War with Iran?

[Dill]

(06-21-2019, 06:19 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: That SAM quote might be reasonable for a shoulder fired missile with a range of 2 to 3 miles. But the types of SAM's that you need to hit a Global Hawk 24 or more miles from your launcher are substantially more expensive, particularly when you have to include the costs of radar tracking stations and command centers. The market cost for a Russian S-400 missile system with 8 launchers, 112 missiles and command and support vehicles is $400,000,000. Your probably looking at around $2 million per missile for the basic missile (9M96E) which would give you about a 40km, or 24 mile, range.

But that is if you have active and open trade with other countries to acquire such missiles. If your trade borders are closed due to some type of embargo (like, say the U.S. got mad at you because you were using centifuges to create high grade uranium and got a bunch of countries together to cut off your trade), then the costs of acquiring such missiles through the black market become astronomical. You could try to save a little money and do-it-yourself. But then your run into astronomical costs for the materials, some of which can be pretty rare and hard to get. And that is provided that you have the necessary brain power and experience on hand to build such things. Otherwise, they don't work. You really sort of want these tings to work. Just saying.

Now, the cost of a Global Hawk drone is substantial. But consider this: we spent almost the exact same amount of money per day to keep the war in Afghanistan going. We've got the money. What's more, producing more Global Hawks will create jobs for people who will pay more taxes. It's like the gift that keeps giving! And, unlike Afghanistan, there is an end game to this operation: eventually, Iran is gonna run out of SAM's.

(06-21-2019, 06:55 AM)hollodero Wrote: Well the radar stations etc. exist anyway, and the Iranians used a home-grown missile system called Khordad [some number] to shoot down the drone. 50 km range, and it worked. The system even evolved recently. They don't need any outside systems, the production is self-sufficient, including the Sayyad missiles they launch. Also, even if it weren't, I guess some countries would be happy to help Iran out to shoot down more 100 million dollar US toys.

Now I could not find an estimated cost for these Sayyad missiles. Iran has a mass production of those. So probably it won't be just as high. A generous range would probably be 100.000-2 million (though I doubt it's as expensive to produce as it would be to buy a foreign missile). So best case scenario, the US loses that financial battle 55:1. But probably more around 100:1.

I get it's a good deal for drone manufacturers though, and the folks working there. And that sure creates some tax revenue from the tax-funded production. If that's a sustainable economic model seems a bit questionable though.

Excellent posts both.

Regarding costs though, I would also add that US must spend millions per hour just to keep all those assets in the Gulf, even if they aren't shooting anything down. 

No doubt keeping their forces on ready alert costs Iran something, but they don't have to project power beyond their borders.