Cincinnati Bengals Message Board / Forums - Home of Jungle Noise

(09-28-2015, 04:56 AM)Joelist Wrote: [ -> ]Yards per pass also has problems, namely that it punishes QBs in West Coast style offenses and rewards QBs in more Coryell style offenses.

Really Passer Rating is time tested and has proven the best barometer out there. It's incomplete but generally a QB with a high passer rating IS playing well. The same cannot be said in (for example) ESPNs total QBR abomination.

All I'm saying is, the way that they judge QBs in the media, yards per pass seems to be what they look for.

Rogers, Luck, Roethlisberger, all of these guys have huge YPP.... West Coast QBs typically don't, and they get labeled as game managers.

I agree with you passer rating is time tested, but just saying the average viewer judges QBs on their YPP.

(09-28-2015, 12:52 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: [ -> ]All I'm saying is, the way that they judge QBs in the media, yards per pass seems to be what they look for.

Rogers, Luck, Roethlisberger, all of these guys have huge YPP.... West Coast QBs typically don't, and they get labeled as game managers.

I agree with you passer rating is time tested, but just saying the average viewer judges QBs on their YPP.

Fitzpatrick, Sanchez and Hoyer were all in the top 9 in yards per attempt last year.  :snark:

Passer rating is much better because it's comprehensive. It accounts for YPA in addition to several other categories including TD's and INT's.

(09-28-2015, 01:11 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: [ -> ]Fitzpatrick, Sanchez and Hoyer were all in the top 9 in yards per attempt last year.  :snark:

Passer rating is much better because it's comprehensive. It accounts for YPA in addition to several other categories including TD's and INT's.

I don't disagree with you.

But if it makes my point resonate a little bit more, there is a pretty clear correlation between YPP and passer rating.

Just look at the stats so far this season.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt


here is 2014 for more reference

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/year/2014



I mean, its pretty intuitive that QBs with a longer YPP would have a higher rating, I just think when an offense is clicking the team has high YPP. It's less about the QB and more about the offense as a whole.

(09-28-2015, 01:11 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: [ -> ]Fitzpatrick, Sanchez and Hoyer were all in the top 9 in yards per attempt last year.  :snark:

Passer rating is much better because it's comprehensive. It accounts for YPA in addition to several other categories including TD's and INT's.

P.S. Sanchez Fitzpatrick and Hoyer didn't play full seasons, which is why they are so high. Although this points out that Andy's numbers will probably drop as the season continues with a full body of work.

Sanchez and Fitz only have about 300 attempts compared to the 450 average of the other QBS atop the list.

Passer rating is still just efficiency. There can be scrubs with high passer rating (like there is almost EVERY year). How often do you see average QBs with high yards/TDs and low INTs? Very rarely. Passer rating is alright to look at, but it rewards QBs that have low attempts, and punishes QBs with higher attempts (You can still have a good passer rating with high attempts, it's just MUCH harder).

And I do understand passer rating. Stop acting like I don't. Just because it uses all the stats doesn't mean anything. If someone rarely throws the ball and has high YPA it screws the whole thing up, because it rewards more points for TDs and yards than it would with people with lower YPA.

(09-28-2015, 03:40 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: [ -> ]Passer rating is still just efficiency. There can be scrubs with high passer rating (like there is almost EVERY year). How often do you see average QBs with high yards/TDs and low INTs? Very rarely. Passer rating is alright to look at, but it rewards QBs that have low attempts, and punishes QBs with higher attempts (You can still have a good passer rating with high attempts, it's just MUCH harder).

And I do understand passer rating. Stop acting like I don't. Just because it uses all the stats doesn't mean anything. If someone rarely throws the ball and has high YPA it screws the whole thing up, because it rewards more points for TDs and yards than it would with people with lower YPA.

That's why when looking at passer rating you need a large minimum number of attempts to qualify. The passer rating formula was not designed to judge a QB on a game-by-game basis but rather by season's end.

That's why you never see punters or running backs top the QB rating leaderboards when discussed by the NFL or its analysts discuss even though every season multiple punters and running backs and receivers always top the QB rating when they throw 1 pass which is completed for 100 yards and a TD.

(09-28-2015, 03:40 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: [ -> ]Passer rating is still just efficiency. There can be scrubs with high passer rating (like there is almost EVERY year). How often do you see average QBs with high yards/TDs and low INTs? Very rarely. Passer rating is alright to look at, but it rewards QBs that have low attempts, and punishes QBs with higher attempts (You can still have a good passer rating with high attempts, it's just MUCH harder).

