05-27-2020, 11:52 AM
(05-22-2020, 02:01 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: I think you're right in principle, but this will not be as hard to do as you make it out to be. The franchise tag 18.5 is guaranteed for one year. It's basically a guaranteed base salary with no signing bonus. You might as well guaranteed his base salary in 2020 because it's not like we're cutting him no matter what he does this year.
Figure it like this:
3 year deal, $12 million signing bonus, 10 million base salary per year (forget workout bonuses and such for the sake of simplicity).
If you then guarantee his base salary in year 1 (but not thereafter), he's getting 22 million his first year, way above what he's getting now.
In years 2-3 he'd get a non-guaranteed 10 million base, but you can add to that those incentives other folks are talking about to kick it up to the mid teens. Or he might be interested in roster bonuses to disincentivize the team from releasing him a week after the draft like they did Andy (cut him early or not at all). The question is what's he willing to do in years 2-3 in exchange for giving him more guaranteed money now, fully knowing he's had trouble staying healthy as of late.
Those are just rough numbers, not meant to be predictions, but note that in that scenario his 2020 cap hit would drop to 14 million, and I bet we could even get it lower.
I mean, there's a lot of ways to outline a potential contract, but the fact remains that a multi-year deal will require more guarantees than the franchise tag.
But tet's just reveiw your ballpark numbers real quick. This, as I understand, is ultimately what it looks like:
3 years 42 mil TOTAL, with 22 mil guaranteed. PLUS INCENTIVES.
Annually..
Year 1 - 14 mil (Fully guaranteed) + Incentives
Year 2 - 14 mil (4 mil guaranteed) + Incentives
Year 3 - 14 mil (4 mil guaranteed) + Incentives
In this scenario he's picking up an additional 3.5 mil in guarantees vs. the current fully guaranteed 18.5 mil on the tag. Let's be honest, that's not really all that much to attatch yourself to another 2 years.
So we have to assume that a number of the incentives are well within reach. Otherwise, I can't see him commited himself for another 2 seasons, with only 3.5 mil in guarantees and a 10 mil per base salary. So you'd probably see a roster bonus, a workout bonus, and then tiers of achievements. (X amount for starts, x amount for yards, x amount for Pro Bowls, etc.)
He's going to have to hit some of those if he plays this season. Again, a number of them will almost be built in if he actually plays. He's not going to commit to a 10 mil base salary to only net an additional 3.5 mil in guarantees if there's not a number of incentives within reach.
So let's assume he goes out and has an ok season, which results in 70 balls, 1,000 yards and sees him start at least 12 games. That's probably going to mean a good chuck of change in your scenario. Let's just say it nets him 5 mil in incentives.
You've now commited to a TOTAL amount of 27 mil dollars after one season.
And let's say he's healthy to start year 2, and you see more incentives hit (roster bonus, workout bonus, etc.) Let's say he flat out stinks or gets hurt, and only makes a couple mil in incentives. Adding only a couple million to his base salary.
You've not commited to a TOTAL of 39 mil through two seasons.
What happens if you want to cut him after year 1? What happens if you cut him during or after year two? What does it look like if he plays all 3 years?
Again, while 10 mil + incentives sounds great. If you start accounting for guaranteed money and the fact they have to be somehwat reasonable incentives then this contract starts to become a HUGE risk.
You can't just say, "Hey, here's an extra 3.5 mil so we can control rights for another 2 years. And we'll only pay you more if you get 1,200 yards or more.
Any way you slice it you're commiting way more money. In the above scenarios you'd be on the hook for 27 mil for one 1,000 year season if you wanted to cut bait. You'd be on the hook for 39 mil for a 1,000 yard season and a terrible season if you wanted to cut bait. You're paying out the nose for even average production.
I really don't see how this makes sense from our prespective at all. Where's the benefit?
