(02-07-2022, 04:05 PM)Whatever Wrote: He gave up 2 40+ yard plays in the Titans game (got beat in coverage by AJ Brown and whiffed on a tackle on Foreman in run support).  He's made some big plays, too, but elite is a stretch.

That 122 passer rating allowed was 16th worst in the league.  That includes LB's and CB's, too.  That's brutally bad.  With a serious need for some quality OL, I don't see how you can back up a Brink's truck for a guy that inconsistent.

Agreed.  That is why you tag him. If he plays like 2020/2022 post season Bates next year, you back the truck up. If he plays like 2021 regular season, you let him ealk a pick a safety in the draft. 

(02-07-2022, 04:24 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Agreed.  That is why you tag him. If he plays like 2020/2022 post season Bates next year, you back the truck up. If he plays like 2021 regular season, you let him ealk a pick a safety in the draft. 

Which Tag would you use... Franchise? or Transition? and are there other players it might be better to apply them to

(02-07-2022, 04:05 PM)Whatever Wrote: He gave up 2 40+ yard plays in the Titans game (got beat in coverage by AJ Brown and whiffed on a tackle on Foreman in run support).  He's made some big plays, too, but elite is a stretch.

That 122 passer rating allowed was 16th worst in the league.  That includes LB's and CB's, too.  That's brutally bad.  With a serious need for some quality OL, I don't see how you can back up a Brink's truck for a guy that inconsistent.

He will be only 25,  two time Captain,  only missed two games in his career,  had an All pro caliber season in 2020, and he is playing like a superstar this post season. If you don't see how good and important this dude is to this team. Then I don't know what to tell you.

You say elite(for the post season) is a stretch but he has been top 3 in both passer rating and incompletion percentage. Which happens to be the two most important stats to judge a defensive back on.

As for the two big plays. Those plays are going to happen against elite players. AJ Brown made a play and any safety could have miss that Tackle against Forman.

(02-07-2022, 04:24 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Agreed.  That is why you tag him. If he plays like 2020/2022 post season Bates next year, you back the truck up. If he plays like 2021 regular season, you let him ealk a pick a safety in the draft. 

Bates had his opportunity this to prove he was worth a big long term deal.  Why would we FT him and pay him Top 5 money to give him another opportunity to earn a big contract?  If Bates wants to stay a Bengal and earn a long term deal, the honus is on him to sign a prove it type deal.

With the serious need for quality OL upgrades, there's just no way you can pay $13 million for what was arguably the worst starting S in the league last year.

(02-07-2022, 04:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Jonah Williams is only finishing up his 3rd year. 5th year option has to be decided upon this offseason.
Given his success, I do expect he'll get that 5th year option, keeping him through 2023.

Good point. It will be interesting when they decide to extend each of these guys on their 1st contracts.

(02-07-2022, 02:50 PM)mikey6866 Wrote: Lets see 70 MIL.

Bradley bozeman C - 9 mil per year
Austin corbett RG - 9 mil per year
Trent brown RT - 12-14 mil
Jessie bates S - 13 mil on franchise tag

We could essentially sign 3/5 of Oline from outside our organization, and retain our best free agent and still have 25 mil left to sign or retain guys like uzomah, hill, ogunjobi or even apple.  Not to mention how we can easily structure or restucture any contract at any time.  If we sign Oline and we lose ogunjobi or hill or apple we just draft their replacement in the early rounds.  We can free up dollars cutting hopkins if we sign a center as well.  We are in great position to get oline fixed and really open up the draft to get some young talent on D to supplement the money we have spent there the past 2 offseasons.  They spent most of the FA dollars on D recently and they need to spend on the oline this year and then draft is wide open for some young defensive talent.  That how the NFL works.

That's $43-45 mill just out of those 4.

Bengals only have 34 players under contract for 2022 if Reiff voids his contract (assuming yes if you're replacing him with Brown) and Waynes is cut (assuming yes if you're getting around $70 mill in cap).

You're now at 38 with the 4 guys you said to add, and you need to get to 51 (including draft).
Vet minimum is just under $1 mill.

