rough.

I am not too impressed with this crop of O-Line (I have been known to over-analyze) but if we go Chase in the first, Randuz looks legit. Deonte Brown is similar to Michael Onwenu who had a good year so he is an alternative if we think we can rely on Reiff at RT for one year.

Alaric Jackson is a coin flip but considering our later picks under Zach Taylor, this is a slam dunk if we get him in the 4th.

I don’t have any hot takes per say besides I think Creed Humphrey is overrated and that I think there will be a greater drop off after the top of the first.

All of this boils down to what is the marginal value of drafting Sewell over Chase and vs same position in second round. If we view each player as increasing number of successful plays, who wins?

Does Chase get x amount of more yards per catch? More contested catches? Than say Marshall or Toney? What about next year?

Does the extra three sacks Runduz potentially allows mean that it makes sense to draft Sewell? What about the push he gets in the run game vs Slater?

We are lucky to be in the position we are, my vote is Chase because there are few viable WR in the second+ this year and we might not be in position to draft a boundary WR next year.

Dillon Randuz is an underweight LT-only prospect who is 2 to 3 years from contributing as a NFL starter.

Deonte Brown is entirely unsuitable to a wide zone scheme that Pollact will run.

Creed Humphrey is not overrated in the slightest. He is one of the top IOL in this deep OL draft and seriously well above Billy Price as a draft prospect.

Not too impressed with this crop of OL?!? Weird take.

(04-12-2021, 12:17 AM)CoachGeorge Wrote: Dillon Randuz is an underweight LT-only prospect who is 2 to 3 years from contributing as a NFL starter.

Deonte Brown is entirely unsuitable to a wide zone scheme that Pollact will run.

Creed Humphrey is not overrated in the slightest.  He is one of the top IOL in this deep OL draft and seriously well above Billy Price as a draft prospect.

Not too impressed with this crop of OL?!?  Weird take.

Do you know anything about Walker Little? He's a guy that would probably be a top of Round 1 prospect if not for his having missed so much time. What tape we have of him from 2 years ago is pretty darn strong. Do you know anything more or different about him?

(04-12-2021, 12:27 AM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: Do you know anything about Walker Little? He's a guy that would probably be a top of Round 1 prospect if not for his having missed so much time. What tape we have of him from 2 years ago is pretty darn strong. Do you know anything more or different about him?

I know quite a bit about Little. I am a west coast - PAC 12 guy. Little was certainly a top HS prospect but Sewell in my eyes completely outplayed him in 2018. I do like Little but not on a team like the Bengals who need more of a sure thing especially in 2021 or 2022 at the latest. The potential is there however. Some are taking about a 2nd round grade. That’s way to dangerous. If there is any medical risk prospect that I would be in all is Landon Dickerson who completely showed his worth on the field unlike Little.

(04-12-2021, 12:17 AM)CoachGeorge Wrote: Dillon Randuz is an underweight LT-only prospect who is 2 to 3 years from contributing as a NFL starter.

Deonte Brown is entirely unsuitable to a wide zone scheme that Pollact will run.

Creed Humphrey is not overrated in the slightest.  He is one of the top IOL in this deep OL draft and seriously well above Billy Price as a draft prospect.

Not too impressed with this crop of OL?!?  Weird take.

I like Dillon Radunz at Left Guard in a wide zone even in year one. I'm less worried about his size and more his tendency to play upright. He did look like he cleaned that up at the Senior Bowl though.

(04-11-2021, 11:36 PM)willieFANderson Wrote: rough.

I am not too impressed with this crop of O-Line (I have been known to over-analyze) but if we go Chase in the first, Randuz looks legit. Deonte Brown is similar to Michael Onwenu who had a good year so he is an alternative if we think we can rely on Reiff at RT for one year.

Alaric Jackson is a coin flip but considering our later picks under Zach Taylor, this is a slam dunk if we get him in the 4th.

I don’t have any hot takes per say besides I think Creed Humphrey is overrated and that I think there will be a greater drop off after the top of the first.

All of this boils down to what is the marginal value of drafting Sewell over Chase and vs same position in second round. If we view each player as increasing number of successful plays, who wins?

