(02-05-2022, 04:47 PM)M.W. Wrote: Not talking about trading him, I mean don't pay him $15m to stay.  Let him walk and use that money to get a serious upgrade to the OL.

I don't people realize how integral to this offense Boyd is.  You get rid of him and you take a big step back.

(02-05-2022, 04:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No way you can consider an O-line With Prince starting at RT to be "comparable" to Reiff.  Guess you have not noticed that without him we can't run very well, complete deep passes, or finish in the red zone.  Our offense only has 5 tds in 32 post season possessions.

And you only resigned one of Hill/Ogunjobi so we are also short a DT.

I also doubt we can bring back both Spain and Apple for $10 million

We beat the number 1,2 and 5 seeds in the playoffs without Reiff. We can bring back that same line next year. And yes one of the 1-2 big FA signings I was getting at would be RT which would be part of upgrading the line and team as a whole. That’s the spot I start with. Then I’d probably go to center if we can find a true stud there (not sure there will be one available). If so we could cut Hopkins to help pay for the upgrade there or move him to compete with Carman/etc at guard next year. I like Williams/Spain and I’m not going to throw in the towel on Carman after one year (we need a backup plan/competition for him tho). RT and then C are the potential upgrades in FA/draft I’d look at.

I like how Apple has improved this year but don’t see a huge bidding war for him. Teams are reluctant to sign guys to big deals after half a good season. Plus he talks a lot which I don’t see helping his FA appeal. Spain is and has always been a tough one to predict. For whatever reason the NFL does not seem to like him all that much. I don’t see him a year older suddenly proving a whole lot to other teams when he basically got a min deal last year. I think he’ll probably get $5-6 mil on medium length at best and who knows, maybe another shockingly low price.

(02-05-2022, 04:58 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: We beat the number 1,2 and 5 seeds in the playoffs without Reiff. We can bring back that same line next year. And yes one of the 1-2 big FA signings I was getting at would be RT which would be part of upgrading the line and team as a whole. That’s the spot I start with. Then I’d probably go to center if we can find a true stud there (not sure there will be one available). If so we could cut Hopkins to help pay for the upgrade there or move him to compete with Carman/etc at guard next year. I like Williams/Spain and I’m not going to throw in the towel on Carman after one year (we need a backup plan/competition for him tho). RT and then C are the potential upgrades in FA/draft I’d look at.

I like how Apple has improved this year but don’t see a huge bidding war for him. Teams are reluctant to sign guys to big deals after half a good season. Plus he talks a lot which I don’t see helping his FA appeal. Spain is and has always been a tough one to predict. For whatever reason the NFL does not seem to like him all that much. I don’t see him a year older suddenly proving a whole lot to other teams when he basically got a min deal last year. I think he’ll probably get $5-6 mil on medium length at best and who knows, maybe another shockingly low price.

Regarding Carman, I'm trying to think of examples where linemen have gotten better over the years.  I've never paid hard attention to the growth of linemen on other teams but it seems like in the Bengals case, we know after the first year if they're going to be worth a damn or not.  I'd love to hold out some hope with these guys if it's possible they can improve.

(02-05-2022, 03:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But we have no one on the roster now to replace starters Hopkins and Boyd.

It does not help to create more cap space if you are also creating new holes to fill.  That only works if you already have good young players with a lot of potential on the roster to step up into those holes.

I would argue that a guy like Morgan+ Taylor+ draft pick could fill the void of Boyd.  Also in all likely good Chase will probably play more slot as his career continues on which is what Boyd does.

2.) Hopkins needs to be replaced in free agency or draft this season.

(02-05-2022, 05:02 PM)basballguy Wrote: Regarding Carman, I'm trying to think of examples where linemen have gotten better over the years.  I've never paid hard attention to the growth of linemen on other teams but it seems like in the Bengals case, we know after the first year if they're going to be worth a damn or not.  I'd love to hold out some hope with these guys if it's possible they can improve.

Both Whitworth and Boling struggled when they were forced to start as rookies due to injuries.

(02-05-2022, 05:02 PM)basballguy Wrote: Regarding Carman, I'm trying to think of examples where linemen have gotten better over the years.  I've never paid hard attention to the growth of linemen on other teams but it seems like in the Bengals case, we know after the first year if they're going to be worth a damn or not.  I'd love to hold out some hope with these guys if it's possible they can improve.

Boiling was terrible his rookie season and turned it around. Same thing for Andre Smith 

(02-05-2022, 05:04 PM)J24 Wrote: 2.) Hopkins needs to be replaced in free agency or draft this season.

1.  What are our chances of drafting a center who will start as a rookie?  And don't just give me a random example of it happening.  Give me some idea of what percent chance you think we have.

2.  Hopkins will make $6.8 million this year.  How much are you willing to spend to replace him?

(02-05-2022, 04:58 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: We beat the number 1,2 and 5 seeds in the playoffs without Reiff. We can bring back that same line next year.

