(04-20-2021, 11:28 PM)Burma Wrote: I was actually really surprised at how abysmal the success rate of 1st round WR has been. I read this thread and started to do a bit more digging.  I assume I was influenced by the success of the 2020 1st round WRs, but once I started to look at this it was shocking how much of an outlier that class was. I found this particularly shocking, bear in mind this was up to the 2020 draft

• 19 of the 77 wide receivers taken in the first round this century have or had fewer than 100 career receptions in the NFL.
  

This was also interesting:


Sources:
https://www.milehighreport.com/2020/4/23/21232643/success-rate-of-first-round-wide-receivers-this-century

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/

Good stuff!

While every prospect in the draft is a gamble, it is really easy to see that WR is the hardest gamble to predict correctly. 

I would bet that it has to do with drafting traits more than actual football skills and it's more prevalent at WR than other positions.

I think in the case of Chase vs Sewell it's flipped though. I think Chase is much more realized as a player and Sewell is the one that needs more of the technical work. At least Pollack can do that. Turner would have been one of the worst coaches possible for Sewell.

(04-20-2021, 06:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Yeah, for slot guys. And we’re not moving Boyd to the outside no matter who we draft.

Double slot formations are a thing.  This TE class is terrible after Pitts, so maybe having two slot WR out there is the way to go if someone falls who can play.  

(04-21-2021, 12:25 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Double slot formations are a thing.  This TE class is terrible after Pitts, so maybe having two slot WR out there is the way to go if someone falls who can play.  

If we take Sewell, and don’t trade up for a Marshall or a Bateman, I’d almost rather just kick the can down the road wrt WR. I don’t really want to waste a 2nd on someone out of desperation and need. Just double up on OL (which will probably be the BPA anyway) or go EDGE. I am just not very enamored with this WR class outside a handful of the top guys.

(04-21-2021, 01:00 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: If we take Sewell, and don’t trade up for a Marshall or a Bateman, I’d almost rather just kick the can down the road wrt WR. I don’t really want to waste a 2nd on someone out of desperation and need. Just double up on OL (which will probably be the BPA anyway) or go EDGE. I am just not very enamored with this WR class outside a handful of the top guys.

They have to keep feeding that room imo.  I'm of the mind that they don't need all-pros, but that they do need competent role players.  Higgins and Boyd are underrated.  A deep speed threat, a #2 who can beat press/has a great 10 yard split, a backup/second slot guy who can get yards after catch, etc. - those types of players, so long as they were good enough to fill their roles, would open the offense up and allow for the Higgins/Boyd to feast.  That's really all that they need to cook with gas IF they have the protection and a steady run game.

The "bust" and "success" metrics in this thread are really interesting btw.  I'm of the mind that both Sewell and Chase are going to be good, if not great, players.  Which one moves the needle the most, assuming that neither busts?  Who would be the most "rare" and difficult to replace?  I'm of the mind that we saw the answer to that question play out in front of our eyes each and every time that we saw this team with AJ Green in his prime make the playoffs.  A WR1 can be schemed out of a game - a star studded OL protecting a great QB cannot.

(04-20-2021, 05:44 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Mike Greenberg the host of this years draft was on 1530 today with Mo Egger in the 4 PM hour.

Mo asked him straight up would you go Chase or Sewell. Greenberg's reply, when you have the chance to get the big time tackle, you have to take it.

He said he'd take Sewell or Slater, but his best proposal was to trade back to 9 with Denver who he believe will want to come get a QB and then you still get Sewell or Slater at 9.

The biggest take-away from things was his stat on OL in the 1st vs WR in the 1st.

He talked about Hit Rate on picks. This is a stat that shows how many times a 1st round pick signs a second contract with the team that drafted them. Means they were productive and the team extends them, therefore the pick was a hit.

Highest hit rate in round one by position group, the o-line at 60%.

Lowest hit rate in round one by position group.... WR at 25%

I wonder how many years this goes back, and what determined a "hit" as there were a lot of duds in the first round of offensive linemen that come to mind.  Recently, the WR position has been very solid.  