Does Chase get x amount of more yards per catch? More contested catches? Than say Marshall or Toney? What about next year?

Does the extra three sacks Runduz potentially allows mean that it makes sense to draft Sewell? What about the push he gets in the run game vs Slater?

We are lucky to be in the position we are, my vote is Chase because there are few viable WR in the second+ this year and we might not be in position to draft a boundary WR next year.

I see it a bit opposite.. we are in a position to draft the clear top tackle in the draft which is more rare than top WRs at #5 .. so take Sewell, also I see a few Wrs still there in 2nd round worthy.. 

To your point on yards vs. sacks.. to me not a equal comparison, since more sacks can correlate to injuries for your QB more . 

If you go Chase at #5 I think realistically there’s a good chance guys like Darrisaw, Jenkins , Mayfield, Vera -Tucker are all gone before #38 I’d put Leatherwood at 50/50. Eichenberg might be the most realistic option at #38 far as tackle goes. I like Dickerson but his extensive injury history concerns me and I’m always skeptical of small school guys like Randuz and a guy like Meinerz who played D3. A guy like Walker little intrigues me but he hasn’t played basically since 2018. I think some of us are underestimating the offensive line run. There are a ton of offensive line needy teams picking before us at #38 and some of these teams have multiple picks. Teams with multiple picks include Dolphins x3 Jets x 2 Jags x 2. Then teams with offensive line needs include , Chargers , Giants , Vikings, Raiders, Bears, Steelers, Panthers, Lions , Titans and Cardinals.

(04-12-2021, 01:37 AM)Synric Wrote: I like Dillon Radunz at Left Guard in a wide zone even in year one. I'm less worried about his size and more his tendency to play upright. He did look like he cleaned that up at the Senior Bowl though.

I am always attracted to small college players. I am a big believer in underdog picks.

Dillon Radunz is a very intriguing pick with a very nice upside in the right system.

I believe he is is a LT-only pick because he lacks the natural short-area upper body strength necessary to play as a NFL guard. He was a 265 pound freshman and is not a natural “big” guy.

He has nice footwork that could translate to LT despite shorter hands and arms typical for the position.

His run blocking is well ahead of his pass blocking. I have little concern that he could learn pass blocking but that could take some time.

He has shown little lateral mobility which is vitally necessary in a wide zone scheme. He most certainly a gap-power or inside zone kind of guy.

In short, he brings little to the Bengals especially in the year 2021 when there are many OL who could contribute right out of the box.

This is actually what makes this draft really interesting. We may see guys in the 2nd who we'd never believe simply because of how certain teams valued other players differently.

Most NFL personnel execs really like this OL class but the rankings are all over the map. The 3rd OT for one team might be the 6th or 7th for another.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 12, 2021

(04-12-2021, 03:23 PM)Au165 Wrote: This is actually what makes this draft really interesting. We may see guys in the 2nd who we'd never believe simply because of how certain teams valued other players differently.

Most NFL personnel execs really like this OL class but the rankings are all over the map. The 3rd OT for one team might be the 6th or 7th for another.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 12, 2021

That’s an interesting viewpoint but not really that surprising when you consider the following:

1. COVID- some guys are off some boards/taking a hit on others for choosing to sit out.
2. So many closely packed guys with 2nd or 3rd round grades.
3. Scheme fit. With gap-power and inside zone vs. wide or outside zone
4. A large number of tweeners. Guys with tackle skillsets but questions about length, arm size and/or hand size.

(04-12-2021, 04:51 PM)CoachGeorge Wrote: That’s an interesting viewpoint but not really that surprising when you consider the following:

1. COVID- some guys are off some boards/taking a hit on others for choosing to sit out.
2. So many closely packed guys with 2nd or 3rd round grades.
3. Scheme fit.  With gap-power and inside zone vs. wide or outside zone
4. A large number of tweeners. Guys with tackle skillsets but questions about length, arm size and/or hand size.

I saw Jeremiah or someone else mentioned a guy like Leatherwood who some teams have as a top 40 and others a 4th rounder. I think this draft has the potential to be one where everyone comes away thinking they got steals left and right simply because the boards are so scattered. 

