CBS Power Rankings

[JS-Steelerfan]

(07-29-2015, 04:17 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: I'm not saying he is the best, I'm saying he was the best in the second half of the year last year, which statistics back up.

He outperformed any back in the second half of the year, which you can pull our game tape to see, and also notice that the backs ahead of him had better QBs to keep defenses from loading the box (except for maybe Arian Foster, but Hill had a better second half of the year compared to Foster's entire year).

I see what you're saying about having Hill do it for 16 games, but there's no reason to think he can't.

This seems like a good way to get you back to talking football in this thread, Brad. 

You're putting WAAAY to much emphasis on Hill having the highest rushing total in the last half.  First of all, half a season is not much to go on when you are predicting a guy to be as dominant as you think Hill will be.  Built secondly, you failed to consider two things: consistency and competition.  

First, consistency.  In Hill's best four games of the final eight, he averaged 136 ypg.  In his worst four, he averaged 57.  That's a pretty big swing, and suggests that while he had four exceptional games in that stretch, the other four were below average.  In other words, you're not really basing your opinion of Hill on eight games, you're basing it on four, because he was lousy in the other four.

Secondly, the competition.  The Bengals played five teams in those last eight games against teams that ranked in the bottom fourth of the league in rushing yards relinquished per attempt.*  they only faced three teams in the top ten, and while Hill had one really good game out of those three (148 yards against Denver), the other two were substandard (87 and 40 against Houston and Tampa Bay, respectively).  

So, you are basing your prediction of Hill as a dominant runner who will transform the Bengals offense on an inconsistent performance against mostly substandard competition that everyone in the league ran well against.  Good luck with that.

* In ranking opposing running D's I used ypa rather than ypg because I think it's a more accurate measure of a team's ability to stop the run.  The Steelers, for example, gave up among the least rushing yards per game, but only because teams didn't run on them as much on them because the passing d was soft. They only ranked 25th in ypa, however.  They didn't give up many total yards, but when teams did run a lot against them, they had success.