It is still irrelevant as what Greeny fails to have the depth of knowledge regarding our team needs and the depth of talent in what position groups in the draft.  The WR talent is top heavy.  The offensive line talent is extensive and the Bengals can get a very good quality OT/G prospect in Rd 2.  Chase opens up the entire offense.  Penei Sewell does not.  He would likely start at G and projects to be our long term solution at RT.  There are plenty of solid RT candidates that have played more and against better competition than Sewell.  People love him for his size and agility at his age.  Not his technique.  Don't get me wrong.  The guy is a heck of a prospect, but he simply doesn't fit the team as well as Chase and not with the talent in this draft.  

Chase is not only a threat in his own right, but he opens things up for Higgins, Boyd and the TEs more than any other wideout prospect in this draft.

Bobby Hart is gone and replaced with a clear upgrade. The team will presumably draft some guards that will push Michael Jordan further down the depth chart. Jim Turner was shit-canned and replaced with a better coach. In other words, the three biggest liabilities on the line last year are neutralized one way or the other.

Improving the offensive line is not contingent on drafting Penei Sewell. Given the type of receiver we need, I would say that improving the wide receiver corps is contingent on drafting Ja'Marr Chase. It's either that or you draft Penei Sewell and cross your fingers that Bateman, Toney, or Marshall Jr. drop to 38.

The success rate being so bad for WRs in the first round it must drop off drastically for 2-7.

I'm would venture to guess Offensive Line has one of the highest success rate for a player to start at least half their career in all rounds.

(04-21-2021, 10:29 AM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: They have to keep feeding that room imo.  I'm of the mind that they don't need all-pros, but that they do need competent role players.  Higgins and Boyd are underrated.  A deep speed threat, a #2 who can beat press/has a great 10 yard split, a backup/second slot guy who can get yards after catch, etc. - those types of players, so long as they were good enough to fill their roles, would open the offense up and allow for the Higgins/Boyd to feast.  That's really all that they need to cook with gas IF they have the protection and a steady run game.

The "bust" and "success" metrics in this thread are really interesting btw.  I'm of the mind that both Sewell and Chase are going to be good, if not great, players.  Which one moves the needle the most, assuming that neither busts?  Who would be the most "rare" and difficult to replace?  I'm of the mind that we saw the answer to that question play out in front of our eyes each and every time that we saw this team with AJ Green in his prime make the playoffs.  A WR1 can be schemed out of a game - a star studded OL protecting a great QB cannot.

Sure they can. Pass rushers will just attack the weakest links. And the top guys are moving around more than ever these days. Garrett even lined up at DT last year in one of the Cleveland games to exploit Fred Johnson at RG.

Best case you draft Chase and you draft multiple good young lineman who can contribute now or long term in 2022. You could draft Sewell and he's good but you could need a WR 1 going to 2022. You could get Chase but the lineman you draft aren't ready or good in 2022 and you have long term questions at both guards and RT , assuming Hopkins comes back to form and with Williams staying healthy.

(04-21-2021, 10:51 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Sure they can. Pass rushers will just attack the weakest links. And the top guys are moving around more than ever these days. Garrett even lined up at DT last year in one of the Cleveland games to exploit Fred Johnson at RG.

Exactly why you don't want guys like Fred Johnson at RG lol.  How would Garrett fare on the inside trying to play run D against an all pro OG? Or a perfectly executed trap play?

When you draft CBs, WRs, and RBs like it's arena league you wind up having to start those types of guys.

I just wonder how people would feel about Chase if he were from another school, holding all other variables constant. Actually I don't wonder. It makes my skin crawl lol. We would not be here having this debate. Even if we were, we'd be considering the merits of Smith and Waddle too, just like any other team. But I've scarcely heard their names at all. It's telling. We don't want a WR- we want Chase. We're not prioritizing wideouts- we're prioritizing Chase. We say it's about "separation" or "downfield speed" or some other arbitrary factor- when we really mean that it's about Chase. We can't get out of our own way. It has to be Chase for Chase's sake, to heck with what the rest of the league would do. This is why we're the Bengals.

