538's data driven analytics is fun, but they're wrong as much as they are right.

(02-11-2022, 03:59 PM)KillerGoose Wrote:  There are 1000+ plays for each team during a season and a wide variety of metrics to choose from to get your overall WP prediction, and this data is aggregated and used over the course of seasons.

I think this is the problem. I believe this sort of frequentist (or even Bayesian) approach is fundamentally flawed in that it is not (or is barely) data-structure-sensitive, and I believe the entire premise of a model needs to be adapted to one that is minimally- or non-parametric based upon relational structures within the data set not so reliant upon sample size. It's difficult to explain precisely what I mean without writing a dissertation, so oh well.

In any event, I don't think it's possible to accurately project an NFL team's "chance to win". I don't believe probabilities are even applicable.

(02-11-2022, 04:11 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I think this is the problem. I believe this sort of frequentist (or even Bayesian) approach is fundamentally flawed in that it is not (or is barely) data-structure-sensitive, and I believe the entire premise of a model needs to be adapted to one that is minimally- or non-parametric based upon relational structures within the data set not so reliant upon sample size. It's difficult to explain precisely what I mean without writing a dissertation, so oh well.

In any event, I don't think it's possible to accurately project an NFL team's "chance to win". I don't believe probabilities are even applicable.

I'd be interested in hearing what your ideas are. Theoretically, it could be a better approach given that the main issue with NFL analytics is that the sample size (I.E. season) is much more limited than other sports. Sabermetrics is pretty sharp, for instance, because the season is so damn long. The NFL only has 17 games, so it introduces a lot more variance. A team having a 33% chance of victory can still pull out that 33% even if they would theoretically lose a series, if it were a thing.

(02-11-2022, 04:05 PM)basballguy Wrote: 538's data driven analytics is fun, but they're wrong as much as they are right.

Good luck convincing people of that next year when we're favored in almost every game. 

(02-11-2022, 03:21 PM)Nately120 Wrote: These dumbasses probably gave us a 99% chance to beat the Jets.

Wow, do I laugh or cry at this?  

(02-11-2022, 04:24 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I'd be interested in hearing what your ideas are. Theoretically, it could be a better approach given that the main issue with NFL analytics is that the sample size (I.E. season) is much more limited than other sports. Sabermetrics is pretty sharp, for instance, because the season is so damn long. The NFL only has 17 games, so it introduces a lot more variance. A team having a 33% chance of victory can still pull out that 33% even if they would theoretically lose a series, if it were a thing.

Great points.  How do these algorithms account for variables such as injuries, home or away, weather.

(02-11-2022, 03:17 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: That isn't how that works. Just because a model says "XYZ team has 20% chance of winning" and then that team wins doesn't mean that it doesn't matter. It could just mean that the team hit on their 20%. I am not familiar with 538's model, so I have no idea how good it is. However, LA is a better team than Cincinnati. It isn't a crazy difference, but they are better and the Bengals being underdogs again is of no surprise. They definitely don't have a 50% chance of victory, though. 

Using the Vegas spread, Cincinnati has a 33% chance of victory. Just because it is unlikely doesn't mean that it is impossible. I'm sure if you played this game 100 times, the Rams would win the majority. Cincinnati only needs to win once, though, and they can. 

Who’s to say the Rams are better? More talented roster maybe, but better right now? Which team is PLAYING better right now? How does each teams rhythm factor in? What about confidence? What about nerves of each individual? What about their coaches schemes lately vs early in the season? What about players and coaches effort? What about extra time to prepare and heal? What about situational play calling right now for the last month vs the whole year? Teams are constantly evolving and growing. People are constantly growing and learning. Using a flawed model based on an already short season that can’t factor in all the nuances of the game is meaningless.

Must be a cakewalk getting paid to put meaningless percentages on games . I can do that too! Bengals have a 99% chance of winning vs Rams 1%. If Rams win I’m not wrong, my model isn’t wrong, the Rams just hit on that 1%

In the real world the bengals have a 50/50 shot no matter what a bunch of math nerds say. These percentages mean absolutely nothing. You don’t have to win 100,000 games/simulations. It’s one game. If they played 100,000 times in real life maybe the 32% would mean something and be remotely close. No way of knowing though so it doesn’t matter. It’s one game with two possible outcomes. Neither team gets to start with more points or more players on the field.

(02-11-2022, 04:28 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Good luck convincing people of that next year when we're favored in almost every game. 

I mean that kinda happens when your the SB Champ...



**Crap sorry spoiler alert***

When you over think stats lol

We have a 50% chance dude

(02-11-2022, 05:00 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: I mean that kinda happens when your the SB Champ...



**Crap sorry spoiler alert***

Who am I kidding?  We can win the next 4 super bowls and people are going to insist that the media hates us and everyone just wants to talk about the 4-13 Steelers.

"Don't ever tell me the odds." ----- Han Solo.

(02-11-2022, 02:26 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: What chance did they give us for beating KC? What chance to make the Super Bowl? None of that matters. Bengals keep winning against all the odds people throw out there. They have a 50% chance of winning the Super Bowl. One of only two teams with any chance.

Not positive, but I was thinking it was 64% KC and 36% Bengals.  But that could have been the Tennessee game, not KC.

(02-11-2022, 05:00 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Who’s to say the Rams are better? More talented roster maybe, but better right now? Which team is PLAYING better right now? How does each teams rhythm factor in? What about confidence? What about nerves of each individual? What about their coaches schemes lately vs early in the season? What about players and coaches effort? What about extra time to prepare and heal? What about situational play calling right now for the last month vs the whole year? Teams are constantly evolving and growing. People are constantly growing and learning. Using a flawed model based on an already short season that can’t factor in all the nuances of the game is meaningless.

