Would you trade Mixon for an early 2nd?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-20-2020, 03:54 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Leonard is so cute sometimes.  He thinks it is more accurate to look at just four seasons instead of the last ten.

Here is the list of 27 round RBs over the last decade.  Only Le'Veon Bell, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook average more than Mixon's 66.6 yards per game.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2019&type=&draft_round_min=2&draft_round_max=2&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&league_id=&team_id=&pos%5B%5D=rb&college_id=&conference=any&show=all&order_by=rush_yds

Yes it's more accurate to look at 4 seasons instead of 10 because Mixon has only played 3 years and NFL careers are short for RBs. I probably should have just limited it to 3 years rather than 4. 10 years would only be a good window if you limited it to just the first 3-4 years of their careers, because Mixon is only 3 years in. Instead you're comparing players who had the decline of their career already to a guy who hasn't.

Todd Gurley was one of the best RBs in football in his first 4 years. Then his knees got shot and he ran for 400 less yards in 2019 compared to 2018 despite playing 1 more game. 

Doug Martin averaged 77.7 YPG his first four years in the league, then 44.3 YPG his final 3. That averages out to be 63.8 YPG for his career. Worse than Mixon, but through 3 years he had a better career than Mixon.

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By your list, you think Joe Mixon has been better than Derrick Henry in their careers. Henry has averaged 19 less rushing yards per season than Mixon, but has done it while getting .6 more yards per carry than Mixon. 4.2 vs 4.8

There's nobody (or at least nobody sane) that would have traded away Henry for Mixon so far in their careers.


It's almost like there's more to comparing RBs than just YPG if you want to get an accurate portrayal of the situation..... Unless you just want to make Fred Stats.