems with using rockets in combat.

First, they are hard to manage and have a tendency to blow up or malfunction on launch unless handled quite precisely and somewhat delicately. The Iranians use rockets that are based upon former Soviet models that they captured from Iraq or acquired from Russia or China. Based upon these models, they have branched out to create some of their own designs (primarily variations meant to increase range). The original designs of the Soviet models were fairly solid and reliable for the users. But Iran has made alterations, including changes to the rocket fuels due to their inability to obtain certain ingredients. We discovered this from some of the SCUD rockets Iran had provided to the Houthis in Yemen and which were fired towards the Saudis. While the Americans were crowing about Patriot missiles shooting down the SCUDs, it was later realized that many of the missiles malfunctioned or even prematurely exploded due to changes made by the Iranians.

The next problem with rockets is accuracy. If your target is a city or a military base and you aren't particular about where it lands so much, that isn't much of a problem. Rockets work great for that purpose. If your target is a mobile military target such as troops in the field, caravans, fleets, etc., then you have big problems. You have to have the capability to find and track the target. It is not so easy to find and track military targets. They generally don't want 'the bad guys' to be able to do that. Satellite imagery can help, if you have satellites. I'm not sure that the Iranians have any satellites. If they do, I'm pretty sure they do not possess a network that can provide 24/7 recon over their country, the ability to produce high resolution images and the ability to download those images from satellites. Barring that, the next method is aerial recon. There is a problem with that for the Iranians, however. We own the skies. Anywhere in the world- We own the skies. While the Iranians appear to have an air defense network which is superior to what we saw in Iraq, we will still own the air and will reduce most of their air defenses within a matter of days. The lifespan of any Iranian aircraft (manned or unmanned) is probably shorter than that of a fly. So, aerial reconnaissance is really not an option for them. That leaves only visual ground recon by either forward observers or agents. These observers  are somewhat reliable at providing data on a target at one place in time, less reliable with a mobile target over time. Also, they need to communicate this data. Expect that pretty much all communication networks in the country will be reduced within 48 to 72 hours (that is also something we do, and why we like to have air superiority). Additionally, all radio and telecom traffic will be jammed by EA-6B Prowlers or AWACS (or whatever the modern equivalent is - those planes are from like 40 years ago). In short, it is gonna be real problematic for them to figure out where our guys are in order to fire rockets at them. They would probably be better off just burying the rocket warheads under major roads and remote detonating them when a convoy passes over.

Good analysis here. Systematic. Officer like. Responsible. And you are apparently treating with the Iran of 2019, not 1986.

Couple points and questions to develop this further. First is about what happens BEFORE all communications networks are reduced. What sort of casualties might the US be expected to take? Seems to me that, in contrast to prep for Iraq and Afghanistan, US strategists are focused on their anti-access and areal denial capabilities. They would have to take out buried sites, some as deep as 500 meters.

Second, the converse of the accuracy problem is that missiles are hard to stop. Some of Iran's rockets, like the Emad, which has a 2000 km range, are supposedly able to hit within 30 meters of a target or explode over them. That would be with a 750 kg payload. Don't these also have internal radar guidance?  If four or five of these strike US ships, no one will care if 5 malfunctioned before striking and 4 were taken out by air defense.

I read somewhere that Iranians might swarm US naval vessels with hundreds of old missiles, exhausting defense measures, then follow that with a wave of guided missiles.  But you think they would be unable to track targets? They do have lots of drones. One followed one of our aircraft carriers for 25 minutes without being detected. And they have friends with satellites to the north and east, don't they? Could they plausibly get access?

Third, about "owning the skies."  We certainly do over Afghanistan. But we don't over Syria. How would US aircraft fare over SAM-studded Iran?

Fourth, in addition to taking out their air defenses, there is also a navy to worry about, with some 30+ submarines with homing torpedoes and a couple capable of firing missiles from undersea. Planning for asymmetic warfare against an opponent they presume would overwhelm their surface navy quickly, they have developed an array of smaller target ships and submarines to exact heavy pre-landing costs on the potential invader.  Can the US track and target their submarines sufficiently well to take them out before they damage US ships?

If I am the Iranian leadership, I know my goal is not to "defeat" the US military, but to exact a cost for defeat that the US would be unwilling to pay. 
Do you think they could do that, given their current forces?