And I do understand passer rating. Stop acting like I don't. Just because it uses all the stats doesn't mean anything. If someone rarely throws the ball and has high YPA it screws the whole thing up, because it rewards more points for TDs and yards than it would with people with lower YPA.

"Just" efficiency? How many inefficient QBs are considered to be good/great? It's sad how you write it off as "just" efficiency whenever that tells us quite a bit about a QB. Efficiency is a big deal whether you admit that or not.

You're completely missing the point because of your crusade against the passer rating formula. It doesn't "reward QBs that have low attempts", it rewards QBs that are efficient with their passes regardless of their attempts. You aren't magically awarded with a higher passer rating just because you don't throw as much as somebody else.

Over the course of a full season, how many times have you seen a guy with an 80 passer rating that you would say "man, that QB looked great this season!" and how many times do you see a guy with a 100+ passer rating over 16 games that played like shit?

(09-28-2015, 04:06 PM)djs7685 Wrote: [ -> ]"Just" efficiency? How many inefficient QBs are considered to be good/great? It's sad how you write it off as "just" efficiency whenever that tells us quite a bit about a QB. Efficiency is a big deal whether you admit that or not.

You're completely missing the point because of your crusade against the passer rating formula. It doesn't "reward QBs that have low attempts", it rewards QBs that are efficient with their passes regardless of their attempts. You aren't magically awarded with a higher passer rating just because you don't throw as much as somebody else.

Over the course of a full season, how many times have you seen a guy with an 80 passer rating that you would say "man, that QB looked great this season!" and how many times do you see a guy with a 100+ passer rating over 16 games that played like shit?

There's been multiple times when people like Tom Brady, and Andrew Luck has had a passer rating in the 80s and still played a great season. There's been multiple times where QBs played a lot of games in a season where they had 100+ passer rating and didn't play so well (Nick Foles, 13 games #1 in passer rating, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2014 and had top 10 passer rating).

I guess you just don't get that when you have lower pass attempts and higher rush attempts people are going to load the box and make it a easier throw for more yards. Meaning a higher passer rating because you have lower attempts.

Not sure if anyone else noticed this but Andy Dalton has lead three straight game winning drives against the Ravens. Talk about straight owning a team.

(09-28-2015, 05:30 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: [ -> ]There's been multiple times when people like Tom Brady, and Andrew Luck has had a passer rating in the 80s and still played a great season. There's been multiple times where QBs played a lot of games in a season where they had 100+ passer rating and didn't play so well (Nick Foles, 13 games #1 in passer rating, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2014 and had top 10 passer rating).

I guess you just don't get that when you have lower pass attempts and higher rush attempts people are going to load the box and make it a easier throw for more yards. Meaning a higher passer rating because you have lower attempts.

You lose credibility when you say that Brady was "great" in 2013 and that Foles didn't play so well.

Like I've said plenty of times, being #1 in passer rating doesn't mean you're automatically the best in the league, but it certainly means you had a good year.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-around-the-nfl/0ap3000000541622/Has-Andy-Dalton-hit-his-stride?icampaign=nflcom-cs-homepage-videoswap_generic_nfl

Great video about Andy Dalton from NFL.COM today in which they are noticing 'something different about Andy this year.'

(09-28-2015, 03:40 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: [ -> ]Passer rating is still just efficiency. There can be scrubs with high passer rating (like there is almost EVERY year). How often do you see average QBs with high yards/TDs and low INTs? Very rarely. Passer rating is alright to look at, but it rewards QBs that have low attempts, and punishes QBs with higher attempts (You can still have a good passer rating with high attempts, it's just MUCH harder).

And I do understand passer rating. Stop acting like I don't. Just because it uses all the stats doesn't mean anything. If someone rarely throws the ball and has high YPA it screws the whole thing up, because it rewards more points for TDs and yards than it would with people with lower YPA.

The only QBs passer rating punishes, are QBs that don't complete passes or throw the ball to the other team. Good QBs throw more passes and are higher rated because they complete more passes. Average QBs are rated in the middle because they don't complete as many passes as the good QBs. Bad QBs are rated low because they're bad. QBs who throw less are only rewarded if they complete the passes. 

Averages are always a better statistical analysis than raw numbers.

It's not hard to have a high rating if you throw more passes unless you don't complete the passes or you throw the ball to the other team.

If you understood the formula for passer rating, you wouldn't be arguing against it because you would realize that rating a QB on 4 areas of their responsibility is way better than rating them on 1 area.

QB rating is only skewed in a small sample size. Over a 16 game season, it's always right on the money on who the good, average and bad QBs are. Unless you can give me an example of a top 10 rated QB that is actually average, or a 15-25 rated QB that is actually a good (top 10) QB. 

