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One thing that sticks out to me is that DJ Reader is criminally underrated on this board.
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Also, we have 4 players currently in the top 10 at their positions. With Spain and Bell just outside at 11 and 12.
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How can you be the 40th rated center? That’s like worse than all the backups that have played, right? That’s a special talent.
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(11-12-2021, 01:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:
One thing that sticks out to me is that DJ Reader is criminally underrated on this board.
Absolutely true about Reader. And Tupou. And BJ Hill.
One thing I want to point out that I had forgotten (or maybe never knew) as it was mentioned by Paul Dehner, Jr. on "Hear that Podcast Growlin": Jesse Bates, for whatever reason, always tends to be a slow starter (statistically) and is always better the second half of the season.
I sure hope that is true, as we need the best version of him out there down the stretch.
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I don't pay much attention to PFF. Question, if I were to look at the Super Bowl champion from year-to-year, would their PFF grades stand out as high ratings making it obvious that a high PFF grade equates to winning football?
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(11-12-2021, 10:26 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I don't pay much attention to PFF. Question, if I were to look at the Super Bowl champion from year-to-year, would their PFF grades stand out as high ratings making it obvious that a high PFF grade equates to winning football?
This would be an interesting experiment. I may run this through a spreadsheet to see if there is a correlation between high grades and victories. My immediate guess is no, but I’m not a huge fan of PFF. I’ll respond back in a bit.
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(11-12-2021, 01:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:
One thing that sticks out to me is that DJ Reader is criminally underrated on this board.
Thanks for taking the time to post these, Nicomo.
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(11-12-2021, 10:26 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I don't pay much attention to PFF. Question, if I were to look at the Super Bowl champion from year-to-year, would their PFF grades stand out as high ratings making it obvious that a high PFF grade equates to winning football?
The answer to this question is yes, high PFF team ratings do equate to winning football. It has a correlation coefficient of 0.75, so a pretty strong relationship to team wins. Here is the chart to visualize the distribution.
![[Image: TJ9clH3.png]](https://i.imgur.com/TJ9clH3.png)
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(11-12-2021, 08:44 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Absolutely true about Reader. And Tupou. And BJ Hill.
One thing I want to point out that I had forgotten (or maybe never knew) as it was mentioned by Paul Dehner, Jr. on "Hear that Podcast Growlin": Jesse Bates, for whatever reason, always tends to be a slow starter (statistically) and is always better the second half of the season.
I sure hope that is true, as we need the best version of him out there down the stretch.
I don't know how true it is that Bates is a slow starter.
Last season threw the first 8 games he had 10 PD + 2 INTs but in the last 5 games he had 5 PD and 1 INT.
Rookie Season first 8 games 4 PD and 3 INTs compared to 3 PD in the last 8 games
Sophomore season 2 PD in the first 8 games compared 7 PD and 3 INTs.
Other than 2019 he hasn't really had a bad start to a season (outside of this year) . I think the reasons for his struggles have to do with playing him in the Box more and teams are avoiding throwing to him.
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(11-12-2021, 11:21 AM)J24 Wrote: I don't know how true it is that Bates is a slow starter.
Last season threw the first 8 games he had 10 PD + 2 INTs but in the last 5 games he had 5 PD and 1 INT.
Rookie Season first 8 games 4 PD and 3 INTs compared to 3 PD in the last 8 games
Sophomore season 2 PD in the first 8 games compared 7 PD and 3 INTs.
Other than 2019 he hasn't really had a bad start to a season (outside of this year) . I think the reasons for his struggles have to do with playing him in the Box more and teams are avoiding throwing to him.
He being targeted about the same amount as he was last year(2.22 targets/game vs 2.19).
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LBs have fallen off a cliff after the past two weeks. Wilson especially was much higher ranked 3+ weeks ago.
Zac Taylor 2019-2020: 6 total wins
Zac Taylor 2021-2022: Double-digit wins each season, plus 5 postseason wins
Zac Taylor 2023: 9 wins despite losing Burrow half the season
Zac Taylor 2024: Started 1-4. If he can turn this into a playoff appearance, it will be impressive.
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(11-12-2021, 10:48 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The answer to this question is yes, high PFF team ratings do equate to winning football. It has a correlation coefficient of 0.75, so a pretty strong relationship to team wins. Here is the chart to visualize the distribution.
Nice, thank you for sharing. I might have to check out PFF more often.
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Wilsons struggles as of late have been
Barely mentioned. He is getting worked over
Big time when teams target him in the
Passing game.
He looks more like Nick Vigil.
Bengals need a huge 2nd half from
Wilson.
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(11-12-2021, 11:41 AM)Whatever Wrote: He being targeted about the same amount as he was last year(2.22 targets/game vs 2.19).
Interesting that's not what my eyes are seeing though.
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(11-12-2021, 12:26 PM)J24 Wrote: Interesting that's not what my eyes are seeing though.
He's allowing a passer rating when targeted of 108.8 this year vs 42.3 last year. Why would teams go after him less this year?
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(11-12-2021, 01:32 PM)Whatever Wrote: He's allowing a passer rating when targeted of 108.8 this year vs 42.3 last year. Why would teams go after him less this year?
42.3 rating explains that don't you think?
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(11-12-2021, 02:01 PM)J24 Wrote: 42.3 rating explains that don't you think?
Not from a this year standpoint. I'm sure numbers will vary according to source, but PFR has him at 24 attempts (2.66 per game) and allowing 19 completions (79.2%) for 295 yards, zero touchdowns, 100.5 passer rating.
For reference, PFR had him down last year as 46 attempts (2.875 per game) and allowing 25 completions (54.3%) for 317 yards, three touchdowns, 70.7 passer rating.
It is interesting to such a big dip on essentially the same volume. He is on pace to be targeted 45 times this year, one less than last year, but also on pace to allow over 200 more yards than last year (553 total). Been a rough year, by the standards we set for him.
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(11-12-2021, 02:18 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Not from a this year standpoint. I'm sure numbers will vary according to source, but PFR has him at 24 attempts (2.66 per game) and allowing 19 completions (79.2%) for 295 yards, zero touchdowns, 100.5 passer rating.
For reference, PFR had him down last year as 46 attempts (2.875 per game) and allowing 25 completions (54.3%) for 317 yards, three touchdowns, 70.7 passer rating.
It is interesting to such a big dip on essentially the same volume. He is on pace to be targeted 45 times this year, one less than last year, but also on pace to allow over 200 more yards than last year (553 total). Been a rough year, by the standards we set for him.
It's odd to say the least; I have watched every game this season and have not noticed him being targeted as much but the statistics say other wise.
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(11-12-2021, 01:13 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote:
One thing that sticks out to me is that DJ Reader is criminally underrated on this board.
Reader, Bell, Hendrickson, Hubbard, Wilson, have all been damn good this year.
Kind of surprised Chase isn't top 5 as last I heard he was leading the league in some categories at this point as a rookie.
Burrow just needs to stop throwing the INT's. Seems like I say this every week but it is true.
Still liking this team and Spain I want re-signed after his season he has had. Been great.
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I do get a chuckle out of PFF thinking Hendrickson with his 8.5 sacks in 9 games plus a lot of pressures and also competency against the run is only 59th as a DE - this is the kind of thing that makes one distrust PFF.
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