(07-25-2022, 10:03 AM)ochocincos Wrote: 1) What was the guaranteed money offered? If it was low, then it's not a good contract by ALL indications.
2) After seeing what some of these other safeties get paid really well but arguably worse than Bates (Marcus Williams), I think someone would give Bates the contract he's seeking. It might even be less in terms of years and/or total salary but higher guarantees than what the Bengals were willing to give.

The GTD money was trash. Only 17m (when he will make almost all of that GTD on a one year franchise tag!)

13m GTD on one year

Or

16m/year for 4 years but only 17m GTD

It was a decent annual value, but the bengals missed big.

(07-25-2022, 10:17 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: The GTD money was trash.  Only 17m (when he will make almost all of that GTD on a one year franchise tag!)

13m GTD on one year

Or

16m/year for 4 years but only 17m GTD

It was a decent annual value, but the bengals missed big.

Meanwhile, Marcus Williams got $32 mill guaranteed from Ravens, who weren't even the team he played with.
Only $14 mill APY but that $32 mill guaranteed was probably a big reason for taking.

(07-25-2022, 10:03 AM)ochocincos Wrote: 2) After seeing what some of these other safeties get paid really well but arguably worse than Bates (Marcus Williams), I think someone would give Bates the contract he's seeking. It might even be less in terms of years and/or total salary but higher guarantees than what the Bengals were willing to give.

I know PFF isn't gospel, and I agree, but it's at least an interesting reference point.

Marcus Williams
2021: 80.1
2020: 79.3
2019: 86.5
2018: 74.0
2017: 88.3

Bates at his best is better than Williams, but there's nowhere near the consistency. I'll take a guy who can give you an 8/10 every single year over a guy who will sandwich a 9/10 with a 5/10 and a 6/10.

Someone WILL pay Bates serious money, I agree, but that doesn't mean it'll be a good move and there's a good chance we end up laughing at them a year or two later.

(07-25-2022, 10:17 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: The GTD money was trash.  Only 17m (when he will make almost all of that GTD on a one year franchise tag!)

13m GTD on one year

Or

16m/year for 4 years but only 17m GTD

It was a decent annual value, but the bengals missed big.

That is the spin from Bates side. The fact is that the first year salary is virtually guaranteed. So you can't really compare it to the franchise tag contract.

The $17 million guaranteed was right in line with what we gave Hendrickson, Reader, Boyd, and Wayne's. It did not "miss big". Pretty sure it would be top 5 for safeties. 

Bengals are not cheap with guaranteed money. If that were true we would not have been so successful in free agency recently.

(07-25-2022, 10:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: That is the spin from Bates side. The fact is that the first year salary is virtually guaranteed. So you can't really compare it to the franchise tag contract.

The $17 million guaranteed was right in line with what we gave Hendrickson, Reader, Boyd, and Wayne's. It did not "miss big". Pretty sure it would be top 5 for safeties. 

Bengals are not cheap with guaranteed money. If that were true we would not have been so successful in free agency recently.

Guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Buddah Baker, and Jamal Adams are making over 30M in guaranteed money. Jamal Adams makes 38M in guaranteed money. 

You don't think Bates looks at that and thinks he shouldn't be getting or can't get more than 17M in guaranteed dollars in free agency? The Jaguars just gave Christian Kirk around 40M in guaranteed money for Pete's sake. You could argue he's not even a top 30 guy at his position.

There are either two things happening here - the Bengals don't want to pay that much in guaranteed money (even though they think Bates is worth it) or they don't think Bates' play on the field justifies that much guaranteed money. 

I am not sure which one it is, but I think it could be a combination of both. Bates could have helped himself immensely by having a good season last year. He doesn't really have anyone to blame for the situation other than himself. 

Sounds like he is betting on himself this year to have a bounce back season and get more guaranteed dollars. Honestly, if he just has even an average/above average season he will end up getting around 30M guaranteed from someone. 

(07-25-2022, 10:22 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I know PFF isn't gospel, and I agree, but it's at least an interesting reference point.

