Too many carries for Mixon

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-14-2021, 05:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon has never had more than 280 carries in a season.

Over the previous 5 seasons only 4 RBs have had more than 300 carries in a season.  Zeke Elliott (3) and Derrick Henry (2) are the only two RBs to have done it more than once in the last 5 seasons.

With Mixon's history of injuries (only one full 16 game season in 4 years) I think it is important to manage his carries.  300 carries equals about 18 carries per game.  

I want the Bengals to continue running the ball a lot, so it is very important for one of our back up RBs to step up and play well.  Right now it is clear the Perine is our #2 back but he seemed to have some trouble in pass blocking.  I like Chris Evans' potential, but I have no idea if he can pass block.  Either way we need to get 10-12 carries from those guys if we are going to be running the ball 30 times a game.

BTW FootballOutsiders had a very good study of how workload impacts RB, and they found that carries are what counts.  There does not seem to be a lot of proof that the number of receptions has an impact on wearing down a RB (or at least not near as bad as rush attempts)  So I would be fine with Mixon getting 18 carries and 4 receptions a game.  That would be 306 carries and 68 receptions.  That is really a lot of touches, but Mixon is being paid to carry that type of load.

I think this first game was a bit of an outlier because of Joe coming back to full strength, but you are dead on.

There need to be drives where Perine or Evans get involved.  

I am hoping the same thing for Sample and Hodge to keep Hubbard and Hendrickson healthy and fresher.