Take your time. I'm in no hurry.

The word efficiency should be added to a list to create a drinking game. Good Lord.

(09-29-2015, 12:12 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: [ -> ]The only QBs passer rating punishes, are QBs that don't complete passes or throw the ball to the other team. Good QBs throw more passes and are higher rated because they complete more passes. Average QBs are rated in the middle because they don't complete as many passes as the good QBs. Bad QBs are rated low because they're bad. QBs who throw less are only rewarded if they complete the passes. 

Averages are always a better statistical analysis than raw numbers.

It's not hard to have a high rating if you throw more passes unless you don't complete the passes or you throw the ball to the other team.

If you understood the formula for passer rating, you wouldn't be arguing against it because you would realize that rating a QB on 4 areas of their responsibility is way better than rating them on 1 area.

QB rating is only skewed in a small sample size. Over a 16 game season, it's always right on the money on who the good, average and bad QBs are. Unless you can give me an example of a top 10 rated QB that is actually average, or a 15-25 rated QB that is actually a good (top 10) QB. 

Take your time. I'm in no hurry.

Philip Rivers was 12th in 2014 with 4200 yards 66.5% completion 31 TDs and 18 INTs. (Alex Smith only had .4 worse passer rating than Rivers and these were Smiths stats - 3200 yards 65.3% completion 18 TD 6 INTs)
Tom Brady was 17th in 2013 with 4300 yards 60.5% completion 25 TDs and 11 INTs.
Kaepernick was 10th in 2013 with 3100 yards 58.4% completion 21 TDs and 8 INTs.

There are a lot more examples if I could use QBs that didn't play a full 16 games, and I don't feel like going back further than a few years.

(09-29-2015, 01:54 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: [ -> ]Philip Rivers was 12th in 2014 with 4200 yards 66.5% completion 31 TDs and 18 INTs. (Alex Smith only had .4 worse passer rating than Rivers and these were Smiths stats - 3200 yards 65.3% completion 18 TD 6 INTs)
Tom Brady was 17th in 2013 with 4300 yards 60.5% completion 25 TDs and 11 INTs.
Kaepernick was 10th in 2013 with 3100 yards 58.4% completion 21 TDs and 8 INTs.

There are a lot more examples if I could use QBs that didn't play a full 16 games, and I don't feel like going back further than a few years.

Eli Manning was 15th in 2014 with 4400 yards 63.1% completion 30 TDs and 14 INTs
Flacco was 16th in 2014 with 3986 yards 62.1% completion 27 TDs and 12 INTs

This thread could have turned into everybody discussing how great Andy has been this year, but all it takes is 1 or 2 people to start the "I told you so!!!" prematurely and to go batshit crazy over a time tested, proven, statistical formula.

This is why we can't have nice things.

You have to be careful listening to the National media when it comes to Dalton. First they swore Dalton in all his passing yards/td's etc had never thrown anything like the three balls McCarron threw in game three of the preseason. Then all yesterday they swore when Dalton fumbled on the sack/strip the Dalton of prior year would have folded up. The team would have lost, and the Bungles would have returned. Um last game (last year) against the Ravens Ngata strip sacked Dalton in the 4th quarter for a potential game changer. What Dalton do? Drove the team down for the winning TD (with only Sanu as a weapon). It's funny how the hate for Dalton is so mainstream that logic and facts blind the narrative. Even crazier how Bengal fans tend to fall for it as well.

One poor outing and watch how quick these good qb qualities everyone is pointing out now is forgotten and he's back to raggedy Andy no better than McCrarron.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Maestro-Dalton-hitting-right-notes/5b279c9d-452d-438b-ae02-e517724f4099

Quote: Maestro Dalton hitting right notes

Geoff Hobson Editor


Everyone wants to know the difference now that Andy Dalton is challenging future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers for the NFL passing title. Is there a difference?

Andy Dalton is second only to Aaron Rodgers in NFL passing.

Everyone wants to know the difference.

Who is this Andy Dalton, a career 85.0 passer now rated the AFC’s best passer and challenging future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers for the NFL passing title?

Who is this red-head that has imploded on prime time but on Sunday brought one of the NFL’s most hostile home fields to its knees twice in a 4:27 span of bloodless efficiency with a pair of 80-yard drives that erased two deficits?

“Look at last year’s 3-0,” said offensive coordinator Hue Jackson on Monday, the mute button on NFL Network as Dalton’s heroics were replayed and rehashed in the league’s draining 24-hour recycle on his TV set. “Now look at this year. The guy has eight touchdowns and one interception. That’s the difference.”