The way I see it, if we exit this draft without a legitimate #1 WR, we're...fine. It's definitely not ideal and I think our offensive output will suffer from that over the course of the year, but we wouldn't be in any real danger of ruining the team's future (no one expects playoffs this coming year anyway. We're looking for progression and development more than anything).

If we exit this draft without a legitimate upgrade somewhere along the Oline, I'd consider that a pretty massive failure and would legitimately risk the team's future if Burrow were to get injured again.

That's mostly why I am team Sewell.

If we get Chase, I'll still be happy. He's a great prospect and the idea of "getting the band back together" is almost too enticing of a story to resist (honestly, if Devonta Smith was the consensus #1 WR in the draft, I seriously think we'd be Sewell 100%. The narrative behind the Chase pick is almost as powerful as the value of the pick itself), but we don't really need a #1 receiver. We need a deep threat. That can come from the #2 receiver or the slot. There is a lot of speed in this draft at WR and I think we could get a really good vertical threat at 38.

I'm less certain we can find a player who can slot right in at guard or tackle on day 1 in the 2nd round. The players there all have really big questions marks from their technique to their play strength and I think there is going to be a major run on offensive linemen at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round. If we don't take Sewell, everyone in the entire universe will know we're targeting Oline in round 2 and could easily trade in front of us if they need to secure their player. And, since the Bengals hate trading up, we'd probably just watch it happen.

I still have nightmares of 2019 when all those OTs and OGs went right before our pick, so we traded down and took Drew ***** Sample...

You got a franchise LT right there at 5 with Sewell. I just really, really hope the Bengals do the easy thing and fill their biggest need with who many consider the best LT prospect in a long time.

We have a slightly better record of drafting WRs in the 2nd round anyway :) (Cris Collinsworth, Carl Pickens, Darnay Scott, Chad Johnson, Jerome Simpson, Tyler Boyd in the 2nd vs David Verser, Eddie Brown, Tim McGee, Peter Warrick, AJ Green, John Ross in the 1st in the last 40 years.)

(04-12-2021, 03:23 PM)Au165 Wrote: This is actually what makes this draft really interesting. We may see guys in the 2nd who we'd never believe simply because of how certain teams valued other players differently.

Most NFL personnel execs really like this OL class but the rankings are all over the map. The 3rd OT for one team might be the 6th or 7th for another.

— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) April 12, 2021

So our 2nd round pick at the OL will be a Drew Sample like reach....

Every other team will few the guy as a 3rd or 4th rounder and we will take him at 38.

(04-12-2021, 06:27 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The way I see it, if we exit this draft without a legitimate #1 WR, we're...fine. It's definitely not ideal and I think our offensive output will suffer from that over the course of the year, but we wouldn't be in any real danger of ruining the team's future (no one expects playoffs this coming year anyway. We're looking for progression and development more than anything).

If we exit this draft without a legitimate upgrade somewhere along the Oline, I'd consider that a pretty massive failure and would legitimately risk the team's future if Burrow were to get injured again.

That's mostly why I am team Sewell.

If we get Chase, I'll still be happy. He's a great prospect and the idea of "getting the band back together" is almost too enticing of a story to resist (honestly, if Devonta Smith was the consensus #1 WR in the draft, I seriously think we'd be Sewell 100%. The narrative behind the Chase pick is almost as powerful as the value of the pick itself), but we don't really need a #1 receiver. We need a deep threat. That can come from the #2 receiver or the slot. There is a lot of speed in this draft at WR and I think we could get a really good vertical threat at 38.

I'm less certain we can find a player who can slot right in at guard or tackle on day 1 in the 2nd round. The players there all have really big questions marks from their technique to their play strength and I think there is going to be a major run on offensive linemen at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second round. If we don't take Sewell, everyone in the entire universe will know we're targeting Oline in round 2 and could easily trade in front of us if they need to secure their player. And, since the Bengals hate trading up, we'd probably just watch it happen.

I still have nightmares of 2019 when all those OTs and OGs went right before our pick, so we traded down and took Drew ***** Sample...

