(05-11-2022, 03:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 2021 Bengals played the NFC North which was the only division in the entire league that only had one winning team.

2018 Texans played a higher percentage of their games against teams with winning records (7 of 16) than the 2021 Bengals (7 of 17).

Anything you try to say about Watson winning a "weak division" applies to Burrow and the 2021 AFC North.


Let me remind everyone that when this discussion began the first thing I said was that i would take Burrow over Watson.  I was just addressing my comments to the people here who claim Watson is not even close to Burrow.

I'm not arguing with you fred, because I have to much experience with your lawyer-ese.  You ignore every actual point I make, pull one of your own out of the hat and declare yourself the winner.  Typical and unsurprising.

The AFC South has been one of the continuously weakest divisions for a decade in the global opinion of the NFL, whether you like it or not.

However, I will agree that I would NOT use that as a measure of Watson vs. Burrow.  I think Joe is ahead of him now vs. when Watson last played.  However, 1.5 years of rust, no incentive to win beyond pride, more pending civil litigation and suspensions, I think are going to render Watson comparison moot.  Watson will be stained, but he'll get the last laugh because all his money is guaranteed.

(05-11-2022, 07:44 PM)Stewy Wrote: I'm not arguing with you fred, because I have to much experience with your lawyer-ese.  You ignore every actual point I make, pull one of your own out of the hat and declare yourself the winner.  Typical and unsurprising.

The AFC South has been one of the continuously weakest divisions for a decade in the global opinion of the NFL, whether you like it or not.

However, I will agree that I would NOT use that as a measure of Watson vs. Burrow.  I think Joe is ahead of him now vs. when Watson last played.  However, 1.5 years of rust, no incentive to win beyond pride, more pending civil litigation and suspensions, I think are going to render Watson comparison moot.  Watson will be stained, but he'll get the last laugh because all his money is guaranteed.

And that’s literally all I was saying. Nothing about Watson himself as a QB.

(05-11-2022, 08:55 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: And that’s literally all I was saying. Nothing about Watson himself as a QB.

I just got back from a work trip and I have my computer available. I wanted to put numbers to this to have a more objective way of measuring this. I'm using the SRS metric that PFR tracks, which assigns teams a rating by their margin of victory and SOS. I gathered data from 2017-2020 and averaged it out to find where each division ranked based on an average of their team ratings.

The AFC South is #6 since 2017. This puts them in the 25th percentile, which I think objectively classifies as one of the worst. They have had strong playoff performances, so that would be the only point of contention that someone could bring in. For curious minds, the two divisions to rank as worse than the AFCS since 2017 is the NFCE and the AFCE. The AFCN is #4. 

Saints and Panthers fans were probably reassuring themselves that Tom Brady came from a weak division... I'm kidding. Anyway... All of this talk of the AFC south is irrelevant now. All I know is that Watson's arrival had probably pushed the north up to number 1. If that didn't do it, Russell Wilson's trade to Denver put the west on top.

(05-11-2022, 03:15 PM)MTBengalsFan Wrote: It's not a valid argument about a division's strength based on how many wildcard teams make it. AFCW is going to be a battle this year, for example. It's going to be rough for any team to sweep the other there, which  almost guarantees 3 losses.

True. Every year it is different. This year the AFCW is by far the best with all they have done in FA and in the Draft barring injuries.

Kind of good for us as I think we sweep at the very least the Steelers this season and will be looking for revenge on the Browns.

(05-11-2022, 07:44 PM)Stewy Wrote: I'm not arguing with you fred, because I have to much experience with your lawyer-ese.  You ignore every actual point I make, pull one of your own out of the hat and declare yourself the winner.  Typical and unsurprising.

The AFC South has been one of the continuously weakest divisions for a decade in the global opinion of the NFL, whether you like it or not.

However, I will agree that I would NOT use that as a measure of Watson vs. Burrow.  I think Joe is ahead of him now vs. when Watson last played.  However, 1.5 years of rust, no incentive to win beyond pride, more pending civil litigation and suspensions, I think are going to render Watson comparison moot.  Watson will be stained, but he'll get the last laugh because all his money is guaranteed.

I'm one of, if not the biggest Clemson homer on this board and even I will point black say Burrow is ahead of Watson in any ranking at this point.

And honestly, with the way the Browns offense is more run first vs past first, even if Watson gets back to his prime shape, I don't think he'll put up the type of numbers Burrow will.

Tough schedule in and out of the division but this is special and will play well enough to win the division for a second straight year. Very excited for the season and my first trip to PBS.

(05-11-2022, 10:54 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I'm one of, if not the biggest Clemson homer on this board and even I will point black say Burrow is ahead of Watson in any ranking at this point.

And honestly, with the way the Browns offense is more run first vs past first, even if Watson gets back to his prime shape, I don't think he'll put up the type of numbers Burrow will.

Agree with both you and Stewy no surprise.

