War with Iran?

[Dill]

(06-19-2019, 02:36 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: One good thing about Iran, the population is not nearly as divided between different sects and and tribes as Iraq or Afghanistan which would fight amongst themselves and try to become autonomous.

But the bad thing is that the vast majority of the population will despise us as occupiers. Unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, there won't be factions we can cozy up to and play against the rest (i.e. Kurds, Afghani tribes, etc.). There would be a large and organized underground movement to force us out, the likes of which we have not seen since the Viet Cong. And because of the size and topography of the country we could not even hope to weed them all out. I don't believe that we could nation-build there. No matter how many troops we used. And I suspect we would need Vietnam levels of troops (100,000+) stationed there just to occupy. That would bankrupt us eventually.

There are Kurds, but it's not clear what role they would play in this scenario. They've not been persecuted as they were under Saddam. There is political division in Iran, but it is likely an American attack would close rather than widen that division.

Calculating the costs of "victory," I see two phases. The first would involve taking out the conventional military. I just don't see a cakewalk there. The US would take significant casualties (for a democracy fighting a 3rd-world country) while stomping a "mudhole" in their ass. Realistically, that would be mission accomplished for the Iranians.

The Iranians would be planning for a second, "insurgency" phase after the defeat of their military. This would be better armed and coordinated than the Taliban or Iraqi insurgencies. Their nuclear scientists might be sent to Russia and China, ready to return and revive their nuclear program when the US leaves.

But suppose the US doesn't leave?

(06-19-2019, 02:36 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: I envision that an occupation would be something akin to Afghanistan where we try to secure Tehran and some other cities and supply routes through the country, and then try to "win the hearts and minds" of the population through the urban populations. I don't know, maybe we try and build a new Studio 54 in downtown Tehran and restart where we left off in 1979, eh.

But we would still need to secure the borders, particularly the border with Iraq, in order to keep weaponry and troops from free-flowing back and forth (like Afghanistan). That means a lot of far-flung outposts in the hinterlands of the country. And those are susceptible to attack from guerilla forces. And, like Vietnam, some of those would be overrun. We didn't lose any major battles in Vietnam, but small units (even up to company size) and outposts were overrun somewhat regularly. That, combined with supply line ambushes which have become so common in Iraq and Afghanistan would mean massive casualties... lots of body bags.

Then we are stuck with yet another occupation, and that is where the bulk of casualties would occur. All indicators are that this one would be more costly than either Iraq or Afghanistan.  I don't know if the casualties would be Korea/Vietnam level. But they would not have to be. 

Imagine that, after three years, US battle deaths reached 6,000 while the number of critically wounded surged to 30,000 plus, and the US falls into a recession. An even bigger problem if a Democrat who would have restored the Iran Deal wins the next election, heightening the sense that, barely a decade of leaving Iraq, the US had once again jumped into another, more costly, unnecessary war. 

A final consideration through all phases would be the effect of an unnecessary war beyond just Iran and the US, i.e., on the regional and global system of international relations. What might the costs and gains be there? First it is hard to see that armed conflict with Iran would be limited to Iran and the Persian Gulf. Second, what opportunities would regional and global players see in the conflict, not all of them our friends? Trump's pullout from the Paris Agreement, TPP and Iran Deal have put US diplomacy/credibility on shaky ground, creating a power/influence vacuum in the Near and Far East. Anger at US (Trump) behavior is already forcing many countries to reconsider their alliances and commitments to the US, which is now behaving much like Athens in the Peloponnesian War.