(03-26-2021, 10:50 PM)CincinnatiBengals55 Wrote: The source is just me. I am just amazed and in love with the NFL draft so I evaluate prospects, analyze (for some), project, comp them and it's basically a personal hobby for me. It's always fun to look back and see how they've turned out. Obviously over time you notice trends and little things regarding the draft that you didn't notice before. You find things that at first glance don't matter but a half inch here or this many lbs here truly does matter in some of these guys draft cases and it is especially interesting when the outliers to these come because you are always looking to find what made this guy different then the trend. So regarding hit and miss, I just divide them into categories of Hit, Miss, and meh. Meh just means below expectations but not necessarily a miss. For example, Darqueze Dennard would be considered a meh. He was below expectations for what we expect in a first round pick but he found a nice little role in the slot and performed decent/well there. I separate it into expectations based on where you were drafted. The first 3 rounds it is 1-10, 11-20, 21-32. Then day 4 is slotted by draft numbers but by rounds, so just 4th round, 5tth round etc. 


To go back to my original post I am going to select the 2017 draft. 
Late first (20-32)
Garrett Bolles: Hit
Jarrad Davis: Miss, his performance aligns with an expected early-mid third round LB 
Charles Harris: Miss 
Evan Engram: Meh, Little below expectations, shown flashes, been injured. Grade TBD/Meh
Gareon Conley: Miss, not bad by any means but isn't showing the consistency of an expected first round corner. 
Jabrill Peppers: Meh, 
Takk Mckinley: Meh, not consistent but shown flashes. 
Tredavious White: Hit
Taco Charleton: Miss
David Njoku: Miss
TJ Watt: Hit
Rueben Foster: Miss
Ryan Ramcyzck: Hit

Hit:  4    Meh:   3   Miss: 6

Early Second (33-43)
Kevin King: Meh, Perfect example is comparing Kevin King and Gareon Conley. One was a miss and one was a meh with similar performance but one was first round and one was second round. Kevin King would be a miss if drafted in the first. 
Cam Robinson: Meh, debatable could be hit but safe side we'll say meh
Malik Mcdowell: Miss
Budda Baker: Hit
Zay Jones: Miss
Forrest Lamp: Miss
Marcus Maye: Hit
Curtis Samuel: Hit
Dalvin Cook: Hit
Sidney Jones: Miss

Hit 4   Meh    1   Miss 5

When determining these it is pretty straight forward as we can see.  In this draft the second round picks had a higher hit% than the late first round picks but obviously every draft is different and in most drafts the trends show only a slight increase in % for late first as opposed to early second.  I would appreciate it if you looked at this list and told me the ones you disagreed with in these categories just to get your opinion and see your reasoning but most of them are pretty straight forward. Hopefully I answered your question and if you have any more questions or concerns I'd love to answer them. At the end of the day I am not a professional or verified or anything like that, I'm just a fan like you so if you want to rule my takes about hit % and all that as invalid based on that I completely understand but I'm glad I could share a little bit with you. 

I appreciate time, effort, and thought put into your reply. But, that is a very small sample size for me to reach the same conclusion. And I think you’re overlooking some important variables and over valuing the Bengals 3rd round success.

(03-27-2021, 11:35 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Yuck.

You might have to go all the way back to Chris Henry to find a really good 3rd rounder for us.

Shipley in '10
MJ in '09
Caldwell and Sims in '08
Chilly rugby player in '06

We had a sweet spot there for a few years, in regards to solid contributors/role players.

(03-27-2021, 11:21 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: I appreciate time, effort, and thought put into your reply. But, that is a very small sample size for me to reach the same conclusion. And I think you’re overlooking some important variables and over valuing the Bengals 3rd round success.

I just picked a random class, Didn't feel like putting hours into a message board post lmao. You can believe it if you want but like I said I don't work for ESPN or anything so I understand if you don't. 

(03-27-2021, 11:56 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Shipley in '10
MJ in '09
Caldwell and Sims in '08
Chilly rugby player in '06

We had a sweet spot there for a few years, in regards to solid contributors/role players.

Clint Boling.

Soooo safe to say no Kerrigan?

(03-27-2021, 11:56 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Shipley in '10
MJ in '09
Caldwell and Sims in '08
Chilly rugby player in '06

We had a sweet spot there for a few years, in regards to solid contributors/role players.

MJ is the only above average player on this list. 

Andre Caldwell was pretty terrible.  Guy played in the league for 8 years and finished with 1,509 yards and 4 TD's.  He averaged 15 yards per game played (105)

Pat Sims was essentially a career backup.  In 8 years he was a full time starter only once.

Shipley was about average for a 3rd round rookie.  He got immediate playing time because outside of Chad and TO we had Jerome Simpson, who at the point had 1 career reception and was a huge bust, and previously mentioned bum that was Andre Caldwell.  But because he was a small white guy his 600 yards became worth about 1,000 yards in the eyes of fans, and his value was inflated.  Not a terrible pick, but we got a big problem if we're holding Jordan Shipley as a success story in the 3rd round.