You need to replace/re-sign the following players (starters in bold):
- Eli Apple (CB2)
- Ricardo Allen (SS2)
- Darius Phillips (CB5)
- Trae Waynes (CB4)
- Tre Flowers/Vernon Hargreaves (CB6)
- Jordan Evans (LB5)
- Larry Ogunjobi (UT1)
- BJ Hill (UT2)
- CJ Uzomah (TE1)
- Auden Tate (WR4)
- Mike Thomas (WR5)
- Trent Taylor (WR6 + PR)
- Brandon Allen (QB2)
- Mitchell Wilcox (TE3)

Draft should cover about 5 of those, possibly up to 7.
But the others you'll have to figure out how to fill with only ~$20 mill in cap.
It's very possible that Apple, Uzomah, and one of the DTs costs almost $20 mill alone.
And that doesn't even start to address that there are a few positions that the depth is bad, which means more players could/should get replaced.

(02-05-2022, 03:33 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: Nice breakdown Fred. I’m not sure why this thread is ranked at only 1 star.

Because fred has a fan club.  :)

(02-07-2022, 04:32 PM)J24 Wrote: He will be only 25,  two time Captain,  only missed two games in his career,  had an All pro caliber season in 2020, and he is playing like a superstar this post season. If you don't see how good and important this dude is to this team. Then I don't know what to tell you.

You say elite(for the post season) is a stretch but he has been top 3 in both passer rating and incompletion percentage. Which happens to be the two most important stats to judge a defensive back on.

As for the two big plays. Those plays are going to happen against elite players. AJ Brown made a play and any safety could have miss that Tackle against Forman.

Most players going into their 2nd contract are 25-26.  We won 4 games his first year as a captain.  This year he admitted he isolated himself from the rest of the team and his teammates were constantly texting him to make sure he was ok.  Not only did his poor play hurt us on the field, he allowed his contract status to create a distraction off of it.  He did have an All Pro season in '20 and deserves full credit for that.  However, he was also mediocre in '19 with a 100.1 passer rating allowed and 62.5% completion % allowed.  If you could be reasonably assured of getting '20 Bates, there wouldn't be a big issue signing him to a big contract, but you can't.  His level of play swings wildly from year to year.  

Dude, Bates isn't even 3rd on the Bengals in passer rating allowed this postseason.  Wilson is 62.2, Pratt is 68.2, Hilton is 43.8, Bell is 66.2, and Bates is 78.0.  

I think Joe Burrow can make more in endorsements than he does with his football salary and bonuses. So maybe like Brady and others he will be more likely to not make us pay through the nose in later contracts so we can use the money to add pieces around him to help him win more games
maybe young man has a shot at huge endorsements with her personality

I predict bi bucks for Joe B this off season as great guy to be a spokesperson for big companies

(02-07-2022, 08:13 PM)Whatever Wrote: Most players going into their 2nd contract are 25-26.  We won 4 games his first year as a captain.  This year he admitted he isolated himself from the rest of the team and his teammates were constantly texting him to make sure he was ok.  Not only did his poor play hurt us on the field, he allowed his contract status to create a distraction off of it.  He did have an All Pro season in '20 and deserves full credit for that.  However, he was also mediocre in '19 with a 100.1 passer rating allowed and 62.5% completion % allowed.  If you could be reasonably assured of getting '20 Bates, there wouldn't be a big issue signing him to a big contract, but you can't.  His level of play swings wildly from year to year.  

Dude, Bates isn't even 3rd on the Bengals in passer rating allowed this postseason.  Wilson is 62.2, Pratt is 68.2, Hilton is 43.8, Bell is 66.2, and Bates is 78.0.  

https://twitter.com/PFF_AndrewR/status/1488170054386651146?t=emTleHCLze17255cyP2sCQ&s=19

(02-07-2022, 05:51 PM)ochocincos Wrote: That's $43-45 mill just out of those 4.

Bengals only have 34 players under contract for 2022 if Reiff voids his contract (assuming yes if you're replacing him with Brown) and Waynes is cut (assuming yes if you're getting around $70 mill in cap).

