(03-08-2022, 12:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: There is absolutely no way the Bengals would guarantee $50 mill.
Simmons, who signed a 4-year, $61 mill deal about this time last year, only received $35 mill in guaranteed money.

I'd guess the Bengals would offer $20-30 mill guaranteed.

the 50 is a bit of a overstatement I like Bates in coverage better than Simmons

(03-08-2022, 12:49 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: the 50 is a bit of a overstatement I like Bates in coverage better than Simmons

Fair, but the Bengals are also notorious for not giving guaranteed money. Instead, they take the higher cap hit earlier in the contract and (try to) sell FAs that the higher cap hits are essentially guaranteed money because they won't let go of a player early in their contract.

(03-08-2022, 12:41 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: We made this mistake with Steinbach Zeitler even Marvin Jones

I was a big fan of Eric Steinbach, but we did not make a mistake with him.

He got more than he was worth from the browns.

I feel Bates is the newer version of Justin Smith. I was wrong on Smith at the time

(03-08-2022, 01:00 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: I feel Bates is the newer version of Justin Smith. I was wrong on Smith at the time

Bates is a good player overall. He was elite in the playoffs. At times during the regular season, he was probably above average. 

At the career level, he's had 1 season where he was elite and several where he was above average to good.

I think that's the tough thing. Do you pay him at the elite player level? Or do you pay him at the Good player level?

(03-08-2022, 01:17 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Bates is a good player overall. He was elite in the playoffs. At times during the regular season, he was probably above average. 

At the career level, he's had 1 season where he was elite and several where he was above average to good.

I think that's the tough thing. Do you pay him at the elite player level? Or do you pay him at the Good player level?

Imo, you only pay a player at the elite level if they're consistently elite. Bates is more often average to solid than he is elite.

To me, consistency is part of excellence. Basically, I don't think Bates has been elite overall, so I wouldn't pay him as such. Tag him, try to work out a fair deal, and if we can't get that done before the draft, look for a safety in the first 3 rounds.

(03-08-2022, 01:17 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: Bates is a good player overall. He was elite in the playoffs. At times during the regular season, he was probably above average. 

At the career level, he's had 1 season where he was elite and several where he was above average to good.

I think that's the tough thing. Do you pay him at the elite player level? Or do you pay him at the Good player level?

You have to compare him to peers like Budda Baker and Jamal Adams.
I had already posted in another thread that he's right there with Baker and Adams from a production standpoint.
He's closer to Baker than Adams because Adams plays closer to the LOS, so he gets more tackles and TFLs but less PDs and INTs.

Given Baker got paid $14.75 mill APY and Adams got $17.5 mill APY, it's very reasonable to think Bates deserves a contract at least what Baker got.

Tough to compare Bates to Baker or Adams.

Baker is a 3 time All-Pro (2x 1st team) with 4 Pro Bowl nods.
Bates is a 1 time All-Pro (0x 1st team) with 0 Pro Bowl nods.

Accolades play heavily into contract negotiations and leverage.

Then Jamal Adams got his payday based on 2 things:

1. Consistently playing at an elite level with the Jets.

2. The Seahawks traded a pair of 1st round picks for him and would look stupid if they didn't extend him. They probably wish they had a mulligan on that one, tbh.

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Between the 3, the 2 lowest PFF grades of the last 4 years both belong to Bates (56.2 last year and 61.2 in 2019)...and again, if the Seahawks could take back the Adams deal, I bet they would.

His grades over the last 2 years have been 60.1 and 64.2. Far below how he performed with the Jets.

(03-08-2022, 12:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: There is absolutely no way the Bengals would guarantee $50 mill.
Simmons, who signed a 4-year, $61 mill deal about this time last year, only received $35 mill in guaranteed money.

I'd guess the Bengals would offer $20-30 mill guaranteed.

Theoretically they could offer him 50 gtd. If we franchise him 3 times, it’s 3 years 51m.

Something like a 5 year 75-80m with 50m gtd could appease both parties.

(03-07-2022, 11:10 PM)bfine32 Wrote: It can help to sign another player long term. JB is not counting against our cap beyond this season.

