Russia begins moving troops into eastern Ukraine

[Sociopathicsteelerfan]

(02-24-2022, 01:22 PM)Au165 Wrote: If your doing it, you do it through article 5 of NATO agreement as I don’t think they stop at Ukraine with Moldova right there and being considered similarly in the eyes of Putin. At least going via Article 5 you know your not alone.

Ideally, yes.  However, I don't think the EU has the huevos for that type of move.  Hell, I don't we do right now either, but we are speaking speculatively.

(02-24-2022, 01:24 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: Interesting points.

I was also sort of wondering about a limited U.S. military intervention (say, attacks on the Russian air defense network in and around Ukraine). And I totally agree about their economy not being able to re-coup air and naval losses. But I think China is the big wild card in this. Personally, I suspect China and Russia are a lot closer than we might think. And I am wondering if China is eyeing the situation with the idea that this may be the perfect time to invade Taiwan (and they really, really want to do that). I think the leadership in Washington is playing it more conservative because of that.

China and Russia are essentially allies at this point.  However, if China throws in with Russia on this unprovoked war their days of trading with the West are done and their economy, which I strongly suspect is much weaker than presented, collapses.  They would certainly assist Russia "under the table", but it wouldn't be close to enough.  For them to make really meaningful contributions to Russia they'd have to do so openly, which brings about the same problem.

(02-24-2022, 01:30 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: Good point. I'm wondering if China may start (if they aren't already) propping up the Russians with loans.

That's a guarantee, but they'd do so surreptitiously.  They can't risk becoming a global pariah (which they already should be) at the present time.

I neglected to mention, you cease all Russian assets held in other countries (that would go along with it) and ban all Russian exports.  Yes, China will help them, but that will still hurt and the asset seizure would be permanent.