(11-09-2021, 04:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yep.

We lose 34-23

I actually believe that you believe that.

(11-09-2021, 04:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We did not lose momentum.  We went 75 yards on 9 plays to tie the score on th very next drive.  At that point it was a new game at 7-7.

So how does that one play account for us getting outscored 34-9 after that?

You really don't understand momentum or the mental aspect of the game.

If we score there, maybe we come out even more fired up on defense the next drive, stop them, and then come down again and score.

It also impacts the mental state of the defense.

(11-09-2021, 05:07 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Doesnt account for the rest of the point difference....   and that play didnt have much barring on the rest of the game after the next drive. (as fred states)

Once again, you both think it goes the exact same way?

The game may well and probably does go differently without the pick six. To just change the final score given that variable does not make sense.

Saying it "lost us the game" also doesn't make sense and requires further presumption. Burrow screwed the pooch. There's not much else to be said.

(11-09-2021, 05:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I actually believe that you believe that.


You really don't understand momentum or the mental aspect of the game.

If we score there, maybe we come out even more fired up on defense the next drive, stop them, and then come down again and score.

It also impacts the mental state of the defense.

I tend to think that momentum is overstated in most cases. I've argued that it doesn't exist, but I'd like to modify that argument - momentum DOES exist, it is a synonym for morale or confidence. Players absolutely do improve their morale and confidence based on their play (or lose said morale and confidence). I DON'T think that 'momentum' has as big of an impact as many people think it does. Part of my belief comes from my personal playing days, the rest from conversations with coaches and other statheads along with a study that looked into this and didn't find much team improvement after 'momentum defining plays'. 

Maybe they do come out fired up and go up 14 points. Or, maybe they don't and the game has endless paths to go down, still. I genuinely don't believe that the interception cost us the game. Cincinnati marched right back down and scored to tie it up, but Cleveland mauled them afterwards. 

(11-09-2021, 05:38 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I tend to think that momentum is overstated in most cases. I've argued that it doesn't exist, but I'd like to modify that argument - momentum DOES exist, it is a synonym for morale or confidence. Players absolutely do improve their morale and confidence based on their play (or lose said morale and confidence). I DON'T think that 'momentum' has as big of an impact as many people think it does. Part of my belief comes from my personal playing days, the rest from conversations with coaches and other statheads along with a study that looked into this and didn't find much team improvement after 'momentum defining plays'. 

Maybe they do come out fired up and go up 14 points. Or, maybe they don't and the game has endless paths to go down, still. I genuinely don't believe that the interception cost us the game. Cincinnati marched right back down and scored to tie it up, but Cleveland mauled them afterwards. 

Cleveland mauled them after and, while we did score on the next drive, there's so much to be said for scoring on the opening drive and the confidence it gives to your offense AND defense.

They also scored on their next three drives and went into halftime up by 14.

(11-09-2021, 12:33 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: 1OA  = higher expectations....      Will Burrow get better.  Depends on how well he takes coaching and criticism to his game.  hes got the tools...   We need better Coaches for Him and a Vet clipboard holder.

Name the last 1OA QB that came into the league and played like a top 5 QB from the jump.

I'll wait right here. 

(11-09-2021, 05:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I actually believe that you believe that.


You really don't understand momentum or the mental aspect of the game.

If we score there, maybe we come out even more fired up on defense the next drive, stop them, and then come down again and score.

It also impacts the mental state of the defense.

Solid reasoning.

Or maybe the game plays out like it actually did. Bengals tie it up and then get blown out the rest of the way. 

(11-09-2021, 05:38 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I tend to think that momentum is overstated in most cases. I've argued that it doesn't exist, but I'd like to modify that argument - momentum DOES exist, it is a synonym for morale or confidence. Players absolutely do improve their morale and confidence based on their play (or lose said morale and confidence). I DON'T think that 'momentum' has as big of an impact as many people think it does. Part of my belief comes from my personal playing days, the rest from conversations with coaches and other statheads along with a study that looked into this and didn't find much team improvement after 'momentum defining plays'. 

