(05-28-2021, 10:17 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Uzomah was hurt and it appears you ignore his 2020 stats, 

In 2020 Uzo was on pace for 64 receptions, 700 yds, and 8 tds

Ertz may rerun to his prior form or he might not.  Many TEs drop off dramatically at age 31 after a significant injury.  Your willingness to bet on him does not change reality.

(05-28-2021, 10:25 AM)fredtoast Wrote: In 2020 Uzo was on pace for 64 receptions, 700 yds, and 8 tds

Ertz may rerun to his prior form or he might not.  Many TEs drop off dramatically at age 31 after a significant injury.  Your willingness to bet on him does not change reality.

Reality is we will have facts one year from now, either I am right or wrong. I think I am right. What significant injury did Ertz have in 2020? How about Uzomah injury history his early career?


57
36
469
13.0
4
25
38
2.3
29.3
63.2%
8.2








36
13.0
469
4
0
4
2014
24
PHI
te
86
16
5
89
58
702
12.1
3
42
35
3.6
43.9
65.2%
7.9








58
12.1
702
3
1
5
2015
25
PHI
te
86
15
7
112
75
853
11.4
2
40
60
5.0
56.9
67.0%
7.6








75
11.4
853
2
1
6
2016
26
PHI
TE
86
14
12
106
78
816
10.5
4
42
30
5.6
58.3
73.6%
7.7








78
10.5
816
4
0
7
2017*
27
PHI
TE
86
14
13
110
74
824
11.1
8
46
53
5.3
58.9
67.3%
7.5








74
11.1
824
8
1
8
2018*
28
PHI
TE
86
16
16
156
116
1163
10.0
8
72
34
7.3
72.7
74.4%
7.5








116
10.0
1163
8
1
9
2019*
29
PHI
TE
86
15
15
135
88
916
10.4
6
50
30
5.9
61.1
65.2%
6.8








88
10.4
916
6
1
7
2020
30
PHI
TE
86
11
11
72
36
335
9.3
1
16
42
3.3
30.5
50.0%
4.7








36
9.3
335
1
0
2Career



117
82
837
561
6078
10.8
36
333
60
4

Here is CJ's numbers tp compare to Ertz:

2015 22 CIN 87 5 0 1 1 4 4.0 0 1 4 0.2 0.8 100.0% 4.0 1 4.0 4 0 0 0
2016 23 CIN te 87 10 8 38 25 234 9.4 1 14 54 2.5 23.4 65.8% 6.2 25 9.4 234 1 0 2
2017 24 CIN te 87 14 4 15 10 92 9.2 1 7 21 0.7 6.6 66.7% 6.1 10 9.2 92 1 0 1
2018 25 CIN TE 87 16 15 64 43 439 10.2 3 21 29 2.7 27.4 67.2% 6.9 43 10.2 439 3 0 4
2019 26 CIN TE 87 16 16 40 27 242 9.0 2 12 36 1.7 15.1 67.5% 6.1 27 9.0 242 2 0 2
2020 27 CIN 87 2 2 11 8 87 10.9 1 6 23 4.0 43.5 72.7% 7.9 8 10.9 87 1 0 1
Career 63 45 169 114 1098 9.6 8 61 54 1.8 17.4 67.5% 6.5 114 9.6 1098 8 0 10

(05-28-2021, 10:25 AM)fredtoast Wrote: In 2020 Uzo was on pace for 64 receptions, 700 yds, and 8 tds

I get what you are trying to say but I'm not sure only 2 games in 2020 is really a good way to speculate what he was on pace for.  6-8 games  or more maybe.  I think Uzomah is a decent TE and I hope he has a great year in 2021.  But I don't think 2 games is a decent enough sample size to really say what he might have done had he not been injured.  His stats from the previous years don't seem to support the level of productivity as your on pace projection.  Of course he could be getting better.  If so that would be great.

That said I'm not sold on Ertz being the TE the Bengals need either. Maybe if the price was right.

(05-28-2021, 10:55 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote:  What significant injury did have Ertz have in 2020? 

I just assumed that since he missed 5 games and when he did manage to play he posted the worst catch percentage and yards-per-target among all starting TEs in the league that he had a significant injury.

How do you explain his missed games and shitty production?

(05-28-2021, 03:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I just assumed that since he missed 5 games and when he did manage to play he posted the worst catch percentage and yards-per-target among all starting TEs in the league that he had a significant injury.

How do you explain his missed games and shitty production?

He missed games due to injury, so did Uzomah. Ertz missed 8 games in his entire career. Uzomah missed 14 in one year. Who exactly are you saying had the worse injury?

Uzomah by stats had a worse year the than Ertz, but makes 6.2 million and Ertz right now closer to 8 million. In 2020 Eagles WR and OL was decimated by injury.

