Bengals getting 3 6th-round Comp Picks

[BengalChris]

(02-22-2019, 07:02 PM)Synric Wrote: Besides TE it's actually pretty close to twice as high % wise.

It's a bit dated.

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Quote:Historic Success Chart (2005-14)

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:
1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

And honestly do you think 5...6th round picks are going to make the roster or even the practice squad? I'd say if they like a player that they have a 4th round grade on packaging a late round picks to get him is a good idea.

(02-22-2019, 07:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No.  What I am saying is that multiple picks increase our chances of getting a good player.  When you see people buy multiple lottery tickets they are not planning on winning every time.  Instead they are increasing their chances of winning once.

According the draft pick value chart you would only get a late fourth round pick in exchange for all three of our sixth round comp picks.  The numbers you posted show that at most positions there is rally not that big of a difference between the chances of finding a good player.  There are certainly not three times better odds. 

Plus those numbers don't look right.  Maybe it has to do with small sample size, but according to that chart you have a better chance of drafting a starting DB in the 7th round than in the 6th.  So maybe we can bundle a couple of our 6th round picks to move back into the 7th round.

I believe Fred has point. In looking at the averages for the 3rd round compared to the 6th round, we'd have a better chance of getting a starter with five 6th round picks than we one 3rd round pick. This, of course, depends on position and how good we scout the players.

We don't need 5 guys from the 6th round to make the team. If we got an upgraded starter at any position it would certainly help.

Now, I can see a case where the team wants to move up to be sure they get a guy that they believe will be make an impact and it could make sense to use one or more of these extra comp picks to make that move. It really depends on the player and the impact the team would expect from him.

Consider a case where a guy expected to go high in the second round is there at the top of the 3rd and you want him and you are certain he'll be gone when we pick at 9th in that round, then you make the move.

For me, I see an upgraded starter as more valuable to the team than a guy sitting on the practice squad. I'd happily trade a practice squad player for an upgraded starter any day of the week.