What do we do if Sewell is gone at 3?

[SunsetBengal]

(12-21-2020, 08:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I think you indirectly pointed out the issue with any top 10 pick. It is rare to find 10 guys who land consistently in top 10 overall predictions. It is more rare (I think due to QB's being over drafted in round one and early) to find same 5 guys predicted.

As for Leatherwood or other OL, long way to go until draft. I said possibly 3, so don't twist it. I want to watch him play ND and then OSU or Clemson winner. We will all learn a lot about him, more than we will about the others projected to go in round 1 including Sewell. I still would draft Sewell, but drafts are always a crap shoot.

A ;pt of these drafts pick where they think they will be drafted, not a true #1 overall, then #2 overall based on talent, but more based on position. If talent, the Penn State LB may be as good as Lawrence, he just plays defense versus the elite QB position which is paid much higher after rookie contracts. So I think teams look at 2 things when drafted, talent and cap savings by replacing an expensive vet or potential expensive vet with a rookie stud.

I think that these draft boards are all over the place, for a variety of reasons, the biggest likely being bias.  Some of these "judges of talent" are biased toward stats, others toward perceived level of competition, some toward regional exposure, some from cash (as in here's X amount of $$, promote my guys).  I think it very few of these talent evaluation services that actually get it right, according to the actual skills of the player, and his likelihood of success at the professional level.  That is why we see late round, even undrafted players rise to stardom coming from "unknown" status level.  Now, on their behalf, they can't predict who will be selected and cast in a scheme or system that requires a different skill set than they possess (see Bengals repeatedly).  

All too often talent is misjudged because a player played on a successful team, and appeared to be much better because he was surrounded by a collection of highly talented players.  All of these draft boards are just popularity polls for money.  The only ones who's opinions really matter, are actual professional scouts who's very livelihoods depend on their evaluations being correct.  This is where the Bengals fail in a major way.  They skimp on scouting, ask the coaches to pull double duty, when it's virtually impossible to be a precise evaluator while your attention is so deeply divided.