You're now at 38 with the 4 guys you said to add, and you need to get to 51 (including draft).
Vet minimum is just under $1 mill.

You need to replace/re-sign the following players (starters in bold):
- Eli Apple (CB2)
- Ricardo Allen (SS2)
- Darius Phillips (CB5)
- Trae Waynes (CB4)
- Tre Flowers/Vernon Hargreaves (CB6)
- Jordan Evans (LB5)
- Larry Ogunjobi (UT1)
- BJ Hill (UT2)
- CJ Uzomah (TE1)
- Auden Tate (WR4)
- Mike Thomas (WR5)
- Trent Taylor (WR6 + PR)
- Brandon Allen (QB2)
- Mitchell Wilcox (TE3)

Draft should cover about 5 of those, possibly up to 7.
But the others you'll have to figure out how to fill with only ~$20 mill in cap.
It's very possible that Apple, Uzomah, and one of the DTs costs almost $20 mill alone.
And that doesn't even start to address that there are a few positions that the depth is bad, which means more players could/should get replaced.

Reiff 2nd yr was voided the day he signed.  They structured contract to have dead money in yr 2 and is only a 1 yr year contract with 2nd yr voided.  He is UFA when FA starts.

Those numbers listed above was a generic illustration of what i thought those players AAV would be.  That doesnt mean thats what their cap number would be, that was just a generic illustration to show that we would still have a bunch of cap room with 4 "high dollar" signings.  We can also pick up another 6 million cutting hopkins if we sign a guy like bozeman.  The cap is so easily manipulated we could technically sign the 4 i listed plus all of our FA / draft picks and still be 15-20 mil under cap.  I think most fans really dont understand the cap and then they get complete nonsense articles from Hobson who has no idea how cap works and they believe its impossible to sign guys to deals.  Look around the league.  We have seen teams almost 100 million over cap and not cut any real quality players and magically be under cap.  We have seen teams with 2 million in cap space sign players to mega deals.  The brown family doesnt usually operate that way so i went for a more realistic approach where those 4 i listed would be easily signable with no real cap manipulation.  I believe we will sign Uzomah as well.  Well have to decide between Ogunjobi or Hill.  I dont think anybody really sees Apple as the long term starter, so if a team is willing to give him starter money look for him to be replaced with pick #32!!!!.  If we dont fix oline in FA the priority in draft has to be Oline.  I prefer to fix oline with young veterans because oline is hardest position to transition from college to pros, fixing oline with veterans would be my approach.  In my opinion, the oline we sign is much more important to the future success of the team than say somebody like eli apple or ogunjobi.

(02-08-2022, 10:30 AM)mikey6866 Wrote: Reiff 2nd yr was voided the day he signed.  They structured contract to have dead money in yr 2 and is only a 1 yr year contract with 2nd yr voided.  He is UFA when FA starts.

Those numbers listed above was a generic illustration of what i thought those players AAV would be.  That doesnt mean thats what their cap number would be, that was just a generic illustration to show that we would still have a bunch of cap room with 4 "high dollar" signings.  We can also pick up another 6 million cutting hopkins if we sign a guy like bozeman.  The cap is so easily manipulated we could technically sign the 4 i listed plus all of our FA / draft picks and still be 15-20 mil under cap.  I think most fans really dont understand the cap and then they get complete nonsense articles from Hobson who has no idea how cap works and they believe its impossible to sign guys to deals.  Look around the league.  We have seen teams almost 100 million over cap and not cut any real quality players and magically be under cap.  We have seen teams with 2 million in cap space sign players to mega deals.  The brown family doesnt usually operate that way so i went for a more realistic approach where those 4 i listed would be easily signable with no real cap manipulation.  I believe we will sign Uzomah as well.  Well have to decide between Ogunjobi or Hill.  I dont think anybody really sees Apple as the long term starter, so if a team is willing to give him starter money look for him to be replaced with pick #32!!!!.  If we dont fix oline in FA the priority in draft has to be Oline.  I prefer to fix oline with young veterans because oline is hardest position to transition from college to pros, fixing oline with veterans would be my approach.  In my opinion, the oline we sign is much more important to the future success of the team than say somebody like eli apple or ogunjobi.

