(02-08-2022, 03:40 PM)Nepa Wrote: Good points.  Although I think Araiza is known as a punter who hits balls with a low hang-time, getting a lot of yardage, but more of line drives. Will it translate to the NFL or will it change how the NFL operates, or will he adjust to add hang-time? I don't know if its 100% slam dunk like Shooter was. Maybe it is and he will be a huge weapon. 

I don't care how far you punt it, if you can't get decent hang time in the NFL you are going to suffer returns.

(02-08-2022, 04:06 PM)fredtoast Wrote: The #96 pick is pretty much a 4th rounder.

Very close, but it's technically still a 3rd rounder.

And if I can get a Logan Wilson, Geno Atkins, or Clint Boling with that pick, I'm trying to do that.

(02-08-2022, 04:45 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I don't care how far you punt it, if you can't get decent hang time in the NFL you are going to suffer returns.

Absolutely!

(02-08-2022, 03:39 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: How is taking a game changing punter who will actually participate in improving the team and helping to win in all 17 games worse than taking depth?

"If we take a starter rather than a backup, we riot!"

It doesn't make sense.

He's the "starting punter"?  Lmao...If dude really rips 70 yard punts at will thats interesting.  I still don't think you should pick a non-postion player in the 3rd.

(02-08-2022, 04:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Probably because the difference you're talking about doesn't seem that much.
The top punter in 2021 had an average of 50.0.
The 32nd punter in 2021 had an average of 42.9.

Every starting punter had a long punt of 60+ yards.

So when you think about it, is it that big of a deal if a team ends up taking over at the 25 vs 20?
I'm not sure how much that matters.
It obviously does if you're punting closer to your own EZ and trying to get the opposing team to start on their own side of the field compared to the 50, but the Bengals offense should not be struggling much that they should be punting close to their own end zone frequently.


On the flip side, a good kicker directly results in points.
And McPherson is able to hit far more 45+ yard FGs than Bullock.
So McPherson compared to Bullock is the difference of many points.

I guess the way I look at it is I expect a 3rd rounder to become a starter within ~3 years.
Would you rather have a future starter on offense/defense, or a punter who may average 5 more yards per punt?

A defensive player doesn't directly result in points either. You still value them. Why? They help you stop teams from scoring points and help you win the field position battle, which DOES lead to more points due to shorter fields needed for you to score. That's exactly what a punter does too.

McPherson can get more 45+ yard FGs than Bullock. But if the offense has to go 5 yards further to get into that range, they will fail to do so more often. That is a reduction in points. That's what you're doing to other teams offenses with a great punter.

I literally posted a listed for you of the last 10 3rd round picks the Bengals have made. It's not a good list. 

Yes, I will take a punter who can be the best in the league from Day 1 and then continue to do so for 20 years over a guy who MAY become a starter 3 years from now (but probably won't). The Bengals window is NOW, they are in the Super Bowl. You need to spend all your resources on going to the Super Bowl again in 2022, and then do the same again to go in 2023, not worrying now about adding depth guys who MAY be starters 3 years from now.

Don't ignore the window being open.

Vince Lombardi said the NFL is a game of inches, and inches make championships and you're here shitting on potentially getting an extra 5 yards of field position advantage each punt.

(02-08-2022, 04:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Very close, but it's technically still a 3rd rounder.

And if I can get a Logan Wilson, Geno Atkins, or Clint Boling with that pick, I'm trying to do that.

Except you're significantly more likely to get Brandon Ghee, Rodderick Muckleroy, Dontay Moch, Ryan Finley, Mark Walton, Josh Malone, Josh Shaw, Marcus Hardison, Will Clarke, Sean Porter, Orson Charles, etc, etc, etc....

(02-08-2022, 05:06 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: A defensive player doesn't directly result in points either. You still value them. Why? They help you stop teams from scoring points and help you win the field position battle, which DOES lead to more points due to shorter fields needed for you to score. That's exactly what a punter does too.

McPherson can get more 45+ yard FGs than Bullock. But if the offense has to go 5 yards further to get into that range, they will fail to do so more often. That is a reduction in points. That's what you're doing to other teams offenses with a great punter.

I literally posted a listed for you of the last 10 3rd round picks the Bengals have made. It's not a good list. 

Yes, I will take a punter who can be the best in the league from Day 1 and then continue to do so for 20 years over a guy who MAY become a starter 3 years from now (but probably won't). The Bengals window is NOW, they are in the Super Bowl. You need to spend all your resources on going to the Super Bowl again in 2022, and then do the same again to go in 2023, not worrying now about adding depth guys who MAY be starters 3 years from now.

Don't ignore the window being open.

