(03-24-2022, 11:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon is more than a "2 down RB".  He had as many third down carries as all the other RBs combined.  He also had 6 receptions on third down converting 4 of them into first downs.






Not behind the lines Mixon has had.

Sure wish he was in on the last play of SB when Perine watched the ball fall in front of him with no effort to catch

I've been wanting the Bengals to bring in a #2 back all off season instead of drafting one if at all possible. Perine is past the the point of showing me that he can be that guy. And Evans hasn't shown nearly enough to be that guy either.

Here's a couple of things on Mixon though on why I think we need a capable backup. In my opinion, it isn't just about his usage for wear and tear as he just had his career year in five seasons. I think they can still get his level of production at least for one more season and probably two, especially with a better line. But based on his contract, he arguably can be released after 2023 season, where there will be a $2.75 mil dead cap hit for the 2024 season, his last year on contract. I can not see the Bengals giving him a new contract either, nor probably should. They need to be thinking about replacing him as early as the 2024 season depending on how things go as he will have $13.1 cap hit but $2.75 dead cap as noted above.

This can most likely mean drafting the future starter in the 2023 draft or at the latest 2024 draft, because Burrow will be getting a new contract along with Chase at some point around there. Having a capable backup in place to me is just being smart preparing for the future with a rookie. But also equally smart just in case Mixon gets nicked up and might have to miss some time.

Please note this not an anti-Mixon post by any means. It's about preparing for the near future when Mixon has 3 more seasons left on his contract, with a very team friendly contract in place if the Bengals choose to release him with a season to go. I like Mixon and all, but these next two to three seasons can arguably be the end of his 'prime' playing days as the shelf life of RBs at a high level are probably the shortest of any position.

My biggest criticism of Taylor (way before the Super Bowl) was the splits between he and Perine. Mixon should've gotten more 3rd down snaps and more of his rest should've come on early downs; almost opposite of what was done. It's not like Perine was an amazing blocker, and he certainly is less explosive when thown to. Mixon also is a better receiver. It also appeared almost too predictable to thrash Mixon against the rocks and then bring Perine in when we wanted to pass on 3rd downs.

I would love to take some load off Mixon. But we don’t really need to. Running backs prime usually last less than 5 years so I’m all for running Mixon into the ground while he’s still able to do it. No use giving carries to a guy who isn’t as good when Mixon is probably gonna break down around 28-30 anyway. Get as much run out of him as we can.

Honest question, why did this become a sticky over other topics? I don't ask to be contentious, but rather out of curiosity. 

(03-24-2022, 11:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Mixon had 77% of the RB carries in 2021. If you look at both carries and receptions, Mixon was at 72% of the RB touches in 2021. So he's already almost right where you wanted him.

My concern with Mixon is more how actually valuable is he to the team if he can't be on the field for both 3rd down and during 2 minute drills? That's when you really need to win a game. In the Super Bowl, the last time Mixon touched the ball was with 6:55 left in the game. 1:25 left in the game, need to drive for a FG to tie, and I don't think he ever saw the field.

You can find other (cheaper) 2 down RBs to run for 4.1 YPC for you.

Also there's not much point in being overly cautious with a RB workload. There's overwhelming odds that he'll fall off quickly. So use them while their talent is still there and then replace them.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-breaking-down-fact-and-fiction-about-how-and-when-nfl-running-backs-begin-to-regress-2021

Lol I knew someone would take the generic numbers I obviously made up, look up the actual numbers and try to use them to prove me "wrong".

Whatever the usage number actually was, just take that and lower it a bit. So it's 77%? Lower it to 65%. Eventually I'll want to trim Mixon's contract from the team as RB is one position where I think we should conserve money in the future.

But for now, Mixon is a big part of the team, and you want to keep him healthy for the duration of these longer seasons.

We need to run the hell out of Mixon. He very well could be a Cap casualty next year and definitely will be in 2024.  Let's use him while we got him.

Good news, the Oline should be very improved, so hopefully Mixons Carrie’s get him to the 2nd and 3rd level more frequently where he is less likely to get clobber stomped by D linemen.

Then you just have to worry about non contact injuries mostly.

Mixon should play well with this new line.