I know I'm preaching to the choir. Just felt the need to vent. And yes, about Chase lol.

Bob McGinn put out an article on The Athletic today about Wrs, he asked scouts to rank them 1-5 with first place getting five points and 5th getting 1. Out of a possible 80 points, Chase got 80. The last guy to do that was Calvin Johnson. Waddle came in with 53 and Smith 52. It's not just the Bengals that think highly of Chase in spite of what the rest of the league thinks.

(04-21-2021, 01:08 PM)blt4584 Wrote: Bob McGinn put out an article on The Athletic today about Wrs, he asked scouts to rank them 1-5 with first place getting five points and 5th getting 1. Out of a possible 80 points, Chase got 80. The last guy to do that was Calvin Johnson. Waddle came in with 53 and Smith 52. It's not just the Bengals that think highly of Chase in spite of what the rest of the league thinks.

I follow the draft year-round. That's hype. Chase is WR1 in a class that is anything but top-heavy (no pun intended). He wasn't even WR1 on his own team. More importantly for me, he's distanced himself from his peers without having played a game. As recently as January, he had a modest Top 10 label. Now he's supposedly launched into a new stratosphere lol. It's nonsense. Skill players have been milked like this at draft time since time immemorial. 

He'll be a good player. A lot of these guys will be good players. But the Megatron comparisons need to stop, I don't care how they draw the link. No one in this class is in that category. It's pure sales. Megatron was unimpeachable. No one bothered to argue his skills for "separation" and "physicality at the LOS" because there was no need. His results spoke for themselves and it would have been merely pointing out the obvious.

No one actually compared him to Johnson from a skill set point, just that the last time the scouts in that survey had a unanimous #1 was Johnson in 2007. Those are two different ideas.

And Chase was getting extremely high grades for the 2021 draft since the 2019 season. The only thing that was making him "fall"was that teams at the top are in a QB craze.

(04-21-2021, 10:46 AM)Synric Wrote: The success rate being so bad for WRs in the first round it must drop off drastically for 2-7.

I'm would venture to guess Offensive Line has one of the highest success rate for a player to start at least half their career in all rounds.

Listened to Dehner/Morrison podcast this morning and they talking about this as well.  The odds of getting a 1000 yard receiver in even the 2nd round drop off dramatically which might seem odd to Bengals fans because of our success there, but we are an extreme outlier. 

So I don't think the argument holds much weight for tis pick.  There are so many other factors that go into it.

Chase is almost the perfect weapon for Burrow and this offense given his ability and familiarity with Burrow.   He is like a RB in a WR body and can turn short catches into huge gains, along with being a deep threat.  Really, he just has it all. 

(04-21-2021, 10:31 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I wonder how many years this goes back, and what determined a "hit" as there were a lot of duds in the first round of offensive linemen that come to mind.  Recently, the WR position has been very solid.  

It is still irrelevant as what Greeny fails to have the depth of knowledge regarding our team needs and the depth of talent in what position groups in the draft.  The WR talent is top heavy.  The offensive line talent is extensive and the Bengals can get a very good quality OT/G prospect in Rd 2.  Chase opens up the entire offense.  Penei Sewell does not.  He would likely start at G and projects to be our long term solution at RT.  There are plenty of solid RT candidates that have played more and against better competition than Sewell.  People love him for his size and agility at his age.  Not his technique.  Don't get me wrong.  The guy is a heck of a prospect, but he simply doesn't fit the team as well as Chase and not with the talent in this draft.  

I could not possibly disagree with you anymore on everything you just said.

WR is not top heavy. I see 10 to 12 really great WRs that will contribute in this draft. and stand by my belief when it is all said and done and we look back at this draft Dyami Brown will be one of the best WRs in this draft. He is projected in the 2nd round.

The offensive line talent goes deep sure... but for "solid" type of guys and decent type of guys. But guys with the high ceiling and abilities of Sewell and Slater..... that is the end of the list.

