Trade DOWN in the draft?

[Benton]

(02-12-2016, 09:27 PM)phil413 Wrote: You're talking about a different scenario.  This whole post is based off a large range of prospects being there, if someone is "their guy" you don't deal down and play around, I thought that went without saying but no...of coarse you don't give up on your guy if the value is there.  I agree with getting a DT if possible, I addressed that scenario at the end: "Even if the plan isn't to trade down, looking at these factors starts to tip the scale.  Especially if you get extra value from a team wanting to leap the Steelers for a DB, Seattle for a OT, GB for a DL, ect...  Also consider Cincy draft board could have a lot of similar players around 24.  If they have say Reed, Nkemdiche, Clark ranked very close they could justify sliding down say 5 or 6 slots and still getting one of them while adding a free player in the 3rd round with them.  It doesn't have to be all the same position, just an example.  So it's not so much that Cincy needs to trade down to get extra picks but the class and positions they'll be looking at could dictate making the move."  I personally would take Reed or Billings so far, but that's why they have scouts.  Regardless, if they have a few players ranked similarly no matter the position I'd consider dealing down only a few slots for an extra 3rd.  The extra 3rd could be a much needed corner, or a BPA that should have been a 2nd rounder, or even insurance to let you go total BPA in the 2nd and address one of those positions with one of the 3rds...not some distant project.    

You can't bet on a player taking a tumble unless you're going to bet on another team trading up to take a gamble.

I understand your thinking, but it's always a gamble to drop back. If you go back six spots because there's 3-4 picks you rank at that spot — and you're pretty sure the six teams in between are valueing only 2-3 of those picks — there's nothing that prevents another team from trading up.

Say we trade with the Broncos because we've got five players graded for our first round pick and they're all there. Nothing stops any of the second round teams from throwing picks at the Steelers or Arizona or whoever to trade back into the first and get one of those guys we're eying.

I understand the thinking, but unless I was in rebuilding mode and just looking to restock everything, I wouldn't trade back. Especially not when our defense is arguably a playmaker away from being a consistent top 10. Which isn't to say we're getting one at 24, but the odds are better.