Veteran Andy > Rookie Joe Burrow

[samhain]

(01-05-2020, 02:22 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here are the #1 picks going back to Peyton Manning and their QB Rating for year 1:

Peyton Manning - 71.2
Tim Couch - 73.2
Michael Vick - 62.7
David Carr - 62.8
Carson Palmer - DNP (77.3 in year 2)
Eli Manning - 55.4
Alex Smith - 40.8
Jamarcus Russell - 55.9
Matt Stafford - 61.0
Sam Bradford - 76.5
Cam Newton - 84.5
Andrew Luck - 76.5
Jameis Winston - 84.2
Jared Goff - 63.6
Baker Mayfield - 93.7
Kyler Murray - 87.4

And here Dalton's ratings the last 5 years, followed by career:

2015 - 106.2
2016 - 91.8
2017 - 86.6
2018 - 89.6
2019 - 78.4
Career - 87.7

As bad as last year was, even that rating is better than 12 of the 16.  And while many consider him now to be only as good as 2019 I do not. To each their own I guess.

I do not think Andy just fell off a cliff in ability. He's not coming off some career changing injury like rotator cuff or ACL. He's not yet old in QB years. I simply believe the most recent numbers are the result of his talent surrounding him. I consider last year as much as anomaly as 2015. (Great talent vs Terrible talent)

I believe he still is what his career number says he is... a mid 80's QB rating type of a guy. That's why I have always, and still do, consider him to fall in the clusterfrack of 10-20. Can be very good but rarely great, can be bad but rarely terrible...

If you don't agree with that then that's ok. And I know rating is not the end all be all. But it just helps explains my position.

I think if Joe Burrow has a very, very good rookie season it will look a lot like a veteran Andy's typical veteran year. I think it will take an absolute great rookie season to eclispe a typical veteran year. And I don't that's likely without a sedious influx of surrounding talent.

We'll see...

I'm not an Andy defender, but he's had some pretty shitty offensive coordinators since Hue left, as well.  Zampese was a low point.  Lazor was an improvement, but still nothing great.  He also operated without any real run game until Mixon came alive last year.  It wasn't even great in 2015.