Reiff would move to RG (as he has said he is willing to and has played there before plus, he is on a 1 year deal) and anyone that counts on Jonah as our long-term LT has faith in a total unknown that can't stay on the field. Sewell projects as a LT, if you are selling him as less then that, it is purely a bias for Chase, nothing else.

Chase opens up the offense? No more then any other WR we draft that can run a deep route. Pitts would open it up more, Sewell would open it up more. Chase can provide the explosive play from time to time, but at 6 feet tall, he isn't some unique target like Pitts would be. As for Sewell, having a line that can open up running lanes and provide a clean pocket does more for the offense then any one skill player. 

Drafting Chase is building backwards, this is what bad teams do... see the Raiders and Lions, who dumped all kinds of draft capital into 1st round WRs when they had bad teams. Guess what they won... that would be nothing.

Smart teams. Build lines, get franchise QB, and supply him with weapons after. 

So, if we want to be a dumb team, poorly built and waste 2021 for no reason, draft Chase.

Want to have a shot to win one day? Draft Sewell and Meinerz or Cleveland to shore up the line for the next 7 to 10 years and get anyone of the top 5 WRs next year who all will be labeled just as high as Chase. For example, George Pickens will be labeled the next A.J. Green as he comes out of Georgia. 

(04-21-2021, 02:31 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I could not possibly disagree with you anymore on everything you just said.

WR is not top heavy. I see 10 to 12 really great WRs that will contribute in this draft. and stand by my belief when it is all said and done and we look back at this draft Dyami Brown will be one of the best WRs in this draft. He is projected in the 2nd round.

The offensive line talent goes deep sure... but for "solid" type of guys and decent type of guys. But guys with the high ceiling and abilities of Sewell and Slater..... that is the end of the list.

Reiff would move to RG (as he has said he is willing to and has played there before plus, he is on a 1 year deal) and anyone that counts on Jonah as our long-term LT has faith in a total unknown that can't stay on the field. Sewell projects as a LT, if you are selling him as less then that, it is purely a bias for Chase, nothing else.

Chase opens up the offense? No more then any other WR we draft that can run a deep route. Pitts would open it up more, Sewell would open it up more. Chase can provide the explosive play from time to time, but at 6 feet tall, he isn't some unique target like Pitts would be. As for Sewell, having a line that can open up running lanes and provide a clean pocket does more for the offense then any one skill player. 

Drafting Chase is building backwards, this is what bad teams do... see the Raiders and Lions, who dumped all kinds of draft capital into 1st round WRs when they had bad teams. Guess what they won... that would be nothing.

Smart teams. Build lines, get franchise QB, and supply him with weapons after. 

So, if we want to be a dumb team, poorly built and waste 2021 for no reason, draft Chase.

Want to have a shot to win one day? Draft Sewell and Meinerz or Cleveland to shore up the line for the next 7 to 10 years and get anyone of the top 5 WRs next year who all will be labeled just as high as Chase. For example, George Pickens will be labeled the next A.J. Green as he comes out of Georgia. 

Are you saying unequivocally that Sewell is the only olineman 
In.this draft that can.come in and start day 1 and it can pay off 
Divends from.the get go.?
No other OG or OT can provide what Sewell can?

(04-20-2021, 06:13 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Yeah, for slot guys. And we’re not moving Boyd to the outside no matter who we draft.

Hardly...

Bateman, Marshall, Moore can play outside, Collins, Brown.  Theres plenty of guys.  

You never buy into the "I can get a guy later" when it comes to drafting.  We have no idea where the run on linemen starts, maybe there's not a run on WR.  You just never know.

I'll take the best player at 5.  There's 2 elite guys that will for sure be there.  You take one of them - the highest graded guy.,

(04-21-2021, 12:53 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Exactly why you don't want guys like Fred Johnson at RG lol.  How would Garrett fare on the inside trying to play run D against an all pro OG? Or a perfectly executed trap play?

When you draft CBs, WRs, and RBs like it's arena league you wind up having to start those types of guys.

That’s why no one is advocating waiting until the 4th (Jordan) or 6th (Adeniji) to hit OL this year. Day 2 is the sweet spot.