Based on this logic we don't have to upgrade a single position.

You really want to make that argument?

(02-05-2022, 05:06 PM)J24 Wrote: Boiling was terrible his rookie season and turned it around. Same thing for Andre Smith 

Boiling was formidable, ok I"ll take that.  

Haha, I dunno about Andre Smith.  Seemed like he only played well enough to get a great first contract extension then gave up immediately after.  

That aside, if we want to improve the line and give a chance for our guys to develop then i think free agency is the best bet for us to upgrade the line but that seems to be expensive.  

Reiff, starter
Ogunjobi, starter
Bates, starter
Spain, starter
Apple, starter

B.J. Hill, 50% of snaps
Tupou, 40% of snaps

Bates, Spain, and BJ Hill can stick around. Spain and BJ Bill should be able to be kept around at a decent price. Franchise/resign Bates to a good contract.

Larry will most likely cost to much. If he's not a good value then cya. Reiff is washed. He got abused in games at times.

We get Ossai back on the DL. You can draft a first round corner to replace Apple. He was lightning in a bottle.

Should be plenty of money for a couple really good FA pieces and a couple good ones. I'd go RG for sure. Draft a CB and interior DL in the first couple rounds.

(02-05-2022, 04:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I've been saying the same thing in my mocks from the past couple months.
It seems like a lot, but when you look, the Bengals only have ~35 players under contract for 2022.


I know people think that players might be willing to sign for a discount to play with Burrow, but I doubt it'd be THAT much of a discount.

Some of the more impactful players the Bengals have that are set to hit FA should fetch $5+ mill each, which will go through that cap kinda fast.

They might only be able to sign a good starter or two while retaining most of their talent.

We'll have to see how FA pans out starting mid-March.

This is fine with me as long as both of those good starters are OL.  OL is literally our only true weakness.  Every other position group is at least average and all young.   Also, we suck at drafting OL and seem to be killer at drafting everything else so buy an OL and let our FO continue to find gems at every other position via the draft.

(02-05-2022, 05:13 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Based on this logic we don't have to upgrade a single position.

You really want to make that argument?

No, that is not my argument. I’ve said in this thread and others that we can win the Super Bowl and thanks to our cap space be BETTER next year. That doesn’t mean ignoring our weakest link. I’ve clearly said we can and should upgrade OL. Please show me where I said we don’t need to.

(02-05-2022, 04:40 PM)fredtoast Wrote: When you pick in the top ten you can feel better about drafting a guy who will start as a rookie.  And if you draft in the top ten you are usually desperate for a guy who will start as a rookie.  At 31-32 you are drafting a guy that will probably need a year to develop (unless you are drafting a WR or RB).

When you draft in the top ten you also have a much better idea of exactly which players will be available in order to target a specific position.  When you draft at 31-32 you are much more likely to go BPA because it might be too big of a reach to take a player at a position of need.

I would hate to spen all of our free agent money before the draft and still have an important hole to fill.

This is why the Bengals should use some of their draft picks to trade up or trade for players. They are the youngest team in the league and their window is now. They don't need a million picks this year. They just need to hit on a couple quality players. 

(02-05-2022, 05:14 PM)basballguy Wrote: Haha, I dunno about Andre Smith.  Seemed like he only played well enough to get a great first contract extension then gave up immediately after.  

This is a great example of how many fans never got over the hatred of Smith for his first two seasons.

Smith developed into a very good RT and his best season was probably 2013 just AFTER he got his contract extension.

He never lived up to his draft hype, and we did not get a lot of good years out of him, but he was a key reason we went to the playoffs from '11-'15.

(02-05-2022, 05:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1.  What are our chances of drafting a center who will start as a rookie?  And don't just give me a random example of it happening.  Give me some idea of what percent chance you think we have.

2.  Hopkins will make $6.8 million this year.  How much are you willing to spend to replace him?

Option A -We could sign James Daniels for 10 million and he would be upgrade over Hopkins. 
Option B ) Trade up to draft Tyler Linderbaum in the draft.
Option C.) Trade a 1st RD pick for Frank Rangow

also Creed Humphrey was drafted in the 2nd RD last year and started for the chiefs.

The truth about the OL is we don't need all-pro players (it would be nice but not needed). Burrow is so good at evading pressure all we need is 5 solid starters and a few solid backups. If our OL can be average Burrow will chew up defenses. A risky but potentially homerun play in the draft would be to trade our first and third to move up to low 20s if Linderbaum falls there. Linderbaum is a damn near sure thing future pro bowl center. Sign Spain, sign a good RG and good RT. Again, don't need the best of the best but keep DL out of Joe's lap and he will reach his elite potential.

(02-05-2022, 05:23 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This is why the Bengals should use some of their draft picks to trade up or trade for players. They are the youngest team in the league and their window is now. They don't need a million picks this year. They just need to hit on a couple quality players. 

