QBs through week 6 (excluding MNF)

When you have an elite QB like Kirk Cousins, you can never be counted out of a game pic.twitter.com/NYvhF8fIwz

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 18, 2021

I know he’s being sarcastic about Cousins, but that Vikes win is looking pretty good right now.

Cousins has been a stud his whole career. Never got the hate for him

(10-18-2021, 03:50 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Cousins has been a stud his whole career. Never got the hate for him

Not saying Andy is as good as Cousins, but they suffer from the same issues. People don’t necessarily like their personalities and both have a habit of folding in big games.

(10-18-2021, 03:47 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:

QBs through week 6 (excluding MNF)

When you have an elite QB like Kirk Cousins, you can never be counted out of a game pic.twitter.com/NYvhF8fIwz

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 18, 2021

I know he’s being sarcastic about Cousins, but that Vikes win is looking pretty good right now.

I'd like to know how they made this chart and off what metric? Stafford is below the trendline?!?!?! That just makes zero sense. Dude has 16 TDs compared to 4 INTs??

They likely have Stafford "credited" for certain errant throws or poor decisions that didn't show up statistically, e.g. throws that should have been intercepted but weren't.

(10-18-2021, 04:52 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I'd like to know how they made this chart and off what metric? Stafford is below the trendline?!?!?! That just makes zero sense. Dude has 16 TDs compared to 4 INTs??

It is EPA (expected points added), completion percentage over expected and PFF grade. Basically, what the chart is saying is that Stafford has a really high EPA and CPOE (balling out) but PFF doesn't have him graded super highly (77.4). 

Ben Baldwin, the guy who tweeted this, is a really smart guy. For analytical work, he is top notch. 

(10-18-2021, 06:27 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It is EPA (expected points added), completion percentage over expected and PFF grade. Basically, what the chart is saying is that Stafford has a really high EPA and CPOE (balling out) but PFF doesn't have him graded super highly (77.4). 

Ben Baldwin, the guy who tweeted this, is a really smart guy. For analytical work, he is top notch. 

None of this tells me anything.

What is EPA based on?  How is it calculated?

What is CPOE based on?  How is it calculated?

I realize that the most simplistic statistics often don't tell the complete story,  For example a high completion percentage does not mean much if the QB never throws the ball more than 5 yards.  But in order to appreciate these new metrics I have to have some idea of where they come from.

(10-19-2021, 12:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: None of this tells me anything.

What is EPA based on?  How is it calculated?

What is CPOE based on?  How is it calculated?

I realize that the most simplistic statistics often don't tell the complete story,  For example a high completion percentage does not mean much if the QB never throws the ball more than 5 yards.  But in order to appreciate these new metrics I have to have some idea of where they come from.

Say the Chiefs start with the ball first-and-10 from their own 25-yard line, where its expected points would be about 1.06. If Patrick Mahomes throws a 15-yard completion, making it first-and-10 on the KC 40-yard line, where the expected points is now 1.88, the EPA of that play would be 1.88 – 1.06 or 0.82. In other words, that completion increased the Chiefs’ expected points on that drive by just over three-fourths of a point. If instead of the completion, Mahomes was sacked for a 10-yard loss, making it second-and-20 from their own 15, the new expected points would be about -0.54 and the EPA for that play would be -0.54 – 1.06 or -1.6. This means the sack decreased the amount of points the Chiefs were expected to score on that drive by 1.6 points.



For CPOE, it is a little more simple though I don't know all of the formula. It is taking into account field type (dome or non-dome), depth of target, yards per attempt, sacks/hits and a few other things I believe. Once these are inserted into a formula, you have a predictive formula that will tell you what that QBs completion % is expected to be. Then you take the QBs real comp % and subtract it by the expected comp % which then gives you CPOE, or Completion Percentage Over Expected.