I just don't get your argument Fred, not 1 year has Uzomah had close to better stats than Ertz's average over hos career.
BTW, I want to keep Sample, CJ and add Ertz.

(05-28-2021, 03:18 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I just don't get your argument Fred, 

I don't want to spend money on a 31 year old TE coming off a season where he was injured and sucked really bad.

The odds are against it being a good move.

(05-28-2021, 05:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't want to spend money on a 31 year old TE coming off a season where he was injured and sucked really bad.

The odds are against it being a good move.

He is actually 30 years old until Nov. 10th (2/3rd into season, not 31.

Like I said, we can compare notes in about 8 or 9 months to see if your odds were correct or my instincts were correct.

(05-28-2021, 10:17 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Uzomah was hurt and it appears you ignore his 2020 stats, Ertz has one bad year (Uzomah has never had a great year and never known to be able to block well, yet you see no upgrade. A healthy 30 year old Ertz is better than a younger Uzomah, in experience and talent/

I respect your opinion, bit strongly disagree and will wager  whomever Ertz plays for in 2021. he will put up better PFF rankings in both run and pass plays against any of our TE's.

While I agree that we disagree completely, I won't accept a PFF wager where the Bengal in question has to have a higher number on both measures than Ertz, who won't have near the WRs drawing targets around him.  

Uzomah was having a very nice start to last season before injury, and he has shown to be a capable blocker.  Not as good as Sample, but Sample also doesn't have Uzomah's long speed.  

I just don't see Ertz, at 30, being an upgrade.  You said he had one bad year?  So did AJ Green.  

(05-28-2021, 10:25 AM)fredtoast Wrote: In 2020 Uzo was on pace for 64 receptions, 700 yds, and 8 tds

He played in only 2 games.  Don't you can really throw out what he was on pace for with such a small sample size.

(05-28-2021, 03:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I just assumed that since he missed 5 games and when he did manage to play he posted the worst catch percentage and yards-per-target among all starting TEs in the league that he had a significant injury.

How do you explain his missed games and shitty production?

It's pretty easily explainable.

Alshon Jeffrey, Desean Jackson, and Jaelon Reagor all missed significant time.  Dallas Goedert missed time as well.

In fact, they suffered so many injuries to receiving weapons that Travis Fulgham was their #1 receiver.  He's a guy who had never been on an NFL roster and who the Eagles picked up right before the season started.

So when you have no real weapons surrounding you it's going cause some serious problems.  It's going to result in more attention in coverage, it's going to cause the defense to be able to cover the WR's one one one and double elsewhere or blitz more, it's going to cause the QB to struggle mightily, which is exactly what we saw.

Throw in a high ankle sprain right in the middle of year and couple it with all of the above and you've got your answer.

(05-29-2021, 01:39 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: It's pretty easily explainable.

Alshon Jeffrey, Desean Jackson, and Jaelon Reagor all missed significant time.  Dallas Goedert missed time as well.

In fact, they suffered so many injuries to receiving weapons that Travis Fulgham was their #1 receiver.  He's a guy who had never been on an NFL roster and who the Eagles picked up right before the season started.

So when you have no real weapons surrounding you it's going cause some serious problems.  It's going to result in more attention in coverage, it's going to cause the defense to be able to cover the WR's one one one and double elsewhere or blitz more, it's going to cause the QB to struggle mightily, which is exactly what we saw.

Throw in a high ankle sprain right in the middle of year and couple it with all of the above and you've got your answer.

So you're saying injuries can cripple an offense or defense...interesting here I thought it was bad coaching and scheme?

Right now with the cap where it is and so many players on one year deals league wide, not just the Bengals, I can see a good justification for hanging on to as much cap dollars as possible in anticipation for next season when there's going to be a lot of available free agents to pick from.  If this team is close to top of the league with cap availability that could bode really well for next year if they want to revamp a lot of the roster..There will be teams that can't afford to do much at all. I would prefer the Bengals to not be one of those teams. 

I'd rather the Bengals go ahead and re-sign Bates and Hubbard than to hold onto that money for next year and potentially have to pay even more. Ertz isn't a real need and isn't a big enough upgrade if we keep Uzomah. Locking up $14-15m in those 2 tight ends just doesn't sound like a smart move to me. While a TE is a big help, why don't we try to use our exceptionally overdrafted TE more in the passing game? How about we do even more to actually improve the OL so that the TE isn't necessary for blocking every time our QB drops back.

I also don't see a need for Ertz if we truly have the best WR trio in the league like so many keep saying. The 3 of them need fed. Mixon should hopefully be used more in the passing game as well. Trading a pick or whatever for an $8m a year TE when we already have 4 guys ahead of him who should get more looks doesn't sound like the best plan. Also, isn't our QB supposed to be a guy that elevates everyone's play around him because he is supposed to be elite or on his way to elite? I like Burrow a lot and I am very happy he's a Bengal. I'm not trying to knock him at all with that statement. Simply saying that he has 4 very good weapons already plus it's not like Uzomah is garbage when healthy. We also brought in his college TE who is an unknown but it keeps being repeated that his chemistry with players should help him and them.