Vince Lombardi said the NFL is a game of inches, and inches make championships and you're here shitting on potentially getting an extra 5 yards of field position advantage each punt.

We're going to have to agree to disagree then.

I do understand your stance, I just still wouldn't take a punter that early.

My stance is that the Bengals still need upgrades at certain offensive/defensive positions (both starters and depth), so I would prioritize those first.
OL depth is atrocious. RG starter is bad. Bengals could also need a starting RT.
The team only has 1 TE under contract next year, and it's not a TE that people like.
3 of the team's 5 DTs are set to hit FA, including a starter and another dude who's good enough to be a starter.
DB depth is concerning with Phillips, Apple, Flowers, and Hargreaves all set to hit FA. Plus, people want Waynes let go, which means yet another spot to fill.
Bengals might decide they don't wanna give $10+ mill to a safety, potentially resulting in starting FS to also need addressed.
All the depth WRs are set to hit FA.
People want more explosion from the RB group.

All I'm saying is there are a lot of offensive and defensive positions still to address, and my opinion is those are more important to shore up compared to getting an upgrade at punter.

Also, to McPherson point - Bengals didn't have to spend a 3rd rounder on him. They got him in the 5th, and he was an upgrade. If a team wants to spend a 3rd or 4th on a punter, they can go ahead. I'm willing to try to upgrade that position, but not that early.

(02-08-2022, 05:11 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except you're significantly more likely to get Brandon Ghee, Rodderick Muckleroy, Dontay Moch, Ryan Finley, Mark Walton, Josh Malone, Josh Shaw, Marcus Hardison, Will Clarke, Sean Porter, Orson Charles, etc, etc, etc....

The success rate on draft picks is amazing to look at as a whole for the NFL.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Notables from the numbers:


- If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.

- TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.

- You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.

- QBs seem to be first round or bust.

- O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.

- Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.

- Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick. (Found this one to be very interesting.)

RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee.

(02-08-2022, 05:11 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except you're significantly more likely to get Brandon Ghee, Rodderick Muckleroy, Dontay Moch, Ryan Finley, Mark Walton, Josh Malone, Josh Shaw, Marcus Hardison, Will Clarke, Sean Porter, Orson Charles, etc, etc, etc....

You could also draft what you think is a surefire kicker or punter on Day 2 and end up with a Roberto Aguayo.

It will be a sad day in Bengals history when Clark "Two Chicks at the Same Time" Harris retires.

(02-08-2022, 02:26 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I don't think Harris is planning to retire:

Welp I can tell you your wrong about at least one of those.

— Clark Harris (@ClarkHarris46) February 4, 2022

Good news, keep Clark Harris as long as he is at the top of his game. No one is better at what he does in the NFL.

Love the Fu Manchu.

I'm not worried about the draft at all . . . This team will have almost every hole filled by then through FA. It will probably be BPA for pretty much the entirety of the next few drafts. If they feel comfortable with applying pressure to Huber, do it. But he is very well loved.

(02-08-2022, 05:34 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The success rate on draft picks is amazing to look at as a whole for the NFL.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Notables from the numbers:


- If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.

- TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.

- You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.

- QBs seem to be first round or bust.

- O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.

- Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter.

- Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick. (Found this one to be very interesting.)

RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee.

I really don't like the criteria they have for success, as it doesn't have any basis in if they are actually good, just that they play. That gets even more faulty when you realize that draft position gives people more chance to start even if they don't deserve it and don't perform well with their chances.

Zach Wilson and Joe Burrow are both equally considered "successes" by that criteria so far.

Also by that criteria, Tyler Boyd is creeping towards being in danger of losing "success" status unless he starts more games, as he only started 8 in 2020 and 10 in 2021 (but still played 75%+ of the snaps in both years).... but Jeremy Hill is considered a successful 2nd round pick because he started 43 games in his 5 year career before being out of the league.

Mike Hilton is not a success, because he's a nickle CB who doesn't often get the start, but still plays 2/3rds of the snaps every single year.

Should be near were they start talking about Huber a bit after the Packers OT loss. They both love Huber, one was a fellow punter, the other was a team mate for a season. Around 4:45 if the link doesn't line you up right.

No way is a punter getting drafted before round 6.. I doubt this kid even gets drafted. Maybe in the last round. No one gives a **** about punters..

(02-08-2022, 09:39 PM)Tony Wrote: No way is a punter getting drafted before round 6.. I doubt this kid even gets drafted. Maybe in the last round. No one gives a **** about punters..

I'm not advocating drafting a punter. But Ray Guy was drafted in the first round and quite a few punters drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

When Bengals win the SB, would expect both to stay and try for a repeat and see how far this thing goes.