08-12-2020, 01:09 AM
A big misconception is that VP choices affect the electoral map. They really don't. There's little evidence that VP choice has given anything more than a moderate boost to candidates. A politico poll last month looked at 9 different match ups with Biden and a VP, and 8 of the 9 had him with 46-47% support, with the last one (a candidate even I don't know) giving him 45%. Trump fluctuated between 40-41% in those match ups.
So the question is what moderate boost could this give? Compared to Warren, Kamala showed a 1% boost with men, a 2% boost with independents, a 2% boost with Latino voters, and 1% boost with Black voters. An economist poll put her as the most popular choice for Democrats, Black voters, White voters, and Latino voters. Again, all modest compared to Warren.
From a campaign side of things, she can act as an effective fundraiser and surrogate, especially on race related issues, as Warren would have for economics. She'll make Pence look bad in the debates, but VP debates don't do anything.
The idea that her past will hurt her in a post George Floyd American is wishful thinking, especially since their opponent has been the worst President on race related issues since before the Great Depression. On top of that, she has said the right things since Memorial Day.
Obviously Trump will act like this is a gift, which it isn't. He has to because he's flailing, bad. His coronavirus response has been atrocious and he continues to do the wrong thing on that front. His attacks on Biden aren't sticking, especially when he says the Spanish Flu ended WWII or that we should inject disinfectant. It's hard to accuse someone of being mental unfit when you do things like that.
So the question is what moderate boost could this give? Compared to Warren, Kamala showed a 1% boost with men, a 2% boost with independents, a 2% boost with Latino voters, and 1% boost with Black voters. An economist poll put her as the most popular choice for Democrats, Black voters, White voters, and Latino voters. Again, all modest compared to Warren.
From a campaign side of things, she can act as an effective fundraiser and surrogate, especially on race related issues, as Warren would have for economics. She'll make Pence look bad in the debates, but VP debates don't do anything.
The idea that her past will hurt her in a post George Floyd American is wishful thinking, especially since their opponent has been the worst President on race related issues since before the Great Depression. On top of that, she has said the right things since Memorial Day.
Obviously Trump will act like this is a gift, which it isn't. He has to because he's flailing, bad. His coronavirus response has been atrocious and he continues to do the wrong thing on that front. His attacks on Biden aren't sticking, especially when he says the Spanish Flu ended WWII or that we should inject disinfectant. It's hard to accuse someone of being mental unfit when you do things like that.