Marcus Williams
2021: 80.1
2020: 79.3
2019: 86.5
2018: 74.0
2017: 88.3

Bates at his best is better than Williams, but there's nowhere near the consistency. I'll take a guy who can give you an 8/10 every single year over a guy who will sandwich a 9/10 with a 5/10 and a 6/10.

Someone WILL pay Bates serious money, I agree, but that doesn't mean it'll be a good move and there's a good chance we end up laughing at them a year or two later.

And here are their stats in the regular season the past 4 years:
Bates - 63 games, 10 INTs, 35 PDs, 2 FFs, 408 tackles
Williams - 61 games, 11 INTs, 31 PDs, 3 FFs, 247 tackles

Bates (and/or his agent) will (justifiably) argue that he's been more productive through 2018-2021 than Marcus Williams, so he deserves about the same contract, if not higher.

I get your point about PFF ratings, but stats matter too. Bates has more statistical production.

(07-25-2022, 10:46 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick, Buddah Baker, and Jamal Adams are making over 30M in guaranteed money. Jamal Adams makes 38M in guaranteed money. 

You don't think Bates looks at that and thinks he shouldn't be getting or can't get more than 17M in guaranteed dollars in free agency? The Jaguars just gave Christian Kirk around 40M in guaranteed money for Pete's sake. You could argue he's not even a top 30 guy at his position.

$17 million would be top 10 for safeties.  Maybe Bates is worth more than that but not a lot.

But what does it say about a player whose position is "I don't care about how much the total contract is worth.  All I care about is how much I can get if I suck so bad you want to cut me."

(07-25-2022, 11:00 AM)fredtoast Wrote: $17 million would be top 10 for safeties.  Maybe Bates is worth more than that but not a lot.

But what does it say about a player whose position is "I don't care about how much the total contract is worth.  All I care about is how much I can get if I suck so bad you want to cut me."

I think what the Bengals offered Bates is fair for his level of play last year. If we are looking at 2020 play where he was considered a top safety in the league, I think its a lowball. That's what makes his situation so harry, what player are the Bengals actually paying for? 

I think the Bengals are doing the right thing. Tag him, use another year to evaluate him...and either tag him again and offer him an increased offer or cut bate with him if he still isn't playing up to the contract he wants or you simply don't want to pay him that much.

It is a business deal. It is over for a contract between Bengals and Bates in 2022.

So I hope Bates is smart enough to look forward, being bitter and not giving 100% again (he said he did it in 2021) would not be a good look for Bates for his future with any team.

He walked away from 17 million guaranteed minimum (his side), but a lot more if he stays healthy. Bates put himself at risk, he gets hurt seriously and his 2023 contract goes backwards in a hurry.

Bates big mistake was not giving his all in 2021, that will be on his resume forever.

Bates (and his agent) has put himself into a lose-lose scenario. Report to camp late (or not at all), and he’s labeled a problem child. Sit out the season (as he’s threatened) and that compounds the problem, plus, he loses $13M (which will be hard to make up).

Show’s up for the season distracted (like last year) and he hurts himself further.

The only good part of this scenario for him, sign the tender, get paid $13M. Ball out. Get signed (by someone) to an extension and hope it was worth all the drama. Outside of that, he has no leverage.

(07-26-2022, 01:26 PM)Graphicguy Wrote: Bates (and his agent) has put himself into a lose-lose scenario.  Report to camp late (or not at all), and he’s labeled a problem child.  Sit out the season (as he’s threatened) and that compounds the problem, plus, he loses $13M (which will be hard to make up).

Show’s up for the season distracted (like last year) and he hurts himself further.

The only good part of this scenario for him, sign the tender, get paid $13M.  Ball out.  Get signed (by someone) to an extension and hope it was worth all the drama.  Outside of that, he has no leverage.

See bold:  At this point, only by the fans and media.  

His teammates expect him to show up and play.  Until that time he is not a distraction to them.  
The FO, knows what this is business and won't label him as long as he shows up and plays.

As you say, however, if he sits out the season or plays distracted then it's a problem for everyone and he's only hurting himself.

Up to this point however, the only thing getting hurt are certain fans feelings.

(07-25-2022, 11:00 AM)fredtoast Wrote: $17 million would be top 10 for safeties.  Maybe Bates is worth more than that but not a lot.

