2022 might be a good year to target a Running Back higher in the draft than expected (2nd, 3rd). I'm partial to WVU RB Leddie Brown but Breece Hall and Tyler Goodson are great prospects. CJ Verdell while injured the last two seasons will be a very talented back that goes later because of injury.

(11-29-2021, 06:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: How exactly do we know he won't get injured before the playoffs this season if we over use him.

lol right? This thread is trash. 

(11-29-2021, 06:57 PM)Au165 Wrote: He could, point being is this is probably the healthiest he will be on this contract and we should use him as much as we can this season.

How is this logical at all? The injuries to the other running backs you posted are mutually exclusive. They have absolutely no barring on Mixon's health. 

I'm sure there are PLENTY of guys in history that you could find that have been healthy on their second contract. There are also plenty of guys that get injured on their first contract. It means nothing. Mixon could go on to have a career like Frank Gore and play until he's 50 and never have career altering injury. Or next game he could...well you know, I wont say it.

RBs SHOULD be paid big bucks because they take a beating, have a very short career and are the bread & butter of the offense.

(11-30-2021, 10:17 AM)Synric Wrote: 2022 might be a good year to target a Running Back higher in the draft than expected (2nd, 3rd). I'm partial to WVU RB Leddie Brown but Breece Hall and Tyler Goodson are great prospects. CJ Verdell while injured the last two seasons will be a very talented back that goes later because of injury.

I'm partial to CJ Verdell, he could be a good value in the later rounds. Breece Hall is another good choice. 

(11-29-2021, 06:48 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Here is what Mixon got paid on his deal

'20.....$14.4 million
'21.....$ 5.4 million
'22.....$ 8.7 million
'23.....$10.1million
'24.....$10.4 million


So how does that average $12 million a year?

(11-29-2021, 06:56 PM)Au165 Wrote: The contract that was filed was a 4 year $48 million dollar extension. It is $33 Million in base salary over the 4 years along with $13 million in prorated signing bonus and an additional $2 million in roster bonuses and $800k in workout bonuses giving him an AAV of 12 million. 

I believe in 2020 he was still in his rookie deal. That $14.4M was his rookie contract salary plus the signing bonus ($10M) from the new contract, which is spread over 2020 to 2024.

Salaries are as follows
2021 $5M + $2M signing bonus + other stuff
2022 $8M + $2M signing bonus + other stuff
2023 $9.4M +$2M signing bonus +other stuff
2024 [Club option] $9.63M + $2M signing bonus + other stuff

$10M signing bonus + $5M + $8M + $9.4M + 9.63M = $42M and there are roster bonuses and other crap to add to that figure.

 

(11-30-2021, 01:41 PM)BengalChris Wrote: I believe in 2020 he was still in his rookie deal. That $14.4M was his rookie contract salary plus the signing bonus ($10M) from the new contract, which is spread over 2020 to 2024.

Salaries are as follows
2021 $5M + $2M signing bonus + other stuff
2022 $8M + $2M signing bonus + other stuff
2023 $9.4M +$2M signing bonus +other stuff
2024 [Club option] $9.63M + $2M signing bonus + other stuff

$10M signing bonus + $5M + $8M + $9.4M + 9.63M = $42M and there are roster bonuses and other crap to add to that figure.

 

Right.  This is the way it worked.

My question is if Mixon had played out the final year of his rookie contract would the Bengals have offered 4 yr $48 million as a new contract or 5 yr $48 million which is what they actually paid?

An extension to a player already on the team benefits the player because he gets more money in his pocket a year early.  It benefits the team because they can spread out the contract over an extra year.  So the negotiations for a contract extension are different from the negotiations with a player who has already become a free agent.

(11-30-2021, 02:50 AM)fredtoast Wrote: How can you say there are "plenty" when there are a lot fewer (24) than one per team.

Plus the difference between 5 yards per carry and 4 yards per carry is 25%.  That seems to be a pretty large difference.

Because I added a qualifier that they had to have at least 10 carries per game played, by moving it to 9 I can get you almost to 30 and if 4 goes to 3.8 we are now at mid to upset 30’s. While the difference between 5 and 4 is large, anything running at a clip of 3 touches = a first down has always been considered solid. Now this doesn’t take into account any guys receiving ability, which if we add that we are in a pretty large group to choose from.

Most guys simply suffer from lack of touches, there are elite guys like Chubb and Taylor but Mixon isn’t all that different then a large portion of guys many of which were found on day two of the draft or later which is why I always come back to the fact paying backs is not smart. Analytics tell us lines matter, defenders in the box matter, backs for the most part don’t matter much.

(11-30-2021, 10:22 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: How is this logical at all? The injuries to the other running backs you posted are mutually exclusive. They have absolutely no barring on Mixon's health. 

I'm sure there are PLENTY of guys in history that you could find that have been healthy on their second contract. There are also plenty of guys that get injured on their first contract. It means nothing. Mixon could go on to have a career like Frank Gore and play until he's 50 and never have career altering injury. Or next game he could...well you know, I wont say it.

No, they further prove what has been known and has been studied for a while now and that is HB’s will break down within a year or two of their second contract. Football outsiders I think it was did a deep dive on it last year after CMC got his contract and it basically shows there were one or two outliers, like AP who still tore his ACL, but the large majority flames out within two years of signing their second deal.

Anyone know how much uncle sam takes out of those millions + their agent?

(11-30-2021, 02:40 PM)Au165 Wrote: No, they further prove what has been known and has been studied for a while now and that is HB’s will break down within a year or two of their second contract. Football outsiders I think it was did a deep dive on it last year after CMC got his contract and it basically shows there were one or two outliers, like AP who still tore his ACL, but the large majority flames out within two years of signing their second deal.

They flame out as they age and get more carries. It has nothing to do with their second contract. The more carries Mixon gets the more he's going to flame out. I just don't get why you would use that argument in order to give him more carries this year. If anything I would think you would want to lighten his load as the season progresses in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs. 

(11-30-2021, 03:11 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: They flame out as they age and get more carries. It has nothing to do with their second contract. The more carries Mixon gets the more he's going to flame out. I just don't get why you would use that argument in order to give him more carries this year. If anything I would think you would want to lighten his load as the season progresses in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs. 

The second contract is more of a benchmark of when that has occurred and it has been a good historical marker, so rather than second contract go with year 5 or 6 in a HB career if the contract term really bothers you. The argument for using him up is that this year he is paid and we are riding him no matter what, but next year we should expect him to not complete the season and go in with a plan for when that occurs. I am more so just advocating for this is the year to ride him as far as he will take you rather than saving him for playoffs that aren't guaranteed knowing that any "saved" carries probably don't help keep him healthy next year if we don't use them up now.