You got a franchise LT right there at 5 with Sewell. I just really, really hope the Bengals do the easy thing and fill their biggest need with who many consider the best LT prospect in a long time.

We have a slightly better record of drafting WRs in the 2nd round anyway :) (Cris Collinsworth, Carl Pickens, Darnay Scott, Chad Johnson, Jerome Simpson, Tyler Boyd in the 2nd vs David Verser, Eddie Brown, Tim McGee, Peter Warrick, AJ Green, John Ross in the 1st in the last 40 years.)

Great post agree 100% it should be about protecting Burrow long term it wasn't just one freak ACL injury he was taking way to many hits before the injury. Think Andrew Luck instead of Palmer in 2005. If you don't want Sewell because you think he's not gonna be a great pro that's fine by me but assuming both Chase/ Sewell will both be studs I would take the tackle. I think this team needs multiple long term solutions on the line even if they take Sewell at #5 when you look at the current offensive line. And that offensive line run will get crazy look at the teams picking before us.

LT -    Williams has played 10 games in 2 years / I like him but needs to prove he can stay healthy. 
LG -  Spain 1 year spot gap/ graded out poorly. Yes he's better than Jordan but that's not saying much/ slightly below average on a good day
C-   Hopkins average at best coming off a week 17 ACL / Price 1st Rd. bust going in year #4 
RG - XSF most overrated player on the roster. Cut by the Titians in 2018, signed by Dallas to backup a rookie in Connor Williams. Filled in for 4 games when Williams got hurt than broke his leg. He played 5 games for the Bengals and graded out by PFF at 59.1 and I don't need PFF I just use my eyes and XFS wasn't good. Yup he's better than Jordan but again that's not saying much. 
RT- Reiff liked the signing but he's a 33 year old one year spot gap 

(04-13-2021, 10:44 AM)lone bengal Wrote: Great post agree 100% it should be about protecting Burrow long term it wasn't just one freak ACL injury he was taking way to many hits before the injury. Think Andrew Luck instead of Palmer in 2005. If you don't want Sewell because you think he's not gonna be a great pro that's fine by me but assuming both Chase/ Sewell will both be studs I would take the tackle. I think this team needs multiple long term solutions on the line even if they take Sewell at #5 when you look at the current offensive line. And that offensive line run will get crazy look at the teams picking before us.

LT -    Williams has played 10 games in 2 years / I like him but needs to prove he can stay healthy. 
LG -  Spain 1 year spot gap/ graded out poorly. Yes he's better than Jordan but that's not saying much/ slightly below average on a good day
C-   Hopkins average at best coming off a week 17 ACL / Price 1st Rd. bust going in year #4 
RG - XSF most overrated player on the roster. Cut by the Titians in 2018, signed by Dallas to backup a rookie in Connor Williams. Filled in for 4 games when Williams got hurt than broke his leg. He played 5 games for the Bengals and graded out by PFF at 59.1 and I don't need PFF I just use my eyes and XFS wasn't good. Yup he's better than Jordan but again that's not saying much. 
RT- Reiff liked the signing but he's a 33 year old one year spot gap 

I totally agree with this. Honestly outside of Williams if he can stay healthy, we have no long term solutions at any other position on the OL. It's almost as if the entire line needs rebuilt right now. Reiff is a good FA signing, but he's here 1 maybe 2 years. Will Hopkins be 100%? Will his play drop, and he's not far from 30 either. Spain, XSF are not long term solutions. None of those guys are long term solutions. What if one of them, or more than one gets hurt? We dont even have depth, unless we want more of Jordan and Redmond. I'm of the opinion that we have to upgrade RT, LG, RG and C asap. Our OL has been patchwork for too long now. We have a QB worth protecting and if we dont we are flat out stupid. I guess we'll see what ZT and Tobin come up with. 

NFL teams can win games with solid defense and a good running game. That's a proven formula to win in the NFL and will forever be. Do that first, then watch Burrow really shine even with a bunch of average WR's. Get your WR superstar after you build the core of the team. Thats how I see it. 

