02-04-2020, 02:22 PM
(02-04-2020, 01:03 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It definitely helps that those guys went to teams that were already strong.
I firmly believe those QBs wouldn't be quite as successful if they went to a team like the Browns, Lions, Bengals, Jets, etc.
IIRC, the only QB drafted in the Top 5 in the past 20 years to win a Super Bowl has been Eli Manning.
It's been very rare for a QB drafted in the Top 5 to actually win a Super Bowl.
The Bengals could take the approach of building a bunch of talent for 2-3 years then go get a QB. But with uncertainty of how the new CBA next year will have rookie contracts structured, it may be better to get a QB this year and be on that (much) cheaper 5-year contract compared to a QB drafted in 1st round in the next 2-3 years under the new CBA.
With that said, Burrow has looked like the safest QB to come out of the draft since Andrew Luck. Only having one year of dominance can cause hesitation, but his production was no fluke. The reason for the difference is the playcalling. In 2018, the offense was much more run-oriented and Burrow was relegated to being a game manager. That was LSU's style for years. Run the ball and play good defense. With the addition of Joe Brady, it allowed Burrow to take the reins and he thrived. I am confident that if Burrow had the ability to return for another year and had the same style offense, we'd see another stellar year and it would remove the doubts about him.
The statistics correlating QB draft position to SB wins are going to off simply due to the fact that a 6th round pick has won 6 of the last 20.
If you look at guys who won multiple SB's in the last 20 years, 3 of them went in the 1st round with 2 of them going #1OA.
You can also look at the Top 5 QB's who made the SB in the last 20 years...
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
Donovan McNabb
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Cam Newton
Matt Ryan
Jared Goff
