Will The Market Explode?!

[BmorePat87]

(11-25-2020, 11:35 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Jobs are going to come back, yes. Biden is likely going to run the economy much like Obama did. Touching on jobs, this is how Obama's administration looked when it came to job gains. 

2009: -421k jobs lost per month
2010: 86k jobs gained per month
2011: 173k jobs gained per month
2012: 181k jobs gained per month
2013: 192k jobs gained per month
2014: 250k jobs gained per month
2015: 227k jobs gained per month
2016: 195k jobs gained per month

Average: 110k jobs per month

Switching to the Trump presidency.

2017: 176k jobs gained per month
2018: 193k jobs gained per month
2019: 178k jobs gained per month
2020: -1.4 million jobs lost per month

Average: -213k per month. The first three years of Trump's presidency averaged 182k jobs per month, which is right in line with how the Obama administration performed during his second term (they averaged 215k jobs per month).

Biden is going to be familiar on some level with the economic issues that we are facing, though the scale of this is larger than the recession of 2009. The vaccine coming out will help. Now, touching on the economy itself, here are the Obama's administration GDP gains. These numbers represent a percentage growth or decrease over the course of the entire calendar year.

2009: -2.5% GDP decrease
2010: 2.6% increase
2011: 1.6% increase
2012: 2.2% increase
2013: 1.8% increase
2014: 2.5% increase
2015: 3.1% increase
2016: 1.7% increase

Now, on to Trump.

2017: 2.3% increase
2018: 3% increase
2019: 2.2% increase
2020: -6.5% decrease.

The reason for all of this information is to show that the economy under Trump was doing the exact same thing as it was under Biden and Obama. This year really hit the economy hard, and including 2020, the average GDP increase under Trump is 0.3%. For Obama's entire presidency, they averaged 1.6% per year, but his second term saw GDP gains of 2.2% per year, on average. There are going to be many similarities between a Biden presidency and the Obama presidency and I don't see any particular reason to believe that the economy is going to be vastly different here. I would also expect the budget deficit to begin shrinking again, though a better measure of economic performance is GDP gains. 

Jobs are going to come back, the economy is going to come back and do fine. Anybody selling nightmare stories of an economic crash under Biden are trying to rile people up and don't really know what they are talking about. He is not a far left figure and his cabinet selections so far should be evidence of that. However, this pandemic hit the country really hard and it may take some time for things to start swinging up again. There were millions of jobs lost and those won't came back immediately.

Great post!

Brad, I don’t think you have to worry about Biden tanking the market.

We may see some scares when he fixes the foolish tax cuts, but it’ll even back out and we’ll be in a great spot for the next, inevitable recession.