11-30-2021, 03:21 PM
(11-30-2021, 02:40 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Lots of factors effect a QB's passing numbers that are hard to quantify.
-A team with a weak defense will be behind more. A QB who is trailing will have to take more chances and throw more interceptions. A QB with a lead can play it safe more often. Also when a team is behind late in a game the defensive line can concentrate on just rushing the passer instead of stopping the run.
-Poor pass blocking will effect a QBs numbers. Even if there are not a lot more sacks there will be a lot more short passes or passes thrown away to avoid sacks.
-QBs that play in domes on turf have an advantage.
But even with all of these variables many times a really good QB that plays outside with a poor defense and weak O-line will still outperform a poor/average QB who has everything going for him.
Yeah, at the very least we can quantity the domes/no domes aspect of things. We have access to all passing metrics broken down into stadium type. The best that I can think of to do for #1 there is grabbing passing metrics based on differential, which isn't super difficult to do. The database that I use has a differential column that allows you to pull data based on differentials.
The second one would be tougher because how do you quantify a 'good' line? Pass protection is both line and QB controlled. Maybe use PFF grades. Your final point is spot on, though.