Watson is a good player and can pass out of the pocket better than Lamar can, but he isn't as good of a runner as Lamar and
has a lot of problems right now and could have more in the future. Burrow is all about ball as he says and could be the next 
great QB after Brady and company. Joe Burrow has it all and strides to be the greatest of all time.

I do expect us to lean on our running game cause it will be pretty dang dangerous with the OL we brought in but Joe will get 
his and more so than Deshaun with his weapons as long as we stay relatively healthy.

(05-11-2022, 07:44 PM)Stewy Wrote: The AFC South has been one of the continuously weakest divisions for a decade in the global opinion of the NFL.

1.  I don't care about an entire decade.  We were just talking about the two seasons Watson won the division.

2.  I don't care about "global opinion" when it does not match the facts.

(05-11-2022, 09:20 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I just got back from a work trip and I have my computer available. I wanted to put numbers to this to have a more objective way of measuring this. I'm using the SRS metric that PFR tracks, which assigns teams a rating by their margin of victory and SOS. I gathered data from 2017-2020 and averaged it out to find where each division ranked based on an average of their team ratings.

The AFC South is #6 since 2017. This puts them in the 25th percentile, which I think objectively classifies as one of the worst. They have had strong playoff performances, so that would be the only point of contention that someone could bring in. For curious minds, the two divisions to rank as worse than the AFCS since 2017 is the NFCE and the AFCE. The AFCN is #4. 

(05-11-2022, 11:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: 1.  I don't care about an entire decade.  We were just talking about the two seasons Watson won the division.

2.  I don't care about "global opinion" when it does not match the facts.

The facts are right there ^

(05-12-2022, 12:10 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: The facts are right there ^

Again, I am not talking about "since 2017".  I am talking about the two season that Watson won the Division ('18-'19).

And BTW 6th out of 8 is not in the 25th percentile.  That would be #7 and #8.

I like the Bengals winning the division at 12-5.

(05-12-2022, 02:16 AM)fredtoast Wrote: And BTW 6th out of 8 is not in the 25th percentile.  That would be #7 and #8.

I believe this is correct but strangely it isn’t what the math gives you. The formula for calculating percentile is…

=(number of values worse than X / Total number of values) x 100

The calculation for this works out to be…

= (2/8) x 100

This will get you to the 25th percentile. It might be a case of the dataset being too small with only eight values. Thinking back on it, it should be the 37th percentile.

I feel like some of these threads are failing to see the forest through the trees and nitpicking a bit.

Love him or hate him …Watson is a beast.
With him leading the Browns now vs Baker; the Browns are inarguably more of a threat.
An already dangerous Chubb’s numbers will also improve now as well as teams are forced to defend against a legit QB now.

I don’t see how the Browns are not at the very least, moderately better.

We got embarrassed, at home, by a Baker-lead Browns team who was already dealing with some COVID issues (I think, can’t recall).

We improved for sure ….but so did the Browns…. and the Ravens (a lot)…..and heck, the Steelers did too.

This division will no doubt be a dog fight and this will be one incredibly fun year of football!

The division may be the only route to the playoffs and you can mark it down on 5/15/22. We have to get this division!
Don't focus on the schedule we need the division chico!!

(05-15-2022, 02:38 AM)Emeritus Wrote:

The division may be the only route to the playoffs and you can mark it down on 5/15/22. We have to get this division!
Don't focus on the schedule we need the division chico!!

And your head coach Zac Taylor says that constantly

(05-12-2022, 07:41 AM)Whacked Wrote: I feel like some of these threads are failing to see the forest through the trees and nitpicking a bit.

Love him or hate him …Watson is a beast.
With him leading the Browns now vs Baker; the Browns are inarguably more of a threat.
An already dangerous Chubb’s numbers will also improve now as well as teams are forced to defend against a legit QB now.

I don’t see how the Browns are not at the very least, moderately better.

We got embarrassed, at home, by a Baker-lead Browns team who was already dealing with some COVID issues (I think, can’t recall).

We improved for sure ….but so did the Browns…. and the Ravens (a lot)…..and heck, the Steelers did too.

This division will no doubt be a dog fight and this will be one incredibly fun year of football!

The Browns also lost OBJ and Landry, so while they improved at QB, they declined at WR.

The Bengals won it last year and have made significant improvements. I see the Bengals having a top 5 offense and top 15 defense and winning the AFC North.

I think Baltimore finishes 2nd

And just as I said last year when people were picking them to possible be a Super Bowl contender.... Browns are gonna Brown.

I could be wrong, but i have a feeling the way Cleveland played the deal with Mayfield showed extreme disrespect for a guy who really put in on the line for them. They turn around and give out the biggest guaranteed contract ever to a bum..A talented bum, but a bum none the less. I think it'll leave a bit of resentment among a lot of players for them and their season goes down in flames.. 
All in all, Here's to the Stains shooting themselves in the nuts..