07-25-2019, 10:13 PM
(07-25-2019, 09:46 PM)bfine32 Wrote: JWB announces his presence with authority..
The TL;DR version is simply this: What do you think the ECS value is? And what research are you basing that on?
There's not much point getting into it. But I figured I'd throw down my thoughts somewhere for future reference. When I see the doom & gloom articles they almost never mention the assumptions on CO2 and ECS.
Proven fossil fuel reserves are predicted to run out sometime like 2080. So these alarmist predictions of massive warming in the next 20-30 years are demonstrably false. It would take 60 years to warm 5 degrees, if ECS is 5 (which it's definitely not).
Even Judith Curry, who is in the "lukewarm" camp, doesn't rule out ECS values of 2-3. But the ability to model and test it is very problematic, not to mention the assumption that all warming is attributed to CO2.
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