But what does it say about a player whose position is "I don't care about how much the total contract is worth.  All I care about is how much I can get if I suck so bad you want to cut me."

Well, I think they worry about being injured more and not seeing the end of the contract.

Career ending injuries don't seem as common now. But, they used to happen more frequently.

With Bates, I could see the Bengals cutting him in year 3 or 4 as they try to figure out how to keep Burrow, Chase, Higgins, etc.

And for the Bengals, they don't want to pay him heavily guaranteed, because he's inconsistent. If he puts up 2 years of average safety play, he's overpaid.

(07-26-2022, 01:26 PM)Graphicguy Wrote: Bates (and his agent) has put himself into a lose-lose scenario.  Report to camp late (or not at all), and he’s labeled a problem child.  Sit out the season (as he’s threatened) and that compounds the problem, plus, he loses $13M (which will be hard to make up).

Show’s up for the season distracted (like last year) and he hurts himself further.

The only good part of this scenario for him, sign the tender, get paid $13M.  Ball out.  Get signed (by someone) to an extension and hope it was worth all the drama.  Outside of that, he has no leverage.

Are we sure he was distracted? Or is he just inconsistent?

(07-26-2022, 01:58 PM)Stewy Wrote: See bold:  At this point, only by the fans and media.  

His teammates expect him to show up and play.  Until that time he is not a distraction to them.  
The FO, knows what this is business and won't label him as long as he shows up and plays.

As you say, however, if he sits out the season or plays distracted then it's a problem for everyone and he's only hurting himself.

Up to this point however, the only thing getting hurt are certain fans feelings.

 How do you know players ate fine with it overall, and how FO is thinkimg, it is your opinion thatvis fine but we rrally dont know wjay ovetall they are thinking

(07-26-2022, 10:59 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote:  How do you know players ate fine with it overall, and how FO is thinkimg, it is your opinion thatvis fine but we rrally dont know wjay ovetall they are thinking

Let Dax get the preseason reps. That side is fine.

(07-26-2022, 10:59 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote:  How do you know players ate fine with it overall, and how FO is thinkimg, it is your opinion thatvis fine but we rrally dont know wjay ovetall they are thinking

Because if you have looked up what players say about other players.....what ex-players say about these kinds of situations, they all say the same thing, which is what I posted.  So either every Ex-Player is lying or what I posted is true.

It's not my opinion, it's what's been said over and over for years.  Now there might be some players that are annoyed by it, but it is business, which fans don't get and the media feeds.  So you're falling victim to the media bias.  Listen to the ex-players and the truth comes out.  EVERY player eventually is in this situation, so they all understand it.  But at some point, where it is detrimental to the team, the other players will expect the player holding out to come in and do their job.

Again, these are not my opinions, but what has been said, by players, one way or another for years.

(07-26-2022, 10:59 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote:  How do you know players ate fine with it overall, and how FO is thinkimg, it is your opinion thatvis fine but we rrally dont know wjay ovetall they are thinking

WUT

(07-27-2022, 10:54 AM)Stewy Wrote: Because if you have looked up what players say about other players.....what ex-players say about these kinds of situations, they all say the same thing, which is what I posted.  So either every Ex-Player is lying or what I posted is true.

It's not my opinion, it's what's been said over and over for years.  Now there might be some players that are annoyed by it, but it is business, which fans don't get and the media feeds.  So you're falling victim to the media bias.  Listen to the ex-players and the truth comes out.  EVERY player eventually is in this situation, so they all understand it.  But at some point, where it is detrimental to the team, the other players will expect the player holding out to come in and do their job.

Again, these are not my opinions, but what has been said, by players, one way or another for years.

I think it bears repeating that this is different from a player who is under contract holding out. Bates has fulfilled his obligation under his contract with the Bengals. 

(07-27-2022, 11:00 AM)bfine32 Wrote: WUT

We've all posted drunk before. Lol

(07-27-2022, 11:14 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I think it bears repeating that this is different from a player who is under contract holding out. Bates has fulfilled his obligation under his contract with the Bengals. 

True