(03-25-2022, 03:57 PM)bfine32 Wrote: We need to run the hell out of Mixon. He very well could be a Cap casualty next year and definitely will be in 2024.  Let's use him while we got him.

I think the people worrying about Mixon's health aren't thinking long term anyway.

We're thinking about this season. In the playoffs? Sure, run him til the wheels fall off.

But we have to make sure he gets there.

(03-25-2022, 03:57 PM)bfine32 Wrote: We need to run the hell out of Mixon. He very well could be a Cap casualty next year and definitely will be in 2024.  Let's use him while we got him.

With the OL being much improved I think Evans might surprise some folks if they will give him some carries. I have no problem taking a RB relatively high and getting Mixon's replacement. I would love Breece Hall.

(03-25-2022, 03:27 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Lol I knew someone would take the generic numbers I obviously made up, look up the actual numbers and try to use them to prove me "wrong".

Whatever the usage number actually was, just take that and lower it a bit. So it's 77%? Lower it to 65%. Eventually I'll want to trim Mixon's contract from the team as RB is one position where I think we should conserve money in the future.

But for now, Mixon is a big part of the team, and you want to keep him healthy for the duration of these longer seasons.

If you are going to eventually trim his contract from the team, isn't that all the more reason to use him while you can? He is either going to get hurt or won't. I don't think load management of 10% one way or the other will make much difference other than the difference of having a lesser player carrying the ball on the field more often making the offense worse.

I saw your mention of playoffs, but they have to win games to get there first. The AFCN was probably the easiest it will ever be last year and the Bengals won the division by 1/2 of a game. Even if they played and won Week 18, it wouldn't have been a large comfortable margin of victory to the point where the Bengals could sandbag a bit while thinking about the playoffs in advance. (That's not to say I don't think the Bengals win the division, I do, I just don't think they can do it while letting worrying about the playoffs keep them from doing their best to win regular season games.)

(03-25-2022, 12:13 AM)fredtoast Wrote: he was a sixth rounder because he lacked top end speed and did not have a lot of moves to make players miss.  But he had great balance and ran very strong for his size.  He could plant and cut on a dime to hit a hole.  He could catch and even block.

Surprised Trayveon hasn't impressed me at all in the NFL.

Just goes like that sometimes I guess, college isn't the NFL by any means. Everybody is good, so you got to be great.

(03-25-2022, 10:20 AM)Millhouse Wrote: I've been wanting the Bengals to bring in a #2 back all off season instead of drafting one if at all possible. Perine is past the the point of showing me that he can be that guy. And Evans hasn't shown nearly enough to be that guy either.

Here's a couple of things on Mixon though on why I think we need a capable backup. In my opinion, it isn't just about his usage for wear and tear as he just had his career year in five seasons. I think they can still get his level of production at least for one more season and probably two, especially with a better line. But based on his contract, he arguably can be released after 2023 season, where there will be a $2.75 mil dead cap hit for the 2024 season, his last year on contract. I can not see the Bengals giving him a new contract either, nor probably should. They need to be thinking about replacing him as early as the 2024 season depending on how things go as he will have $13.1 cap hit but $2.75 dead cap as noted above.

This can most likely mean drafting the future starter in the 2023 draft or at the latest 2024 draft, because Burrow will be getting a new contract along with Chase at some point around there. Having a capable backup in place to me is just being smart preparing for the future with a rookie. But also equally smart just in case Mixon gets nicked up and might have to miss some time.

Please note this not an anti-Mixon post by any means. It's about preparing for the near future when Mixon has 3 more seasons left on his contract, with a very team friendly contract in place if the Bengals choose to release him with a season to go. I like Mixon and all, but these next two to three seasons can arguably be the end of his 'prime' playing days as the shelf life of RBs at a high level are probably the shortest of any position.

Definitely understand all of this Millhouse. Nice post, need to prepare for the future at RB no question.

(03-25-2022, 09:20 AM)Go Cards Wrote: Sure wish he was in on the last play of SB when Perine watched the ball fall in front of him with no effort to catch

The ball was not even close enough for him to get a hand on.

I think I agree on running Mixon hard this year, if indeed the line was most of his problems, RBs don't last as long in this league as other positions, we should try to win with him next year if running him hard means we're back in the SB.