02-23-2021, 01:26 PM
(02-23-2021, 10:57 AM)jj22 Wrote: Get what you are saying but with this model, you are opening up 2 significant holes on the roster that has more holes that can be filled realistically in a year to begin with prior to losing the top cb and de on the team.
This decision (to let them walk) will likely set the Bengals back a couple years alone.
Many fans greatly overestimate the ability to upgrade positions.
For example, I believe PFF had Hart ranked as the #40 OT (I don't put much weight in PFF individual rankings, but I am just using it as a starting point here). Considering there is a requirement for 64 starting OTs in the league that means Hart would be an upgrade over starters for approximately 20 something teams. So when you consider that only a small fraction of the 39 OTs ranked ahead of Hart are going to be UFA that means there is going to be a HUGE bidding war in free agency. If a team is trying to replace one of the worst OTs in the league then they will be willing to pay a lot more for the upgrade. That is the big difference between replacing an average starter like Hart and replacing a scrub. The money spent does not provide as large of an improvement.
Then I see lots of fans talking about filling holes with third round picks. But of the 355 players taken in the third round in the decade from '09 through '18 only about a quarter of them (93) started more than 48 games (approximately three seasons). Well over half of them (200) started less than 32 games. The draft is a much bigger crap shoot than people realize.
Everyone wants to shit on players who are just average starters. While I agree that you can't win with a roster composed just of average starters they are harder to replace than many people realize. And when you get a good player who is "good" but not an elite star it is a good idea o try and keep him.
That being said, Lawsons injury history really scares me. Not only has he been hurt a lot in the NFL, but he missed entire seasons in college also.
