Opinion: DeSantis 2024?

[BmorePat87]

(08-30-2021, 12:20 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I'm going to give you a completely honest answer with some explanation, and I hope you'll respond.  My answer is I don't know.  You can scoff at this if you'd like, or you can choose to continue reading. (Fwiw, I hope you choose the latter.)

I'm going to break this down into two distinct timeframes:  March 2020-June 2021 and July 2021-August 2021.

The first timeline, which is the start of pandemic though the month of June of this year.  No, I do not think he shit the bed.  Despite so many people saying his policies were a disaster, the numbers just weren't there to support he had done a terrible job.  (You can read through earlier in the thread for many of those numbers) 

They were essentially average in cases, and slightly below in deaths, which is rather suprising.  Not only because of the policies so many bemoaned but because of things like population density, having numerous "big cities", travel into the state, and average age (Florida is an older state).  Despite all of these things working against them, and despite so many people claiming he was setting them up for disaster, their case rates and death rates fared no worse than any number of more heavy handed approaches by others.  In fact, in some case they were better than states who were much more agressive in their approach.

A lot of this was based on averages from the start of the pandemic that included the massive losses in NYC during the first 6 weeks or so when we lacked the infrastructure to combat the pandemic and when it was primarily impacting NYC, the most densely populated city. After that initial surge, FL greatly outpaced areas like NY, fueled by the summer surge in which they reported 20% more deaths than average as most states saw a huge decline.

I understand that you would still argue that the difference wasn't big enough to suggest this was just the results of the governor and not a demographic or travel issue. However, the comparison to California from an earlier post shoots this down 

Quote:Now were onto the second timeframe, the one where it's been very bad for Flordia.  You can see their numbers gradually start to rise in early July and steadily go up reaching a peak in the middle of August and still remaining high.  This is not at all a good thing of course, and it is certainly not a good look.  There are people such as yourself that now seemingingly have all of the ammuntion they need to hammer Desantis.


But here's where I'd really like you to focus on this post.  I'd really love some answers to some questions.  Don't be "pathetic" and avoid them.  I'm asking these in real-time not digging up a post from 6 months ago like you did with mine.

1.) What policies are currently in place in Flordia that you think have contributed to the extreme rise in case from July 1st today?  Or more simply put, what do you think Densantis has done wrong or what should have he done since this time?

2.) Assuming you've answered question #1 with some examples, can you point me to any other states that are following a similar approach?  Is Desantis alone in these lack of restrictions; is he on an island in his approach?

3.)  Do you feel they are any things outside of Desantis control, or that are inherent to Florida that lead this rise?  i.e. Tourisim, being a destination for a lot younger crowds and partying, having 8 of the top 10 biggest theme parks in America, being an older state, etc.

1. I highlighted policies already. The big emphasis is going to be on not mandating basic things like masks and barring localities from instituting such rules. These basic things play a huge rule in stopping the spread. Be it restaurants or schools, fighting to prevent counties from instituting their own rules harmed his state. But it also created a culture of not believing in the merit of these measures. People like DeSantis fought a culture war, turning masks into political arguments. 

2. Similar states are Texas, Arkansas, and Tennessee. 

Florida leads in vaccination between them. Florida has 10.5% more vaccinated than Tenn and 12% more vaccinated than Ark. Those are huge differences. They also lead proportionally in cases, deaths, and hospitalizations despite that. 

3. Do I think this is all a result of DeSantis? You do need to take into account factors like age and travel, but California also depends on travel and did not see the same rise this summer, despite having similar issues last summer, as they allowed localities to make laws to adjust to the variants. Arkansas has 3% less seniors but 12% less vaccinated and isn't at the same levels. New York has 5% less seniors but a similar amount under 18. They also have 40% of their population in 1 city, the economic hub of our country. They are no where near the level that Florida is.

So, yes, DeSantis has to own a huge share of this. 

Quote:I'm not asking loaded questions, I swear.  Perhaps there are policies I'm unaware of that are contributing to this, perhaps there is much he could have done.  I honestly have not been following the Covid stuff all that close lately.  I finally tuned out when things started looking like we were through the woods, and haven't picked it back up.  I'm covid'd out.  


But here's the thing.  You're going to have to do better than you just showing me numbers and assigning blame.  I want to know what you think is causing this and how it could have been avoided.  How is he specifically repsonsible?  Because I can't buy the "the state is totally open" when most states are totally open.  I can't buy the "he doesn't have mask mandates" when most states don't have mask mandates.  I can't buy the masks in school argument just yet because they're irrelevant to the numbers seen from July through August.

So fill me in.  What am I missing?  What are his failures in July and August and how do they differ from everyone else?  I look forward to your reply.  Maybe I'll learn something.  I mean that honestly

It comes down to creating a culture war in his state that attacked public health officials and attacked the idea that masks are effective tools and something we should promote. By pushing against officials who reported true statistics and failing to allow localities to create and enforce mask mandates to control surges when they occurred, he pushed his state to the breaking point they are currently at. They are suffering more now than ever before. It's a situation he caused. He openly mocked placed that used masks. He said he beat covid months ago. He told Floridans that it was safe and that protective measures were a violation of their rights. 


To answer your question from your last post. I would give LA's governor blame. I would also point to the fact that he did institute protective measures but his state is lagging behind in getting vaccinations. He is in the weird position where he's a Democratic in state that heavily voted for Trump and a state that has refused to get vaccinated. In this case, you see huge numbers but then low vaccinations, and you can point to the biggest factor as being vaccinations. This is of course very different from having high vaccination numbers, no mask mandates, and high cases/deaths. At that point, the lack of safety measures is the bigger culprit.