02-03-2016, 12:51 AM
(02-02-2016, 08:26 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: First off, nice job abandoning your initial point of "In fact most times teams do worse after a coaching change. " when it went up in a blaze and turning it into an argument of statistics and means. Classic Fred tactic.
Except that would mean you think all teams will eventually revert to 5 win teams if under 4 means a better season and under 6 means a worse season. If you want it to be widely applied as an accepted thing, it needs to be able to be applied to all teams, not just the Browns who are the Browns.
The Patriots have won 12 games in four straight seasons.
The Buccaneers won 4 games in 2013, and then 2 in 2014.
The Vikings won 7 games in 2014 and then 9 in 2015.
The Panthers won 7 games in 2014, and then 15 in 2015.
And countless other examples that would blow your "evidence" out of the water.
All you did was look at the Browns, find a pattern, and then pretend it applies to every single team in the NFL, like some kind of mathematical law.
Must just be you're so much smarter and I just don't understand the concept.
Listen Leonard, it is one thing to call me stupid. It another thing altogether to call an entire field of mathematics stupid.
You just don't understand it. If a team, even the Patriots, has a really extraordinary year then the odds are they will not be as good next year. The Pats have made it to the Super Bowl six times under Belichick and Brady, and 5 of the 6 years they were not as successful the next year. They have only won fewer than 12 games six times in that same time, and 5 of the 6 years they were more successful the next year. Same for any team that has a really bad year. This is not a silly Fredtoast theory. This is a proven mathematical probability. I just made a post that contained three different stories about it from educated mathematicians. Since it usually takes an extraordinary bad season to get a coach there is a good chance that the team will be more successful the next year.
So did mike Zimmer really turn around a bad Vikings team, or did a lot of bad luck get Frazier fired? in 2 seasons Zimmer has 18 wins and a playoff loss. But in Fraziers last two seasons the Vikings won 15 games and also lost a playoff game.
Same with Gruden and the Redskins. In 2 seasons he has 13 wins and a playoff loss. In Shanahans last two seasons the Redskins had 13 wins and a playoff loss.
