Stop comparing Joe Burrow to Dalton

[Fullrock]

(01-03-2020, 01:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Probably trade back and draft a different QB this year.  At this point it is hard to say who would be the best option.  The full draft evaluation has not even started.  People forget that at this time in 2013 Teddy Bridgewater was a top five pick.  In '15 Carson Wentz was a late-first early-second round prospect.  Same for Josh Allen in '17.

The trade value of a top 5 pick is generally grossly overvalued.  They often bring a shitload of picks in return yet over the last 20 years only about 1/3rd of the time has the best QB in the draft been selected in the top 5.  So we would have to look closely at what QB to target and how far top trade back.

Keep in mind that it takes two teams to trade.  Too often I hear fans say that if there is not a player available that we want at a certain pick that we should just trade back.  But sometimes that is impossible because there is not another team willing to give up decent value to trade up.

And I also may change my opinion on Burrows when the in-depth draft evaluation is complete.  But right now I am really concerned that he was never a good QB in 4 years and then became great over-night with a new coach and receivers.

Using Burrow's numbers last year as a baseline for good or bad, here is a list of NFL QB's who had 1 good college season or less:

Tom Brady - 0 good seasons
Ben Roethlisberger - 1 good season
Drew Brees - 0 good seasons
Russell Wilson - 1 good season
Phillip Rivers - 1 good season
Eli Manning - 1 good season
Matt Stafford - 1 good season
Matt Ryan - 0 good seasons

You can go back to look at guys like Joe Montana and Steve Young if you want to go back that far too.

I don't think the number of "good" seasons a QB has at the college level is a good predictor of NFL success, and in Burrow's case, he hasn't had just a good season, he has had the best season in the history of college football at the QB position. The best season of the guys listed above doe not even come close to the numbers Burrow has put up this season in the best conference in college football.