Would you trade Mixon for an early 2nd?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-18-2020, 11:27 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I am sure you do believe that.  In fact I could make quite a list of all the 2nd round RBs people are touting as "just as good as Mixon".

Unfortunately most of you are wrong.  History shows that only about one in ten 2nd round RBs produce like Mixon.  I know you all think you are draft experts, but the truth is you are no better than the men who make their living evaluating talent for NFL teams.  

You would have to get real lucky to replace Mixon with a 2nd round pick.

This seems like an exceptionally blatant made up Fred Stat. Lets look...

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Joe Mixon: 977 rushing yards/yr (4.2 YPC) ... 290 receiving yards/yr (8.1 AVG)


2nd Round RBs The Last 4 Years (The Length Of A 2nd Round Pick Rookie Contract)
2019
Miles Sanders: 818 rushing yards/yr (4.6 YPC) ... 509 receiving yards/yr (10.2 AVG)
2018
Nick Chubb: 1,245 rushing yards/yr (5.1 YPC) ... 214 receiving yards/yr (7.6 AVG) ... Pro Bowl x1
Ronald Jones: 384 rushing yards/yr (3.9 YPC) ... 171 receiving yards/yr (9.0 AVG)
Kerryon Johnson: 522 rushing yards/yr (4.5 YPC) ... 170 receiving yards/yr (8.1 AVG)
Derrius Guice: 123 rushing yards/yr (5.8 YPC) ... 40 receiving yards/yr (11.3 AVG)
2017
Dalvin Cook: 701 rushing yards/yr (4.6 YPC) ... 305 receiving yards/yr (8.8 AVG) ... Pro Bowl x1
2016
Derrick Henry: 958 rushing yards/yr (4.8 YPC) ... 193 receiving yards/yr (10.1 AVG) ... Pro Bowl x1, 2nd Team All-Pro x1


1 in 10 2nd round RBs, indeed.  

If I go further it includes players like Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill (who through 3 years of their respective career, is basically Mixon's clone), Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy.

It's by no means a sure thing you're going to get a Mixon-level production RB in the 2nd, but the odds of it are way better than 1 in 10. It's more like 1 in 2.5 or so, maybe 1 in 3.

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Joe Mixon through 3 years: 2,931 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) 17 TD / 870 receiving yards (8.1 AVG) 4 TD
Jeremy Hill through 3 years: 2,757 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) 29 TD / 468 receiving yards (7.4 AVG) 1 TD

Is there anyone who wouldn't have traded Jeremy Hill for an early 2nd round pick after his third year?