(05-06-2021, 03:34 PM)OSUfan Wrote: The average is 2.5 years if you take it as a whole. If you go to just offensive linemen the average is 3.5 years.

What is it for 1st and 2nd rounders though I bet it is a lot higher.  It is skewed by late round picks and undrafted players based on talent.


It looks like Carman would have to play about 6.5 years to reach the NFL average for 2nd rounders.

(05-06-2021, 03:34 PM)OSUfan Wrote: The average is 2.5 years if you take it as a whole. If you go to just offensive linemen the average is 3.5 years.

That 2.5 years is adding in all the UDFA guys and the like. That's hardly a legitimate number. Jake Dolegala was a UDFA who the Bengals signed in 2019, they released him after. The Patriots had him on their PS 1 year later. He never made it onto another active roster and is now a FA. His career is counted as 1 year, so he will obviously drag down the number. There are plenty of guys like him but I don't think he's really what people are thinking of when they are thinking of how long an NFL career is.

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/round-and-longevity-another-look-nfl-career-length

So long as you get your name called on draft day, you average about 5.2 years. That's probably the better number to go with as that is looking at the people the NFL considered as NFL level talent.

(05-05-2021, 08:08 PM)Synric Wrote: I'm sure the team did their due diligence on Jackson Carman's back injury by following up with his surgeon and getting the complete information from his medical combine. They were comfortable enough to take him in the second round with all that information. 

None of us without that information can make an informed decision one way or another. All I do know is he is medically cleared to run football drills.

JACKSON CARMAN (Clemson)

Today. With 2 days until draft ... still working. The hay is never in the barn.

Perfect rhythm of feet and independent hands on the inside move. pic.twitter.com/p5Yx7zqVSH

— Paul Alexander (@CoachPaulAlex) April 27, 2021

It's the same staff that's evaluated all of the other guys who we signed, then put on it, or drafted like ced.

(05-06-2021, 02:22 PM)Synric Wrote: I understand you dont have any real information on this but in your opinion of a guy that finished his season, got the surgery, and was doing football drills 6 weeks later. We are also hearing the coaching staff and scout staff say he will be competing for an IOL spot this year. 

Would you say it was on the minor or major side?

With what we know (which isn’t very specific) it was significant enough for them to recommend surgery. Of those that are significant enough for surgery, I would guess this is minor based upon the little we do know. Regardless of how minor it may or may not be, at this point his long term outcome is still to be determined. And of those who have this surgery there is no way of predicting who will fully recover and who won’t. So only time will tell.

And what we’re witnessing now is a pissing contest between a guy with the anecdotal personal evidence of 1 patient who is overly pessimistic (AtomicBlaze) versus a guy who is quoting neck surgery statistics that don’t apply to this case because he doesn’t have the first clue and is overly optimistic (OSUfan).

(05-06-2021, 02:55 PM)OSUfan Wrote: He really is not worth you responding to.

Writes the arrogant guy condescending to others based upon neck surgery statistics that don’t even apply to Carman’s injury.

Still waiting on you to dazzle me with your brilliance on the statistics used to determine level of performance for an OG pre and post surgery. And for you to address the Terrace Marshall, Jr comments.

(05-06-2021, 03:32 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: The average is probably that low because of 4th-7th round picks, I wonder what the average is for 1st and 2nd  round picks. I doubt you would consider it a success if we only ever got 4 years out of our 1st and 2nd rounders.

I think the averages probably differ a little by round and position.

(05-06-2021, 04:36 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: With what we know (which isn’t very specific) it was significant enough for them to recommend surgery. Of those that are significant enough for surgery, I would guess this is minor based upon the little we do know. Regardless of how minor it may or may not be, at this point his long term outcome is still to be determined. And of those who have this surgery there is no way of predicting who will fully recover and who won’t. So only time will tell.

And what we’re witnessing now is a pissing contest between a guy with the anecdotal personal evidence of 1 patient who is overly pessimistic (AtomicBlaze) versus a guy who is quoting neck surgery statistics that don’t apply to this case because he doesn’t have the first clue and is overly optimistic (OSUfan).