I didn't realize the contract was already voided. I thought Reiff had the option to do that if he wanted but he didn't yet.

I don't know if I'd be a fan of Bradley Bozeman. He's a better run blocker for sure, but he's not been consistently a better pass blocker than Hopkins.

You mention how teams can finagle the cap to fit guys in, but the Bengals don't typically do much of that. They don't restructure. Once they get a contract set, they typically leave it. About the most we can expect is a potential cut if there is a good amount that could be saved cutting that player.

I think Apple needs to be retained and still draft a CB, as teams always have CBs get injured. I wouldn't offer Apple that much. Maybe $5 mill or less. There are other good CBs the Bengals can sign for that much if Apple leaves for more $$.

What I'd expect the Bengals to do for OL:
Re-sign Spain, keeping the left side intact
Keeping Hopkins at C. He's much improved the second half of the season.
Re-sign Reiff or sign another vet FA to cover RT
Maybe draft a new, true OG on Day 1 or 2. That guy can compete with Adeniji and Carman for starting at RG.
Draft a swing OT as well to groom behind the new RT and Jonah Williams.

I think a good amount of money will be used to retain their own guys like Uzomah, Hill/Ogunjobi (maybe both), Spain, and Apple. They'll probably tag Bates if they can't come to a long-term deal before the tag deadline. Or maybe they'll let him walk, which would allow $10+ mill to go toward a FA OL. They've never paid a safety $10+ mill a year, so it's hard to tell.

(02-08-2022, 10:30 AM)mikey6866 Wrote: The cap is so easily manipulated we could technically sign the 4 i listed plus all of our FA / draft picks and still be 15-20 mil under cap.

No we could not.

The four you listed would cost 45.  That just leaves 23 million.

So how do we sign Uzomah, Hill, Ogunjobi, Apple, plus allm our other free agents for 3 to 8 million to be 15-20 million under the cap?

Planning on our #31-32 pick to be an instant starter as a rookie is not smart?

If the cap was as easy to manipulate as you claim then we would not see the wave of free agents that are cut for "cap reasons" every year.

I was watching some NFL news yesterday and they mentioned the highest paid player on the Bengals is Henderickson. Think he is aroun 13m/yr. Nobody else on the Bengals is even 10M.

Compare that to the Rams - 4 players at or above 15M and if I recall correctly, Henderickson would be their 5th highest paid player.

To me this means:

Cincinnati gets great value and drafts well.
Cincinnati signs free agents prudently (normally)
Cincinnati is a team built to last!

Rams - will be in cap trouble super soon.
Rams mortgaged their future for this run.

We don't want to be like the Rams..

(02-08-2022, 11:17 AM)M.W. Wrote: I was watching some NFL news yesterday and they mentioned the highest paid player on the Bengals is Henderickson.  Think he is aroun 13m/yr.  Nobody else on the Bengals is even 10M.  

Compare that to the Rams - 4 players at or above 15M and if I recall correctly, Henderickson would be their 5th highest paid player.

To me this means:

Cincinnati gets great value and drafts well.
Cincinnati signs free agents prudently (normally)
Cincinnati is a team built to last!

Rams - will be in cap trouble super soon.
Rams mortgaged their future for this run.

We don't want to be like the Rams..

Obviously the Rams won't care if the win the Super Bowl but when they lose Sunday it's going to be a franchise in the suck zone of cap issues and minimal picks.

Edit: agreed, we don't want the Bengals in this spot.

(02-08-2022, 11:02 AM)fredtoast Wrote: No we could not.

The four you listed would cost 45.  That just leaves 23 million.

That's the problem with this entire thread. Just because a guy signs a contract that averages $10m/yr doesn't mean his cap hit will be $10m each year.

