(01-06-2022, 12:39 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: 2 yrs sounds about right. If he wins the super bowl, give him 4-5 yrs.

Yes, that would DEFINITELY change things. I mistyped my other response to you, meant to say red zone *turnovers* instead of penalties.

(01-06-2022, 11:31 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: He's right. What kills you is situational penalties. I've lined up several years of penalty data along with win % and tried to find correlations and everything is either very weak or nonexistent. If you are looking at penalties alone and want to predict the winningest teams, you're better off just throwing a dart at a wall of logos. The other things happening is that good teams can generally overcome penalty issues, generally. Not always, and situational penalties are killers (take the Chiefs penalties against Cincinnati this weekend as an example) but having more or less penalties as a whole doesn't seem to affect your win % much. 

SITUATIONAL PENALTIES ARE STILL PENALTIES. 

You admitted yourself that situation penalties are "the real killer". What am I missing here?

(01-06-2022, 12:48 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: SITUATIONAL PENALTIES ARE STILL PENALTIES. 

You admitted yourself that situation penalties are "the real killer". What am I missing here?

Perhaps I am not being clear here. Situational penalties referring to a penalty that brings back a long touchdown, or a 55 yard pass interference penalty on a game deciding drive. Those are the ones that hurt you the most but they are also generally rare. As a whole, though, penalties don't seem to affect winning percentage much. A penalty that brings back a touchdown isn't the same as a false start on 1st and 10, on 3rd and 2 or even a holding in any of those situations. Good teams can overcome those penalties. 

What Fred and I are talking about is the correlation between team victories and total penalties that have been called against them. Can you look at penalties and get a rough idea of how good that team was for that season, or even figure out who won that particular game? The answer is no, you can't. Penalties don't correlate to team record. 

(01-06-2022, 12:59 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Perhaps I am not being clear here. Situational penalties referring to a penalty that brings back a long touchdown, or a 55 yard pass interference penalty on a game deciding drive. Those are the ones that hurt you the most but they are also generally rare. As a whole, though, penalties don't seem to affect winning percentage much. A penalty that brings back a touchdown isn't the same as a false start on 1st and 10, on 3rd and 2 or even a holding in any of those situations. Good teams can overcome those penalties. 

What Fred and I are talking about is the correlation between team victories and total penalties that have been called against them. Can you look at penalties and get a rough idea of how good that team was for that season, or even figure out who won that particular game? The answer is no, you can't. Penalties don't correlate to team record. 

The Bengals last drive highlights this. The 3rd and 27 was the result of a holding penalty and then a sack. The conversion was the result of a bad decision by KC to single/press Chase and then Burrow and Chase making a play to overcome the losses. 

Yet the Bengals are getting less penalties and more wins at same time.

Would say teams like the steelers who cheap shot other teams players throughout the years trying to intimidate were rewarded with wins in the past.

Cheap shots are now flagged and frowned upon and believe this will change this fact over time.

Example, the top 4 least penalized teams in the NFL this season are

Bengals......... 10-6

Green Bay......13-3

Colts..............9-7

Rams..............12-4

(01-06-2022, 02:38 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Yet the Bengals are getting less penalties and more wins at same time.

Would say teams like the steelers who cheap shot other teams players throughout the years trying to intimidate were rewarded with wins in the past.

Cheap shots are now flagged and frowned upon and believe this will change this fact over time.

Example, the top 4 least penalized teams in the NFL this season are

Bengals......... 10-6

Green Bay......13-3

Colts..............9-7

Rams..............12-4

Maybe it changes over time, but it doesn’t appear to be changing this season. Dallas, Arizona, Buffalo and Las Vegas are all in the top five most penalized teams. I’d have to look at the league as whole to see if anything appears different, but I doubt much has changed.

In the majority of the Bengals losses this year,they beat themselves.Sloppy play and turnovers definitely cost them a few games.I agree that if this team has zero turnovers in the playoffs,they will be very difficult to eliminate.

(01-06-2022, 02:55 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Maybe it changes over time, but it doesn’t appear to be changing this season. Dallas, Arizona, Buffalo and Las Vegas are all in the top five most penalized teams. I’d have to look at the league as whole to see if anything appears different, but I doubt much has changed.

I would think ypg would have something to do with offsetting those penalties. I know Dallas is at or near the top and i'm sure the other 2 are as well. 

EDIT: Dallas, Buffalo and Arizona are all in the top 8 in ypg. Raiders are 11th.

(01-06-2022, 08:57 AM)fredtoast Wrote: There is no real correlation between penalties and winning.  Many times the teams with the most penalties  alos have the most wins.