 I think back surgery comes with a lot of risk, my step brother had a similar surgery and ended up paralyzed and later died from complications.  So I doubt a surgeon would recommend it if the injury wasn't serious.  Football fans rarely take back injuries seriously, and apparently neither do Bengals coaches, that is the only reason I am irritated.  I could totally see him being rushed into the lineup before he has had the full recovery.  Just look at JJ Watt and many other star players who rush back from back surgery only to mess up their back again.

(05-06-2021, 05:33 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote:  I think back surgery comes with a lot of risk, my step brother had a similar surgery and ended up paralyzed and later died from complications.  So I doubt a surgeon would recommend it if the injury wasn't serious.  Football fans rarely take back injuries seriously, and apparently neither do Bengals coaches, that is the only reason I am irritated.  I could totally see him being rushed into the lineup before he has had the full recovery.  Just look at JJ Watt and many other star players who rush back from back surgery only to mess up their back again.

I’m so sorry to learn about your brother and it certainly makes it understandable to feel the way you do.

(05-06-2021, 04:13 PM)Benton Wrote: It's the same staff that's evaluated all of the other guys who we signed, then put on it, or drafted like ced.

Only difference now, is that PA is consultant to NFL media, as well as hires himself out as a private coach.  So, essentially guys can pay for some sessions with him, and he'll pump them up for the draft.  Kind of like when the restaurants have their kitchen staff take the safety and sanitation course offered by the health department, in order to gain those extra 5 points on their sanitation rating.

(05-06-2021, 03:32 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: The average is probably that low because of 4th-7th round picks, I wonder what the average is for 1st and 2nd  round picks.  I doubt you would consider it a success if we only ever got 4 years out of our 1st and 2nd rounders.

I would think that the average applies to the whole of the nfl.  If anything those 4-7 rounders would be less likely to make a roster or not play significant snaps for a year or two.  I would think they would raise the average due to the fact they play less early on.  But again it's an average across the whole.
 
And if we only got 4 years out of our first and second rounders then we would be snake bit but way to cherry pick a subset of players.  You seem hell bent on bitching about the Carmen pick and all the doom and gloom that may happen.  

(05-06-2021, 12:46 AM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: He most likely will never be 100% again ever, back injuries are not like other injuries.

(05-06-2021, 10:34 AM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: The studies really are not very helpful in determining decreased performance that is why I would like examples.

Examples are individual data points. Looking at the complete data is surely far more helpful.

(05-06-2021, 11:22 AM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: Again what does that information tell us, he will most likely have a short career 33 games over 3 years, and only a 63% chance of becoming a starter?  And you don't think that is high risk? In the first study it says there is an 80% return to play rate, so there is a 20% chance the 2nd round draft pick won't even be able to play. Why take the risk?

80% chance from which point? If you're talking about players who have yet to have the surgery that is a bigger risk than if you are talking about players like Carman who are further along the process having already had surgery and been medically cleared to return.

(05-06-2021, 03:39 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: What is it for 1st and 2nd rounders though I bet it is a lot higher.  It is skewed by late round picks and undrafted players based on talent.


It looks like Carman would have to play about 6.5 years to reach the NFL average for 2nd rounders.

I can live with that and given the past history of Carman from a medical standpoint I do not doubt that he will play for better than 10 years and do it at an extremely high level.

Consider Anthony Munoz who had two major knee procedures at a time where a single procedure of its variety were often times career ending.

(05-06-2021, 05:33 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote:  I think back surgery comes with a lot of risk, my step brother had a similar surgery and ended up paralyzed and later died from complications.  So I doubt a surgeon would recommend it if the injury wasn't serious.  Football fans rarely take back injuries seriously, and apparently neither do Bengals coaches, that is the only reason I am irritated.  I could totally see him being rushed into the lineup before he has had the full recovery.  Just look at JJ Watt and many other star players who rush back from back surgery only to mess up their back again.

