Too many carries for Mixon

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-15-2021, 09:01 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The age of the bell cow back is over, in my opinion. Like your original post said, only 4 players have eclipsed 300 carries at all and there have only been two players in the last 5 years to eclipse 300 carries twice.

One is Ezekiel Elliott, who is already showing signs of wearing down (his ypc fell from 4.7 5o 4.5 to 4.0, and now sits at 3.0 after 1 game). In 2018, he had 8 100 yard games, in 2019 he had 7 100 yard games, in 2020 he had 2 100 yard games, and against TB, he had 33 yards on 11 carries.

The other is Derrick Henry who is a freak of a human being, but also may be due for some regression, we'll have to keep an eye on that.

I don't want Mixon to vanish the way Elliott has over the last 2 seasons. We need to meter his carries to make sure he doesn't get run down like this.

Derrick Henry is a guy i avoided in FF this year for that reason. He's had back to back 300+ carry seasons and that's usually a bad sign for following seasons. 

There have been articles written about the 300 carry "curse". A few guys have been able to achieve that and be successful the following year. 

Alfred Morris did it and still had 1200+ yards the following year, though with less than 300 carries that season.
Arian Foster did it twice and followed one with 1200+ yards (less than 300 carries) and followed the other with an injury.
Adrian Peterson did it several times with success the following years but he wasn't able to do much after 8 years. And he's a freak of nature.
Marshawn Lynch did it back to back and followed with 280 more for 1300+ but then fell off a cliff. He was also at the 8 year mark.
Lesean McCoy did it back to back and got injured the next year but bounced back to have a couple more good years.
Demarco Murray had almost 400 in '14 and only had one more year of 1200+ 2 years later. 
Chris Johnson did it back to back and went on to have 3 more good years. 
Priest Holmes did it 3 years in a row for KC and then he was dunzo.

In any case, other than Peterson, 300+ carries in a season is not a good sign and back to back 300+ seasons is almost a death knell. 

If Mixon can stay around 260-280 with around a 4.5+ypc, that would be huge help for the offense and Joe.