(04-13-2021, 10:44 AM)lone bengal Wrote: Great post agree 100% it should be about protecting Burrow long term it wasn't just one freak ACL injury he was taking way to many hits before the injury. Think Andrew Luck instead of Palmer in 2005. If you don't want Sewell because you think he's not gonna be a great pro that's fine by me but assuming both Chase/ Sewell will both be studs I would take the tackle. I think this team needs multiple long term solutions on the line even if they take Sewell at #5 when you look at the current offensive line. And that offensive line run will get crazy look at the teams picking before us.

LT -    Williams has played 10 games in 2 years / I like him but needs to prove he can stay healthy. 
LG -  Spain 1 year spot gap/ graded out poorly. Yes he's better than Jordan but that's not saying much/ slightly below average on a good day
C-   Hopkins average at best coming off a week 17 ACL / Price 1st Rd. bust going in year #4 
RG - XSF most overrated player on the roster. Cut by the Titians in 2018, signed by Dallas to backup a rookie in Connor Williams. Filled in for 4 games when Williams got hurt than broke his leg. He played 5 games for the Bengals and graded out by PFF at 59.1 and I don't need PFF I just use my eyes and XFS wasn't good. Yup he's better than Jordan but again that's not saying much. 
RT- Reiff liked the signing but he's a 33 year old one year spot gap 

Exactly. If the Bengals think that Chase is far and away a better prospect, then I say take him. I don't know what the Bengals talent evaluators are thinking, but if they're close in terms of their status as prospects, I think Sewell should be the pick.

Like you said, Williams isn't really great at staying healthy. And our depth behind Reiff and Williams is...Fred Johnson and Hakeem Adeniji right now. Taking Sewell does two things: immediately fills the need at guard and covers tackle for injury and future, with Reiff likely being a 1 or maybe 2 year hold over.

I can't wait for draft night so this debate can be settled haha.

(04-13-2021, 11:53 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Exactly. If the Bengals think that Chase is far and away a better prospect, then I say take him. I don't know what the Bengals talent evaluators are thinking, but if they're close in terms of their status as prospects, I think Sewell should be the pick.

Like you said, Williams isn't really great at staying healthy. And our depth behind Reiff and Williams is...Fred Johnson and Hakeem Adeniji right now. Taking Sewell does two things: immediately fills the need at guard and covers tackle for injury and future, with Reiff likely being a 1 or maybe 2 year hold over.

I can't wait for draft night so this debate can be settled haha.

Yup I don't want the Bengals reaching at #5 if the scouts don't like Sewell than I'm fine with Chase. If we know both will be studs/ rated the same  I'd go with the tackle. I'd laugh if Atlanta took Sewell or Chase lol. I don't think this debate will be settled on draft night either, fans will compare both players throughout there careers.  Sewell misses a block we shoulda took Chase , Chase has a drop we shoulda took Sewell and vice versa. 

(04-13-2021, 11:28 AM)bengaloo Wrote: I totally agree with this. Honestly outside of Williams if he can stay healthy, we have no long term solutions at any other position on the OL. It's almost as if the entire line needs rebuilt right now. Reiff is a good FA signing, but he's here 1 maybe 2 years. Will Hopkins be 100%? Will his play drop, and he's not far from 30 either. Spain, XSF are not long term solutions. None of those guys are long term solutions. What if one of them, or more than one gets hurt? We dont even have depth, unless we want more of Jordan and Redmond. I'm of the opinion that we have to upgrade RT, LG, RG and C asap. Our OL has been patchwork for too long now. We have a QB worth protecting and if we dont we are flat out stupid. I guess we'll see what ZT and Tobin come up with. 

NFL teams can win games with solid defense and a good running game. That's a proven formula to win in the NFL and will forever be. Do that first, then watch Burrow really shine even with a bunch of average WR's. Get your WR superstar after you build the core of the team. Thats how I see it. 

Best case scenario Williams stays healthy/ plays well and Sewell lives up to pick #5 and you'd have your two future bookends both on rookie deals. Then maybe pick up a guard in a later round who could be ready to start by year 2. You could even double up in Rd.2 at 0 -line if the values there. Far as center you hope Hopkins can return to forum and Price can just hold the fort down if Hopkins isn't ready for the 1st few games.