Frostee Rucker, see Pat Sims.  Decent player but spent a lot of time as a depth piece.  There's nothing wrong with this but this doesn't strike me as an example of a success story either in regards to getting great value for the pick.  I'd say this is about average for that draft position.

No offense, but this is a rather unimpressive "sweet spot". 

(03-28-2021, 02:01 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Soooo safe to say no Kerrigan?

He’s still out there but I never got how he would fit in here. He requested a trade last year because he wanted to start and play more. He would have to be a third down/pass rush specialist with the Bengals, too so signing with Cincy would not get him what he wants (Hendrickson is getting good $ and Hubbard is a strong run defender so they will be on the field for the first two downs)

Only way I see him signing with the Bengals is if he finds that no other teams want him as a starter.

(03-28-2021, 01:58 PM)samhain Wrote: Clint Boling.

4th round

Their official Facebook updated that Jordan Evans was re-signed does he even get his own thread LOL?

(03-28-2021, 01:58 PM)samhain Wrote: Clint Boling.

Boling was 4th round.

Evans coming back is nice. One of our best special teamers. He is one of a number of FAs on defense that I thought could return for pretty cheap (Bynes, Daniels, Covington, Hunt).

LB corps was one of our weakest groups last year. Bynes out and no new additions at the moment. Gonna need massive internal improvement from our young LBs (Wilson, Pratt, ADG, Bailey).

Bengals still have $24m in cap space and yet they only signed 1 meaningful player on the OL.

(03-28-2021, 07:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals still have $24m in cap space and yet they only signed 1 meaningful player on the OL.

And FA isn't over, Draft is 4weeks away (All FA signings have slowed to a crawl), and then there is June 1st cuts. Lets wait and see what we open training camp with before we get all tipsy with resentment. (speaking to the whole fan base, not you necessarily)   

(03-28-2021, 03:47 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: 4th round

Who was 3rd that year?  Moch?

(03-28-2021, 07:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals still have $24m in cap space and yet they only signed 1 meaningful player on the OL.

Saw on Bleacher they are on Jarran Reed so maybe the money is being allocated for upgrading D so all 7 picks go O

(03-28-2021, 08:46 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Saw on Bleacher they are on Jarran Reed so maybe the money is being allocated for upgrading D so all 7 picks go O

I don't know about 7, but at least the first 3.  Other than Reiff, the whole "building around Burrow" narrative has fallen pretty flat.  It's to the point that I'd be on board with them trading back to get 2 seconds and using both of them on offense in addition to the first and 3rd.  My only concern on D if the sing Reed is still DE, and they may need to grab one in 2 or 3 even with Reed in the fold.

Really in this Free Agency class just where were all these wonderful players to sign? The OL class was extremely top heavy in both ability and salary. Thuney got a massive payday and I’m still surprised we got Reiff. There just were not that many out there that were actual upgrades. We kept Spain which I was happy to see, and we have stats in two different threads now showing that once we got Spain and XSF out there at the same time the interior play improved both on run and pass pretty dramatically.

The biggest issue the line has right now is utter lack of depth - the quality level drop off from Spain and XSF to Redmond and MJ is like falling off a cliff. Johnson and Adeniji are either raw (Adeniji) or still a question mark (Johnson). So, this position group was always going to need draft attention more than FA just by the nature of this year’s FA group.

In Free Agency news, is there any talk of discussions with Mike Daniels on a return? Would like to see him as a depth piece again for the D-line.

(03-28-2021, 07:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals still have $24m in cap space and yet they only signed 1 meaningful player on the OL.

Been trying to stay balanced in my thinking, but I'll go ahead and vent.

I still believe that Lawson was the better DE and we should have just signed him.

We blew the opportunity to sign a solid guard with no injury/ performance issues when we let Zeitler sign with someone else.   While I'm sensitive to the fact that he may just not have wanted to come here, and wanted to play for a more competitive team.   But he and Reiff were the sweet spot we needed to insure a solid improvement to the OL

I'm also sensitive that there are some really good interior O linemen in the upcoming draft.   But I have no confidence we will draft them, preferring to sign the best tackle available in the 2nd round.  While that IS a priority, I believe there is more tackle depth in the 3rd/ 4th round and the biggest concern on the O line is the interior at this point.

I think it is too late to find a really reliable upgrade at guard in free agency at this point.  They keep dicking around signing mediocre players.   In my opinion either sign a really good end (Kerrigan - whose ship has sailed) or resign one of your upcoming challenging players (I'm thinking Bates).

We'll see.   But my gut tells me two things:

1. We missed the boat in getting our O-line and D-line upgraded.  And
2. We should have moved on from Anarumo.  The smell out there says that the players don't like the guy and are all wishing he was gone.
   

I realize I am spouting from a pretty ignorant position.

But I had the same gut about weapons of mass destruction in the Bush administration.

(03-28-2021, 09:59 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: In Free Agency news, is there any talk of discussions with Mike Daniels on a return? Would like to see him as a depth piece again for the D-line.

Would like to see Daniels return myself.