Maybe they do come out fired up and go up 14 points. Or, maybe they don't and the game has endless paths to go down, still. I genuinely don't believe that the interception cost us the game. Cincinnati marched right back down and scored to tie it up, but Cleveland mauled them afterwards. 

Momentum doesn't exist, except like you said "morale or confidence" and it only lasts until the very next play. 

Anything that exists on a play by play basis shouldn't be used as a metric for something that lasts 60+ plays. 

(11-09-2021, 05:17 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: I actually believe that you believe that.


You really don't understand momentum or the mental aspect of the game.

If we score there, maybe we come out even more fired up on defense the next drive, stop them, and then come down again and score.

It also impacts the mental state of the defense.

I'll address the bolded parts.

"maybe" - is one hell of a coaching concept.

"stop them" - We barely stopped them all day.

"mental state of the defense" - 

(11-09-2021, 07:04 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Solid reasoning.

Or maybe the game plays out like it actually did. Bengals tie it up and then get blown out the rest of the way. 

(11-09-2021, 07:16 PM)Tiger Teeth Wrote: I'll address the bolded parts.

"maybe" - is one hell of a coaching concept.

"stop them" - We barely stopped them all day.

"mental state of the defense" - 

We're talking about what would have happened if we hadn't called the route on that interception, so thinking about anything that we think would have happened is obviously an uncertainty.

(11-09-2021, 09:01 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: We're talking about what would have happened if we hadn't called the route on that interception, so thinking about anything that we think would have happened is obviously an uncertainty.

Yep. And that's why you can't say they would have won the game. 

I'm certain, to some point, the game would have been different if the Bengals score first. I just don't know that they would have won or even made it any closer than it was because they looked uncomfortable and tentative all game. 

I'd look more at the 3 or 4 dropped passes as something that could have really swung the game for them.

(11-09-2021, 09:10 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yep. And that's why you can't say they would have won the game. 

I'm certain, to some point, the game would have been different if the Bengals score first. I just don't know that they would have won or even made it any closer than it was because they looked uncomfortable and tentative all game. 

I'd look more at the 3 or 4 dropped passes as something that could have really swung the game for them.

You understood that?  

(11-09-2021, 06:55 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Name the last 1OA QB that came into the league and played like a top 5 QB from the jump.

I'll wait right here. 

RG3

(11-09-2021, 09:28 PM)bfine32 Wrote: RG3

2OA

Also that lasted ten minutes

(11-09-2021, 09:28 PM)bfine32 Wrote: RG3

He went 2nd.

(11-09-2021, 09:28 PM)bfine32 Wrote: RG3

Rookie year only. What did he do his 2nd year?

(11-09-2021, 09:40 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: 2OA

Also that lasted ten minutes

(11-09-2021, 09:47 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: He went 2nd.

Yeah, I misread the Top 5; thought he was referring to the draft pick. I guess you have to go back to Cam Newton with his over 4700 yards from scrimmage and 35 TDs  

(11-09-2021, 10:00 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Yeah, I misread the Top 5; thought he was referring to the draft pick. I guess you have to go back to Cam Newton with his over 4700 yards from scrimmage and 35 TDs  

No on Cam. No on Luck. 

No one ever has. 

(11-09-2021, 09:10 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Yep. And that's why you can't say they would have won the game. 

I'm certain, to some point, the game would have been different if the Bengals score first. I just don't know that they would have won or even made it any closer than it was because they looked uncomfortable and tentative all game. 

I'd look more at the 3 or 4 dropped passes as something that could have really swung the game for them.

Maybe an opening drive score and going up 7 instead of down 7 makes them comfortable and gives them more confidence to be more aggressive and not play tentative.

Nothing's for sure but it seems like a likely possibility.

(11-09-2021, 10:03 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: No on Cam. No on Luck. 

No one ever has. 

I'll take your word for it, but 4700 yards and 35 TDs is pretty good.