It does limit our ability to sign players to 1-year contracts, but it does make it easier to sign FAs to long term deals. 

Which is what we need to do anyways. Need to sign a couple younger top tier OL to long term deals.

Ownership is going to work the contracts as well as they can. It is hard to keep a Super Bowl team together. Everybody wants raises after a Super Bowl. However the team is more willing to keep players than after lousy seasons when they need to blow it up and start over.

Bates is around 24 years old and still as young as some in the 2022 Draft. Let us not over look his youth. He is VERY good for his age. Going into last season, Sporting News and most media ranked Bates as one of the top young Safeties in the NFL. Mind you, this was ranking of very young Safeties, not old veterans. So Bates is ranked as Great for Age 24.

Bates young age is important because Burrow and Chase and so many are young. This is not an old team ready to fall apart, the Bengals are a good young and up and coming team. That they made it to the Super Bowl so fast was kind of a surprise. This comes into play when some fans talk of adding old players like Gronk, and I don't see that happening. Ownerships main focus is going to be working the contracts to keep their good young players The Bengals are not Tampa or Rams who went with old Vets in hopes on one good year. The Bengals are building with mostly youth, as Paul Brown was all about.

So as people talk about how many millions on contracts. I'm sure Bengals are going over the contracts non stop and looking years ahead in ways most fans are not. If it were Chess, Bengals owners are 5 or 6 moves ahead of the Fans and they have to be. Ownership has to be looking years ahead to other players they intend to keep. Certainly Burrow and Chase look to be here a while and how much will that combo end up costing in future.

We could go crazy trying to figure out Bengals contracts in future. Bengals did Franchise Tag the good YOUNG DB in Bates. I think they would like to work out a deal before the season starts to keep him longer because he is so young and good. Depends on how much his agent is demanding. This is why I don't see old high priced dudes like Gronk brought in, because Bengals Owners have their hands full keeping the good Super Bowl players they have and keeping this team together. Of course Bengals will be active in Free Agency, but maybe not as much as some think. Bengals were pretty active last few years in Rebuild, but they may not as active after a Super Bowl.

I can see one thing about Bengals contracts. For most part the Bengals under Coach Taylor dumped about every Coach Lewis Draft Pick and Player. Most did not fit the New System. It is a long list from Dalton to Green and all the Top Picks in Lewis last years that never panned out. Top pick WR's, CB's, Center, Tackle, all dumped and gone. Coach Taylor is finally pretty much out from under most Marvin Lewis Picks contracts they wanted off the team. Getting rid of Price closed the door on the elimination of Marvin's Top Pick contracts. It is very easy to see the first order of business in The Who Dey, New Day Rebuild was to dump Marvin Lewis player contracts the first 3 off seasons.

Now this off season, is the first off season with no Marvin players of great need to eliminate. This off season will be more about trying to keep as much of this Super Bowl team together. I'm sure there are Bengals Free Agents they want to resign in Free Agency. Again, Bengals are looking more years down the road on contracts than Fans are. They sure did use the Franchise Tag on Bates fast on the first day he could be tagged, not the last The Bengals have a plan and it is working, since team made The Super Bowl. Rams got there like Tampa by going all in on old veterans, but the window will close fast on both those teams. Bengals got to Super Bowl on mostly youth, and Bengals window of opportunity is set for a possible Dynasty Team in 2020's Decade.

Bengals moved on Bates tag fast. Bengals have their contract plans laid out more than Fans know. Bengals dumping most of the Marvin Lewis picks and players opened up the money vault to field a Super Bowl team. The Who Dey, New Day is working. GO BENGALS....I'll add that these teams that change Head Coach almost every year like Cleveland, never will have a system. You have to hire a coach for at least 3 or 4 years to dump the other coaches players and bring in his own players to fit that coaches system. Team that make Fans happy by firing their coach every year, can never Win or form a Winning System. It is on this that a Team has to NOT listen to the Fans, and give a new coach enough years to develop his team. Cleveland is just one of the teams that fires the head coach almost every year, and that can never Win. Jacksonville remains a mess. Bengals did it right giving Coach Taylor Who Dey, New Day a few years to change players. This is how they knew to tag Bates so fast. Bengals Super Bowl system is in place.