The Bengals signed Trey Hendrickson to a 4yr/$60m contract. $15m/yr average. You keep calculating that in this thread as if that means it will eat up $15m of cap space in 2022 if they signed him to that now... but in 2021 his cap hit wasn't $15m, it was $12.5m.

In fact it's actually harder to find a contract that DOESN'T escalate in cap hits through it's duration.

That really adds up even if you're not intentionally backloading....

Hendrickson: $15m/yr average, actually $12.5m cap hit in 2021
Awuzie: $7.25m/yr average, actually $6m cap hit in 2021
Hilton: $6m/yr average, actually $5.3m cap hit in 2021

According to you in this thread: That's automatically $28.25m in cap space used up.
According to the reality of their contracts: $23.8m in cap space used up.

All of a sudden $4.45m that didn't exist according to your method just cleared up and it didn't even require any kind of deferred money, conversion to bonuses, extensions to push cap numbers down, or back loading contracts. Once you actually get into THAT, it becomes a whole bigger thing.

(02-08-2022, 11:17 AM)M.W. Wrote: I was watching some NFL news yesterday and they mentioned the highest paid player on the Bengals is Henderickson.  Think he is aroun 13m/yr.  Nobody else on the Bengals is even 10M.  

Compare that to the Rams - 4 players at or above 15M and if I recall correctly, Henderickson would be their 5th highest paid player.

They were talking about next year ('22).  Rams have 121.5 million committed to just 6 players.  That is approximately 70% of their cap space.

Rams have not had a first round pick since 2016 and they don't have another one until 2024.

(02-08-2022, 11:17 AM)M.W. Wrote: I was watching some NFL news yesterday and they mentioned the highest paid player on the Bengals is Henderickson.  Think he is aroun 13m/yr.  Nobody else on the Bengals is even 10M.  

Compare that to the Rams - 4 players at or above 15M and if I recall correctly, Henderickson would be their 5th highest paid player.

To me this means:

Cincinnati gets great value and drafts well.
Cincinnati signs free agents prudently (normally)
Cincinnati is a team built to last!

Rams - will be in cap trouble super soon.
Rams mortgaged their future for this run.

We don't want to be like the Rams..

Incorrect.

The Bengals have 3 players making $10+ mill this season.
Hendrickson - $12.476 mill
Reader - $13.562 mill
Waynes - $15.8 mill

Next year, the Bengals will have 5 players above $10 mill - Boyd ($10.1), Mixon ($11.4), Reader ($13.6), Hendrickson ($14.5), and Waynes ($15.8).
Waynes can be cut this coming offseason though to free up $11 mill in cap.

(02-08-2022, 11:22 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Obviously the Rams won't care if the win the Super Bowl but when they lose Sunday it's going to be a franchise in the suck zone of cap issues and minimal picks.

Edit: agreed, we don't want the Bengals im this spot.

People thought the same thing for years with teams like Pittsburgh and New Orleans, but those teams restructured players out the wazoo to keep just under the cap year-to-year and stay mostly competitive.

Rams will find a way to do the same.

(02-08-2022, 11:02 AM)fredtoast Wrote: No we could not.

The four you listed would cost 45.  That just leaves 23 million.

So how do we sign Uzomah, Hill, Ogunjobi, Apple, plus allm our other free agents for 3 to 8 million to be 15-20 million under the cap?

Planning on our #31-32 pick to be an instant starter as a rookie is not smart?

If the cap was as easy to manipulate as you claim then we would not see the wave of free agents that are cut for "cap reasons" every year.

You have no clue how the cap works.  None at all. To do this we would have to backload all of the deals and possible restructure existing contracts which we wont do. My point is its possible and easy to do if the FO wanted to do it. Im not saying its smart, im saying the cap is so easily manipulated that we could do that if we wanted. AAV is not cap number. I explained this earlier as well. It the same way the eagles and saints have made near 100 million in cap overages just disappear. Its the same way the steelers have restructured every single deal year after year to push money forward. There are alot of ways to manipulate the cap year after year and alot of teams do it. Once again this is not what im suggesting, im simply illustrating how easy it is to do.