I don't think moving up a few slots really improves the chances of getting a top player unless you are talking about the first 10-15 picks.  And no way we are going to be able to move up that high.

Look at what the Patriots did for years when they had solid rosters and picked 31-32.  They traded BACK for more picks.  I agree with them that the best way to improve your chances of getting a good player is to increase your number of chances.

(02-05-2022, 05:02 PM)basballguy Wrote: Regarding Carman, I'm trying to think of examples where linemen have gotten better over the years.  I've never paid hard attention to the growth of linemen on other teams but it seems like in the Bengals case, we know after the first year if they're going to be worth a damn or not.  I'd love to hold out some hope with these guys if it's possible they can improve.

(02-05-2022, 05:05 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Both Whitworth and Boling struggled when they were forced to start as rookies due to injuries.

Fred posted the first two that came to mind for me. OL is a very hard place to come in and look good as rookies anymore. Some guys do but a lot can’t.

Outside of Cincy: I remember Philly fans calling Lane Johnson a bust after his first season too. Kolton Miller looked like a bust and has gotten better each year. Same with Chris Lindstrom. There are plenty of examples.

(02-05-2022, 05:29 PM)J24 Wrote: Option A -We could sign James Daniels for 10 million and he would be upgrade over Hopkins. 
Option B ) Trade up to draft Tyler Linderbaum in the draft.
Option C.) Trade a 1st RD pick for Frank Rangow

also Creed Humphrey was drafted in the 2nd RD last year and started for the chiefs.

I'm watching Zion Johnson and Dylan Parham playing center and playing well not perfect but good... Parham has looked the best actually. 

Good OP from Fred.

Let us break it down. Assume Waynes is gone + $3 mil for XSF = $14 mil more. $72 mil.

Priority #1: Bates.

He is likely the most expensive guy we have. He underachieved in the regular season after a stellar 2020. Has come up big in the POs. I think $20 mil is too much for a FS with only 1 good year. And who is weak vs the run. Franchise tag is estimated at $13 mil. That keaves us with $59 mil.

https://www.spotrac.com/spots/projected-2022-nfl-tenders-franchise-tag-values-1349/

If things get ugly, a good safery should be available at #31/#32.

Priority #2: Spain.

Rule #1 when you are in a hole, stop digging. The OL is a hole, but Spain is one of our top 2. Keep him and try to inprove the rest. He is solid but not exceptional. I do not see Carman, Adeniji, or Smith ready to start yet. Say $7 mil? He has said ye wants to be back. Hope he is a bridge vet and Carman eventually takes RG from him. $53 mil left.

Kenyon Green has a chance to be there at #31/#32, but I would not count on it. Plus, I think RT will be priority. But, Zion Johnson is likely there.

Priority #3: CJ.

Upgrading at TE#3 is also a priority. Dropoff after CJ is huge. Again, if in hole, stop digging. I also think CJ is willing to come back in a reasonable deal. $8 mil. $45 mil.

Priority #4. DT. Hill, Ogunjobi, Tupou.

Gotta bring 2 back, or at least 1. I think the plan was to have Shelvin take over for Tupou as NT#2, but not sure if he is ready yet. Tupou can play both NT & DT, Shelvin cannot. Mike Daniels also a possible short term solution there. Tupou is likely the cheapest of the 3.

Ogunjobi the most expensive, and the only real guy who gets pressure semi-consistently from the inside. Though with Ossai back next year, we coukd see more of Hubbard & Sample inside.

Will be interesting. Say we go big and spend $15 for Larry O AND Hill. Down to $30 mil.

Priority #5. Apple/CB.

I think he is likely to have the most inflated opinion of his own worth. I would not go much over $6 mil. If not enough, I'd draft someone or go for another FA in that price range. $24 mil.

Priority #6. Reiff/RT.

If Reiff voids his deal, we save $2.75 mil, rounded to $3 mil. $27 mil. I think the RT FAs are too pricey, mostly LT guys. We could try to sign him on the cheap to play LG and be the swing tackle and mentor the guy we draft (Penning, Raimann, etc). Say $5 mil. $22 mil left.

We have $22 mil left and have to deal with the draft pool. Say $10 mil. Down to $12 mil. Of course, that is 8 more guys. Some of the guys drafted will displace vets. We'll save some dollars there. Say $5. Back to $17 mil.

Enough to get an immediate mild RG/C upgrade ($6 mil to $10 mil). We could save $6 mil by letting Hopkins walk. If not, we still have $7-$11 mil for the rest of the roster or emergency moves in season.

Again, rough back of the napkin stuff. And that is with re-signing Bates, Spain, CJ, Larry O, Hill, Apple, and Reiff. If we let one or more walk, or let Hopkins go, we could save even more.

But I do not expect us to have a shopping spree. I do expect 1 impact level offensive lineman signed. With another impact FA possible if we let Hopkins go or let another if our iwn FAs walk.