Simply more. Last year it was two touchdowns and a pick. As Bengals quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese says, “We’ve got more of Andy. We’ve got more of the guy we knew we were getting when we drafted him.”

Zampese, intimately involved in Dalton’s selection as the 35th pick in the 2011 draft, is talking as much about personality as he is knowledge. As much about mid-week deportment as he is pre-snap reads.

“Everything. We’ve seen it for five years,” Zampese sai
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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
d Monday after he met with the quarterbacks. “As he’s gotten older, he’s gotten better at all these things and as he’s gotten older we’ve added more pieces around him and right now we’re all young, healthy and hungry like we were in ’04, 05, and ’06.”

Jackson has the Bengals ranked No. 2 in offense, the highest they’ve been since they were No. 1 after the 13th week of 2005. After the first month of the season, Dalton has a better yards per attempt than Rodgers and Tom Brady, more TD passes than either Manning brother, and fewer interceptions than Russell Wilson.

But if people would erase the mute button and stop looking at the most recent, numbing 24-hour loop, they would see that this Dalton didn’t fall out of the sky Sunday in Baltimore in the middle of the fourth quarter:

_A scant 55 weeks before, he capped a fourth-quarter comeback in Baltimore on his 77-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver A.J. Green with 4:56 left to give the Bengals the only September road win in the seven Ravens seasons of John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco. Until Sunday.

_Three years ago in the din of Heinz Field with the season on the line he threw a 21-yard razor to Green with eight seconds left to set up the field goal that put the Bengals in the playoffs.

_Two years ago this October he put together a 4-0 run with a 116.8 passer rating and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Month. That was 11 TDs to three interceptions. Remember the old days of 2013 when he had Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert? He threw a Bengals record 33 touchdown passes and became the first Bengal since David Fulcher in 1989 to win the three monthly or weekly AFC awards in the same season.

_Last year at Paul Brown Stadium with another season on the line on fourth-and-one from the 1, he improvised at the line of scrimmage with less than a minute left. Just like he did Sunday with 2:16 left. Last year it worked, too, when he snuck in for another fourth-quarter win that propelled the Bengals to a half-game lead over the Ravens and led to another play-off berth.

But everyone is looking at the recycled playoff loop with the mute button clicked on.

Is there really a difference?

As Zampese says, “When you put the nail in the coffin in Baltimore with (the improv), it’s a big deal,” and people notice.

Hue Jackson wanted more than pre-snap reads from Andy Dalton and his QB has responded.

Maybe it’s only the jokes that are different. The smiles. The ease. More Hue and more Andy.

So it’s not that he changed last Sunday’s winning play at the line, when he saw yet another blitz coming, switched up the protection by motioning in Eifert from wide to in tight and then threw another seven-yard dart to Green for a touchdown. He’s been doing the right pre-snap reads long enough that both the NFL-seasoned Jackson and Zampese say he’s one of the best they’ve ever been around at doing it.

And Jackson says he’s given Dalton as much freedom as anyone he’s ever had. That would include Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, and a young Michael Vick. Call Dalton “Carte Blanche,” as long as it’s on the sheet.

So that’s not different. But maybe what is different is how he reacted to losing the ball on a sack and strip for a touchdown that gave the Bengals their first deficit of the season with 6:49 left.

“Andy looked at me and said, ‘OK, Coach. Let’s go. Don’t even worry about it.’ That’s what he said,” Jackson said. “A year ago, I can’t tell you he said that. This year, he said, ‘Coach don’t worry about it. Hey, we don’t have to get it all back right here, but if you want to, we can do that.’”

Poof. Twelve seconds later, on ball thrown so well that A.J. Green zipped 80 yards down the seam to suck the air out of the place.

“There was a calmness. There was a veteran player who had been through the wars, who had been through a lot of things here that looked me in the eye and said, ‘Let’s go.’ . . . That’s what it was, and that’s what I’ve been looking for. So it’s there. And now it will pay off for us in the long run.”

A long run to maybe Vegas. Apparently Steve Smith Sr., wasn’t the only guy firing out side-line one-liners.

“He was laughing. There were jokes going on out there between me and him sometimes. That’s how comfortable this has become, and that’s what you want,” Jackson said. “There was a time yesterday when I’m in a timeout and I’m saying something and he knows what I’m saying, and he’s just sitting there looking at me and laughing.

‘Hey, Coach. I got it.’ That’s just how he is. The last play that was remarkable, I’m giving him the play and about to talk him through the scenario in case this happens and he goes (clap!), ‘Coach I got it. Here we go. Let’s go.’ I mean, that’s a comfort level. That’s spending time in here, that’s spending time in the classroom. That’s what you want from your leader, from your quarterback. That’s why he has so much respect down in that locker room because they know the time that he puts in.”