Sorry to hear about your brother, yet you are assuming that a physician stated it was necessary or the only route to take for recovery. More times than you probably know the choice is decided by the player not by actual necessity. Players may very well opt for surgical repair in an effort to speed up the timeframe to be fully recovered. Tua at Alabama is a great example. It is medical knowledge that high ankle sprains heal with time. Tightrope surgery is not required to recover from a high ankle sprain. A high ankle sprain generally heals in the timeframe of 6 to 8 weeks give or take the severity of the original injury.

However, that would have put Tua out of playing in key games for Bama.

(05-07-2021, 07:18 AM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Examples are individual data points. Looking at the complete data is surely far more helpful.


80% chance from which point? If you're talking about players who have yet to have the surgery that is a bigger risk than if you are talking about players like Carman who are further along the process having already had surgery and been medically cleared to return.

Here is the information from the study:

Of the 559 athletes included in this study, 79.4% returned to play after an orthopedic procedure (range, 50.0%-96.3%). Players who underwent surgical procedures for tendon injuries had significantly lower return to play rates (50%) than players who had bony injuries or sports hernia (90.2%-96.3%), Dr. Hsu said. Patellar tendon repair, in particular, had the greatest effect on NFL careers, with anterior cruciate ligament repair and Achilles tendon repair also having a strong impact on players’ careers. The return to play rate following lumbar discectomy was 73%.

(05-07-2021, 12:30 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: Here is the information from the study:

Of the 559 athletes included in this study, 79.4% returned to play after an orthopedic procedure (range, 50.0%-96.3%). Players who underwent surgical procedures for tendon injuries had significantly lower return to play rates (50%) than players who had bony injuries or sports hernia (90.2%-96.3%), Dr. Hsu said. Patellar tendon repair, in particular, had the greatest effect on NFL careers, with anterior cruciate ligament repair and Achilles tendon repair also having a strong impact on players’ careers. The return to play rate following lumbar discectomy was 73%.

I believe he had a lumbar discectomy so he has a 73% chance to return to play.  If he does return, I guess we will see what happens. From what I can tell there are very few studies that measure performance after this type of surgery. So I am not sure how the Bengals could feel good about his injury situation pre-draft, what information are they using to come to this conclusion?

(05-07-2021, 12:35 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: I believe he had a lumbar discectomy so he has a 73% chance to return to play.  If he does return, I guess we will see what happens.  From what I can tell there are very few studies that measure performance after this type of surgery.  So I am not sure how the Bengals could feel good about his injury situation pre-draft, what information are they using to come to this conclusion?

You can continue to try and make his injury out to be what it is not but it just won't make it so.

(05-07-2021, 08:29 PM)OSUfan Wrote: You can continue to try and make his injury out to be what it is not but it just won't make it so.

Stop.  Just the same, you can try to diminish a back injury all that you want, and it still does not mean it never happened.

(05-07-2021, 12:30 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: Here is the information from the study:

Of the 559 athletes included in this study, 79.4% returned to play after an orthopedic procedure (range, 50.0%-96.3%). Players who underwent surgical procedures for tendon injuries had significantly lower return to play rates (50%) than players who had bony injuries or sports hernia (90.2%-96.3%), Dr. Hsu said. Patellar tendon repair, in particular, had the greatest effect on NFL careers, with anterior cruciate ligament repair and Achilles tendon repair also having a strong impact on players’ careers. The return to play rate following lumbar discectomy was 73%.

That's 73% at the time they underwent the surgical procedure. But he's had the surgical procedure and he's been cleared at which point the odds will invariably be higher than 73%?

(05-07-2021, 08:29 PM)OSUfan Wrote: You can continue to try and make his injury out to be what it is not but it just won't make it so.

(05-07-2021, 08:51 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Stop.  Just the same, you can try to diminish a back injury all that you want, and it still does not mean it never happened.

Like any player with a medical concern, we have no way of knowing whether or not it will be an issue in the future. All we know for sure as of now is that he's been cleared, has been working out, is doing football drills...and by all accounts is looking / progressing really well. Carman's situation is unique to him...with how he's healed, how the disc holds up and how durable the back will be. We can compare it with other players, personal experience or whatever, but not of that can predict what Carman's result will be. We'll just have to wait and see.