"Saw a ray of positivity..... felt the compulsive need to take a dump on it" 

(01-06-2022, 02:07 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: The Bengals last drive highlights this. The 3rd and 27 was the result of a holding penalty and then a sack. The conversion was the result of a bad decision by KC to single/press Chase and then Burrow and Chase making a play to overcome the losses. 

That's literally one play. Such a small sample size. 

The fact of the matter is that 3rd and 27 was WAY harder to get than say a 3rd and 10 or whatever it was BEFORE the penalty. 

Lack of turnovers, and more so lack of penalties, is due to disciplined players. Disciplined players are the result of coaching.

(01-06-2022, 11:31 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: He's right. What kills you is situational penalties. I've lined up several years of penalty data along with win % and tried to find correlations and everything is either very weak or nonexistent. If you are looking at penalties alone and want to predict the winningest teams, you're better off just throwing a dart at a wall of logos. The other things happening is that good teams can generally overcome penalty issues, generally. Not always, and situational penalties are killers (take the Chiefs penalties against Cincinnati this weekend as an example) but having more or less penalties as a whole doesn't seem to affect your win % much. 

(01-06-2022, 12:33 PM)Wyche Wrote: Yes, situational penalties are the killer.....and we've been bad with those the last few years, sans 2021.

Right, it's not just the total penalties. Circumstances are everything ! You're down 10 starting the 4th qt. and have a 3rd and 2 and the laundry flies false start offense so now it's 3rd and 7 and the drive is killed and you end up losing.

(01-06-2022, 03:13 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: That's literally one play. Such a small sample size. 

The fact of the matter is that 3rd and 27 was WAY harder to get than say a 3rd and 10 or whatever it was BEFORE the penalty. 

It's just one recent example of how a good offense can overcome a false start or motion penalty, etc. If you have a good offense that moves the chains, you can afford to incur more penalties. No one really wants to, buy you can. The worse your offense is, the less you can afford penalties. 

Penalties are either an irritant or a killer - it IS situational. The Chiefs with the back to back bonehead fouls (both of which were not only legit but blatant) effectively committed suicide in football terms. Now they can't be said to have lost the game in that there was no guarantee that Mahomes drives down the field in 58 seconds with no timeouts for a game tying TD. By contrast, a False Start is aggravating on first down but the drive is still salvageable.

TURNOVERS on the other hand are killers a LOT more often - for one thing they are ending a drive without points and frequently they give the opponent better field position than a punt. And we can point directly to turnovers as why we lost pretty much every loss this season. That is the weird part - we beat ourselves in every loss.

That was the why for this thread - Burrow said he would work on the INTs and has done so and the team likewise has really cut down on the turnovers.

All penalties are not equal. Stats say the Stealers are usually one of the most penalized teams, but anyone who watches them knows the refs only throw flags at them when it doesn't really matter. If it is an important play, flags stay in their pockets.

(01-06-2022, 03:13 PM)Sled21 Wrote: "Saw a ray of positivity..... felt the compulsive need to take a dump on it" 

Prefers reality over make believe.

This team looks to be peaking at the right time.  If they keep it up and make a playoff run you will hear me saying a lot of good things about Zac.  But I don't see any need to swoon over something that is meaningless when it comes to wins and losses.

I have never seen a statistical study of top CBs and penalties, but I know for a few years there the best CBs in the league were also among the league leaders in penalties.  I don't know exactly why, but my theory is that the more often you are in tight enough coverage to make a play on a ball the more often you are tight enough on the receiver to commit a penalty. 

(01-06-2022, 02:55 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Maybe it changes over time, but it doesn’t appear to be changing this season. Dallas, Arizona, Buffalo and Las Vegas are all in the top five most penalized teams. I’d have to look at the league as whole to see if anything appears different, but I doubt much has changed.

Certain you a correct
but the top 4 this season does show that being less penalized doesn't hinder you from winning much either since all 4 are playoff bound and 3 of the 4 are Division winners.

Think it's a good thing personally, even if its not the overall deciding factor. 

(01-06-2022, 08:45 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Certain you a correct
but the top 4 this season does show that being less penalized doesn't hinder you from winning much either since all 4 are playoff bound and 3 of the 4 are Division winners.

Think it's a good thing personally, even if its not the overall deciding factor. 

Common sense tells you less penalized teams flourish more. But it’s not going to matter if you have a pourous defense or poor offense. However it does relate to discipline and it doesn’t happen magically. But delay of game penalties and holding calls are problematic to coaching. So some are very relatable to coaching. Special team penalties can reflect coaching. Pass interference can relate to coaching. But team efficiency is a big deal. The Bengals are #1 in points per play. They are the least penalized team.


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