War with Iran?

[Dill]

(06-19-2019, 03:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If the US attacks Iran it will bust open a hornets nest all across the Middle east.  That is the biggets problem I see.

I would not expect an immediate, coordinated conflagration.

But a "hornets nest" for sure. 

1. Hezbollah and Hamas could fire rockets into Israel, forcing the Israelis to respond, perhaps even invade again.

2. Yemen: same old same old.

3. Iraq already has a government and military sympathetic to Iran. They could have difficulty controlling attacks on US assests in that country. The attempt to do so could ignite an insurgency.

4. Similar potential for disruption in Afghanistan.

5. B-zona mentioned the use of missiles against fixed targets like bases in Iran. But let's not forget that Qatar has an air base with 11, 000 airmen barely 100 miles across the gulf. I don't trust Patriots to defend against a swarm attack.  In Kuwait there are at least three US bases, which could contain another 20,000 US military members, plus a Naval base in Bahrain--a country with an oppressed Shia majority.

6. If Iran strikes Israel, as Saddam did in the Gulf War, that would also have destabilizing effect, creating tension between Arab governments who support a US aid supported status quo of hands off Israel, and populations who see that as national humiliation. The perception that the US is suddenly over extended, that US "friendly" regimes are vulnerable, could lead to another Arab Spring in several countries, including Saudi Arabia.

7. Trump/Bolton may not be listening, but there are certainly people telling them a war with Iran would involve way more than a clash of conventional forces in that one country. And the risk to assets like the bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait very great. That recognition creates an incentive to go to the next level and use nukes.  "Why do we have them if we are not going to use them?"

8. Finally at the global level, war would be a wonderful opening for Russia and China to further degrade US alliances world wide. Most nations of the world will see the US as an aggressor in this case, regardless of what their leaders say. After making the Iran Deal, the US broke it, then ordered allies to break it as well, then sent more and more military assets into the Gulf.

9. Also, if the US sees "mission accomplished" quickly, in a week or so, and begins a costly occupation, then we can expect steadily increasing problems regarding 1, 3, 6 an 8 above.

I've noticed many Americans seem to view conflict with Iran as merely bi-lateral, with success to be gauged by a match of our conventional forces against their conventional forces, with little sense of all these other diplomatic/international implications and consequences. They may remind us how quickly Bush routed the Taliban in 2001 and destroyed Saddam's military in 2003. So why would we worry about a larger country with way more misslies than Iraq and way more mountains than Afghanistan?

On the good side, the Iranians so far seem more cautious and far-sighted than Trump/Bolton/Pompeo. They will require more provocation than they have already.