I'm not saying Ertz isn't better than Uzomah or knocking Ertz for age, injuries, or production. If the team wanted to make a trade another quality OL or LB would be a much greater benefit than Ertz.

(05-30-2021, 11:44 AM)muskiesfan Wrote: I'd rather the Bengals go ahead and re-sign Bates and Hubbard than to hold onto that money for next year and potentially have to pay even more. Ertz isn't a real need and isn't a big enough upgrade if we keep Uzomah. Locking up $14-15m in those 2 tight ends just doesn't sound like a smart move to me. While a TE is a big help, why don't we try to use our exceptionally overdrafted TE more in the passing game? How about we do even more to actually improve the OL so that the TE isn't necessary for blocking every time our QB drops back.

I also don't see a need for Ertz if we truly have the best WR trio in the league like so many keep saying. The 3 of them need fed. Mixon should hopefully be used more in the passing game as well. Trading a pick or whatever for an $8m a year TE when we already have 4 guys ahead of him who should get more looks doesn't sound like the best plan. Also, isn't our QB supposed to be a guy that elevates everyone's play around him because he is supposed to be elite or on his way to elite? I like Burrow a lot and I am very happy he's a Bengal. I'm not trying to knock him at all with that statement. Simply saying that he has 4 very good weapons already plus it's not like Uzomah is garbage when healthy. We also brought in his college TE who is an unknown but it keeps being repeated that his chemistry with players should help him and them.

I'm not saying Ertz isn't better than Uzomah or knocking Ertz for age, injuries, or production. If the team wanted to make a trade another quality OL or LB would be a much greater benefit than Ertz.

I don't think trading for Ertz prevents you from giving new deals to Bates and/or Hubbard though.  We currently sit at almost 24 million in available space.

You have to remember, if Bates or Hubbard were to get extended they'd still have their base salaries set for this season.  Now, the Bengals most liklely would front load some of the signing bonus onto this year's cap but I don't think it would be a ridiculous amount.  With Mixon they only frontloaded around 2.5 million on the final year of the rookie deal.  Hell, even if they decided to front load a shit ton, say 15 million total between them, we'd still be sitting on enough money to pay for him.

I also think the move would be to cut Uzomah if they somehow actually wanted Ertz.  That would free up 5.2 million dollars.  With Ertz only costing 8.5 million, you'd be looking at a difference of 3.3 million.

If people don't think Ertz is that much better than Uzomah or they think he's washed up, or your case us just not needed another weapon that much, I can kind of get that.  But I don't understand those (not necessarily you) that use money as the primary reason as to why we shouldn't pursue him.  We have plenty of money to do so, and we haven't even gotten to training camp cuts that could free up more (Ex: Someone like XSF could save the Bengals 2.5 million)

(05-30-2021, 11:56 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I don't think trading for Ertz prevents you from giving new deals to Bates and/or Hubbard though.  We currently sit at almost 24 million in available space.

You have to remember, if Bates or Hubbard were to get extended they'd still have their base salaries set for this season.  Now, the Bengals most liklely would front load some of the signing bonus onto this year's cap but I don't think it would be a ridiculous amount.  With Mixon they only frontloaded around 2.5 million on the final year of the rookie deal.  Hell, even if they decided to front load a shit ton, say 15 million total between them, we'd still be sitting on enough money to pay for him.

I also think the move would be to cut Uzomah if they somehow actually wanted Ertz.  That would free up 5.2 million dollars.  With Ertz only costing 8.5 million, you'd be looking at a difference of 3.3 million.

If people don't think Ertz is that much better than Uzomah or they think he's washed up, I can kind of get that.  But I don't understand those that use money as the primary reason as to why we shouldn't pursue him.  We have plenty of money to do so, and we haven't even gotten to training camp cuts that could free up more (Ex: Someone like XSF could save the Bengals 2.5 million)

All of this is well and good. I was just trying to respond to multiple things I saw stated in the thread.

We certainly have enough to do a lot more. We always roll over cap and I'm just hoping that we don't just roll all of it over. We can definitely still add players and go ahead and reup Bates and Hubbard. I'm not saying these are the only options available, just saying that I'd rather re-sign those 2 than to bring in Ertz. Also that we have added more weapons already and I think it would be more beneficial for the team to bring in additional OL or LB help than to bring in Ertz.

I would think they would cut Uzomah as well, but others have suggested keeping both. If that were the plan, I'd rather just keep Uzomah and look for potential upgrades elsewhere.

I wouldn't be upset if they brought in Ertz. I don't think he's a bad player and I do believe he would be the best TE on the roster. It's just my opinion that if we add more to the offense that it needs to be OL and not a TE.