Iran Situation

[Dill]

(01-07-2020, 08:24 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: I remember being in basic training back in 1983. At morning formation, the drill sergeant brought in the newspaper and read the headline story. The Soviet Union had shot down a Korean Air Lines passenger plane. All 269 people on board, including U.S. Congressman Larry McDonald, were killed. He told us, "Y'all are just about out of here. Get ready, 'cuz your heading straight to war!" For a bunch of Army recruits isolated from the world at Fort Jackson, SC, at that time, we believed him.

It didn't go down that way, obviously. I don't believe the death of Soleimani will lead to war either. At least not one that Iran starts. With a empowered narcissist who thinks he is fulfilling the quatrains of Nostradamus (as defined by a 1980's TV show) leading the U.S., who knows?

 
I remember when the KAL was shot down, but I wasn't worried it would lead to a war. US and Soviet leaders were far too rational, and it was clearly an accident. I remember when the US shot down an Iranian passenger plane as well, and I did not think that would lead to war for the same reasons.

So, speaking to the bolded, what bothers me about the current situation, B, is that the leaders of Iran and the US may not be so rational. Trump didn't just tear up the Iran Deal (which I thought offered the best long-term shot at regime change from within).  He re-imposed sanctions on Iran and has seriously hurt their economy. I heard one commentator yesterday suggest it would likely collapse in 2020.

The Iranian leadership was already in a very desperate position before the assassination. Angry too, after signing and adhering to the Iran Deal for so many years, trashing their nuclear program on the promise of peace, and peacefully coordinating with the US to defeat ISIS. They are threatened by US bases in Iraq, Qatar, and Afghanistan and Trump is further Arming Saudi Arabia. 

The assassination of a regime official ramps up pressure to respond proportionally. Most FP experts expect Iran will HAVE to respond somehow, and Trump and Pompeo assure us that when they do, the US will retaliate-- not "proportionally," but taking it to yet another level. That has me wondering if they might take out Iranian oilfields.  In any case, that promised extra-appropriate measure would surely mean a state of war exists between the US and Iran. This necessity of tit-for-tat, now looking iron clad, distinguishes the current situation from previous incidents like the KAL downing.

If I am a member of the Iranian leadership, I don't want war with the US because I don't want that catastrophe to befall my revolution, my nation and my people, but I don't want my regime to fall or disintegrate either which I see as protecting all the foregoing. However, if the latter becomes a real risk because of economic collapse, and there is no clear picture of what might emerge on the other side of that collapse, the choice between picking up the gauntlet now, or waiting until economic collapse, is looking even steven.  If there is a war with the US, sure, their first strikes would cripple the infrastructure. Trump likely thinks he can punish Iran enough without invading. We (the Iranian leadership) can likely accept more casualties and damage than the US, and hold out indefinitely. That's a terrible scenario, but looks like it's coming either way. So make clear that a war will target US allies, Israel, Qatar and Saudi Arabia as well, and that the US will be fighting another Iraq insurgency in Iraq and an expanded insurgency in Afghanistan--again. Warn a world dependent on Gulf oil to get ready to tighten their belts.  And then retaliate.  This will be a bigger and costlier unnecessary war than the Iraq War, which Trump always claimed he was against as he promised to "bring the US troops home."

So, speaking again as an American, I think that Iran has much less wiggle room than the US now, and Trump and his advisors have engineered it that way. Iran has to choose war or collapse. To my thinking, only US restraint in the face of Iranian retaliation for Soleimani could prevent war at this point. That leaves us with Trump, his mind on a humiliating and confusing impeachment, making decisions in a room largely cleared of competent advisors.

NB: just realized after writing all this--totally forgot about Congress! Trump could be reigned in from that side, defunded, or preferably impeached.