A difference? Maybe it is Jackson’s Type A personality mixing in with all the coaching, repetition, and drills. There’s no question that shortly after the Wild Card loss in Indianapolis back in January ended their first season together Jackson gave Dalton the biggest challenge of his career as he sought more leadership from the guy that could do everything you’d want at the line of scrimmage.

But he needed something else from him. And when he saw the placid Green erupt Sunday, he knew he had it.

“I think you guys all saw it,” Jackson said. “After the 80-yard touchdown run, are you kidding me? I mean, that guy was on fire. But it’s getting to be contagious. It stems from Andy. It starts with him.”

Scrambling? On Sunday, Dalton had three huge scrambles, one for a TD, one to convert a third down, and one that led to running back Giovani Bernard’s 23-yard catch to ignite the winning drive. But Zampese can click off three big scrambles in his career before Sunday.

And Zampese, the master mechanic, hasn’t seen major changes in Dalton’s throwing motion. The three stints at Dr. Tom House’s quarterbacks camp in the offseason have clearly made an impact.

“He’s quicker, more compact, more balanced, more accurate,” Zampese said.

QBs coach Ken Zampese has watched Andy Dalton grow since the 2011 draft.

But that doesn’t explain the 16-yard rope to wide receiver Marvin Jones for the TD that made it 14-0. It was a seed on a slant that the amazed Jones said was released just four steps into his route.

“That’s trust and anticipation and trust with a guy you’ve done it with 100 times,” Zampese said. “If that’s a guy we just picked up off the street and he’d been here a week, it’s different because you don’t have time on task. But it’s Marvin Jones, a guy that had 10 touchdowns two years ago, a guy he’s thrown to in big situations.”

Zampese also hasn’t seen a change in Dalton’s study habits. When they scouted him at Texas Christian, they knew he was “a football smart guy.”

“He wants to do it right,” Zampese said. “Whatever you give him to memorize, he will memorize it like it is nothing. But then on top of that he has an ability to see things before they happen by who is located where and it helps eliminate certain things before the snap or adjust to certain things before the snap that puts the odds in our favor more often.”

No one wants to sit down and watch tape with you and tell you how he does it. What he sees. That would give away too much. As Dalton walked to the bus Sunday after quieting the hysteria of half-an-hour before, he would only confirm what 70,970 and a CBS audience saw.

“Yeah,” said Dalton with the same laugh he gave Jackson. “A.J. was in the slot. I’ll give you that.”

It sounds like geometry the way Zampese looks at it. He has been around some of the best. Brett Favre in Green Bay. Kurt Warner in St. Louis. Look at the AFC and NFC leaders in third down and fourth quarter passing. Dalton and Arizona’s Carson Palmer. Palmer, the man Zampese coached in Cincinnati during that ’04-’06 run.

“What he sees and feels at the line of scrimmage, his ability to manipulate the offense to fit the look is up there with the best of them. That’s a big positive in his column. He’s been doing that for five years,” Zampese said.

After five years, it’s to the point when Zampese is making more and more notes in his mind that say, “He’s already seen that.”

“He’s comfortable in the offense. He’s comfortable in the expectations, what the parameters are,” Zampese said. “What his role is in directing guys and the plays and the protections and the runs and what the freedom is for him. When you know where the boundaries are it makes it easier to play within them . . . It brings confidence to me that we’re not limited in our imagination because we have a guy that we can do anything we want with him.”

And Jackson plans to do exactly that.

Maybe that’s the difference.

“We try to take the gray out of a quarterback's mind, play like you're in the backyard,” Jackson said. “You kind of play. But it's all driven by pinpoint accuracy by the quarterback, being able to throw very accurately and be smart and trust the guys that we put around you.”

(09-29-2015, 02:01 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: [ -> ]Flacco was 16th in 2014 with 3986 yards 62.1% completion 27 TDs and 12 INTs

Flacco had 280 more passing yards than Tony Romo but Romo completed 69.9% of his passes for 34 tds and only 9 ints.


So which of these two would you have rather had as your QB last year?

(09-29-2015, 08:47 PM)fredtoast Wrote: [ -> ]Flacco had 280 more passing yards than Tony Romo but Romo completed 69.9% of his passes for 34 tds and only 9 ints.


So which of these two would you have rather had as your QB last year?

Who would you rather have

QB1:
3118 yards, 64.1% completion, 26 TDs, 10 INTs

or

QB2:
4827 yards, 63% completion, 34 TDs, 8 INTs