Must be a cakewalk getting paid to put meaningless percentages on games . I can do that too! Bengals have a 99% chance of winning vs Rams 1%. If Rams win I’m not wrong, my model isn’t wrong, the Rams just hit on that 1%

In the real world the bengals have a 50/50 shot no matter what a bunch of math nerds say. These percentages mean absolutely nothing. You don’t have to win 100,000 games/simulations. It’s one game. If they played 100,000 times in real life maybe the 32% would mean something and be remotely close. No way of knowing though so it doesn’t matter. It’s one game with two possible outcomes. Neither team gets to start with more points or more players on the field.

I'm not sure if this is your intention, but these conversations always go down a road where it becomes condescending and it becomes rather frustrating. 

What says the Rams are better is their on-field performance - that's how you judge a team. Probably the top statistic used is EPA per play. You can derive a teams expected points scored by taking their field position and various other factors. It's an efficiency metric and is used to figure out which teams are using their limited resources (I.E. downs) better. You can use this to figure out who is better over the course of a season or within any given time frame. Various models may use various metrics, but EPA is the golden standard within the analytics community. All of the situations you mentioned can be accounted for in some way. There are programs that can watch game film and break down what coverage the defense is running and provide plays to counter it based on success rate, break down tendencies etc. 

I'm not sure what to say regarding this point. Again, that just isn't how it works. If you think it is easy and meaningless, I guess go work for an NFL team in their analytics department lol. In all seriousness, no NFL team is going to have a 99% chance of victory against another NFL team. Maybe if a team was favored by 20 points, I guess. Most WP models account for the Vegas spread, because it is fairly accurate. If a model is just consistently wrong, then the model is probably bad. However, if the model has a strong correlation to victories, then it is a good model (again, the Vegas spread is pretty good). 

And these conversations usually end up with something along the lines of "math nerd" or "data nerd" or some other variation of nerd thrown around. It isn't very creative. I'm not going to engage this part - you're pretty dug into your stance. So, one team will win this weekend and I hope it is Cincinnati. WHO-DEY! 

Did they use this system in the 2016 Presidential Election?

(02-11-2022, 03:40 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: i think at this point the odds are 50-50...


How many points did the rams score in their last superbowl?

I agree. I think this game could go either way. But I think the intangibles lift Cincy to the win.

(02-11-2022, 05:16 PM)Housh Wrote: When you over think stats lol

We have a 50% chance dude

Sorry, but that is not how it works.

If you were to race 100 meters against Usain Bolt you would not have a 50% chance of beating him.

(02-11-2022, 05:00 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Great points.  How do these algorithms account for variables such as injuries, home or away, weather.

So, the one that I am most familiar with (NFLFastR) was written in part by a buy named Ben Baldwin. Essentially, Ben and other statisticians have combed through NFL data and analyzed performances in various types of environments - snow, rain, sunshine, domes and everything else not included here. You can figure out performance trends and how the weather affects those performance trends across large datasets. For instance, say you have 2000 games; 1000 of those games are in sunshine and the teams average 25 points per game and the other 1000 games are snow and teams average 17 points per game. You have a fairly clear indicator that snow is a detriment to offensive performance. This is a super simple example and isn't exactly how they go about analyzing this stuff, but it gives an idea. From there, functions are built that can account for weather and modify whatever metrics you are looking at.

The same example goes for home/away. Analyzing performances between the two in large datasets and gathering more useful data to be used in calculations. Injuries can be a little more difficult, because you are wanting to know the impact of a particular player and how his absence will affect the group. In basketball and baseball, this is easier to define because the impact of one single player is very well known. In the NFL, it is SIGNIFICANTLY harder. For instance, how do you judge the impact of Jonah Williams and how a replacement player would perform in his absence? It's really tough. The best way that I know of is just to compare datasets of performance metrics before and after a player is injured, but you run into a bunch of noise like opponents played, further injuries, weather etc. There probably isn't a good way to account for injury, at least not that I know of. 

(02-11-2022, 04:02 PM)Goalpost Wrote: There are a lot off human factors that a computer or model can't gage.  Composure.  Preparation.  Execution.  I could go on and on.

BINGO!!!  Computers model can't measure what's deep inside of a man.

(02-11-2022, 05:44 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If you were to race 100 meters against Usain Bolt you would not have a 50% chance of beating him.

This gets at the core of the philosophical divide.

Do you have a 0.000000000001% chance to beat Usain Bolt, or a flat 0% chance? Is it even logical to discuss this matter in terms of probabilities in the first place? Is it falsifiable if we do?

(02-11-2022, 05:00 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Who’s to say the Rams are better? More talented roster maybe, but better right now? Which team is PLAYING better right now? How does each teams rhythm factor in? What about confidence? What about nerves of each individual? What about their coaches schemes lately vs early in the season? What about players and coaches effort? What about extra time to prepare and heal? What about situational play calling right now for the last month vs the whole year? Teams are constantly evolving and growing. People are constantly growing and learning. Using a flawed model based on an already short season that can’t factor in all the nuances of the game is meaningless.

Must be a cakewalk getting paid to put meaningless percentages on games . I can do that too! Bengals have a 99% chance of winning vs Rams 1%. If Rams win I’m not wrong, my model isn’t wrong, the Rams just hit on that 1%

In the real world the bengals have a 50/50 shot no matter what a bunch of math nerds say. These percentages mean absolutely nothing. You don’t have to win 100,000 games/simulations. It’s one game. If they played 100,000 times in real life maybe the 32% would mean something and be remotely close. No way of knowing though so it doesn’t matter. It’s one game with two possible outcomes. Neither team gets to start with more points or more players on the field.

Hey now, I'm one of those math nerds(turds).   lol