(09-26-2022, 04:44 PM)pally Wrote: This is why working as a coordinator helps the career trajectory in the long run

Zac Taylor says he made the wrong play call at wrong time on Chase toss on fourth-and-1. Says over thought it.

“Any other play call would have maybe worked other than the one I called.”

— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) September 26, 2022

Burrow or one of the players were alluding to Callahan has been calling some plays. Saw it on Twitter somewhere..

(09-27-2022, 01:41 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm not against using analytics as a tool. I just don't think the decision can be based Soley on that. Momentum is real in football and I'm not sure it takes that into account? 

Not to mention the QB/team you're playing against and just how the game is flowing.

Oh, 100%. The data is just a tool and isn’t meant to be used as a undeniable rule set. That is for sure.

(09-27-2022, 01:52 PM)Tony Wrote: Burrow or one of the players were alluding to Callahan has been calling some plays. Saw it on Twitter somewhere..

He is, and the plain truth is no one on this board know which plays Callahan calls and which one's Taylor calls, or which one's Burrow changes at the line unless one of them speaks up after the game and takes blame.

(09-26-2022, 09:46 PM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: This is a good point. Pitching it takes up too much space both backwards and to the side. If you run that play just hand it too Chase it's not quite as obvious to the defense and gives chase more time to decide whether to cut up field or to the boundary.

They start that play in shotgun and go under center to try and draw the defense in tight. The Jets did a good job of staying wider. Chase is coming that way in motion so that his momentum already has him moving towards the line of scrimmage so cutting isn't as difficult as taking the handoff running parallel to the LoS. 

It was good D by the Jets and not a good play call to the short side of the field, plus Chase didn't do a very good job of cutting it up before he got to the sideline. 

AND, Burrow should have taken it himself, behind Karras and Volson. 

(09-27-2022, 01:41 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I'm not against using analytics as a tool. I just don't think the decision can be based Soley on that. Momentum is real in football and I'm not sure it takes that into account? 

Not to mention the QB/team you're playing against and just how the game is flowing.

Anything that can change in the course of 1 play isn't reliable. Large data sets are reliable. Momentum is something you can theoretically control based on how successful your play calling (and execution) is. 

Just as an anecdotal side note, when i'm watching the game and involved in the GD threads, it seems as soon as a play or two goes against the Bengals, the sky-is-falling crowd ramps up and i can literally feel the mood change. Like, if i continue to stay in the thread, the Bengals will continue to play bad and lose. Of course that's not going to happen. How i feel or what people type in the heat of the moment has nothing to do with the game. 

The funny part (to me) is that momentum isn't really a tangible thing. You kind of know it when you see it but it's more of a made up term to explain a series of events. It's based on the law of large numbers. Anything that's quantifiable--a series of good plays or bad--is not going to stay that way for long. Things even out over time...so momentum is based on math, just like analytics, just like everything. 

(09-27-2022, 04:06 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Anything that can change in the course of 1 play isn't reliable. Large data sets are reliable. Momentum is something you can theoretically control based on how successful your play calling (and execution) is. 

Just as an anecdotal side note, when i'm watching the game and involved in the GD threads, it seems as soon as a play or two goes against the Bengals, the sky-is-falling crowd ramps up and i can literally feel the mood change. Like, if i continue to stay in the thread, the Bengals will continue to play bad and lose. Of course that's not going to happen. How i feel or what people type in the heat of the moment has nothing to do with the game. 

The funny part (to me) is that momentum isn't really a tangible thing. You kind of know it when you see it but it's more of a made up term to explain a series of events. It's based on the law of large numbers. Anything that's quantifiable--a series of good plays or bad--is not going to stay that way for long. Things even out over time...so momentum is based on math, just like analytics, just like everything. 

I don't engage in the momentum argument often because it has never really gotten me anywhere, but there have been studies into it that provide evidence it is more myth than fact. The way I look at it is either that it just doesn't exist whatsoever, or the effects of it are so weak that it isn't worth talking about. 

(09-27-2022, 04:11 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I don't engage in the momentum argument often because it has never really gotten me anywhere, but there have been studies into it that provide evidence it is more myth than fact. The way I look at it is either that it just doesn't exist whatsoever, or the effects of it are so weak that it isn't worth talking about. 

It's just a series of events, positive or negative. Crowds have a lot to do with how it's portrayed because of how loud or quiet they get, which influences anyone looking on, so they came up with a cute name for it. 

Regardless, it's not anything that can be relied on and can change in the span of 1 play. 

(09-27-2022, 01:58 PM)Sled21 Wrote: He is, and the plain truth is no one on this board know which plays Callahan calls and which one's Taylor calls, or which one's Burrow changes at the line unless one of them speaks up after the game and takes blame.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Taylor is smartly bringing Callihan along slowly to call the plays. It’s not something that you light a switch and are good. They are very accommodating to Joe and what he likes. They go over the call sheet and eliminate what he doesn’t like and add anything he suggests. Right now teams are forcing the Bengals to run the ball and throw short passes. Joe hates that but he’s coming around. So many things would be solved if they could break some runs in the run game.

(09-26-2022, 10:28 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Making the FG is no longer a given since we lost Clark. He's had one blocked and missed what, 2?

He's only missed one FG with the second string long-snapper. He didn't make one kick with the emergency snapper.

(09-27-2022, 09:34 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: He's only missed one FG with the second string long-snapper. He didn't make one kick with the emergency snapper.

Point remains... since Clark is out, he is missing on some kicks he would normally be automatic on. That has to be factored in when you're deciding to go for it or not.

(09-27-2022, 12:45 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: 4th and 1 at the LV 31, well within FG range. Up 13-6, can just kick the FG to go ahead by 3 more and make it a two score game.

Cincinnati runs the EXACT SAME play, a toss wide to Chase. He picks up the first down, and Cincinnati goes down to score a touchdown. Game is 20-6 instead of 16-6. Pretty huge play, that 4th-and-1, and they did it in a higher stakes game with much less of a margin for error. 

Thanks for reminding me of that Raiders call - it was indeed gutsy and worked out well. I wonder if factors like time on the clock and opponent's efficiency vs. outside runs were taken into consideration. If my memory serves me, Prince was doing pretty well on outside run plays that game. It was obvious that they were going to try to punish Crosby for selling out against the pass. The clock story is interesting too, because now you're weighing potentialities like an ideal +14 points in two drives vs. how much your opponent can realistically score with the time left. Granted that one worked so of course we're going to look at it differently. It just felt different vs. the Jets. They had been playing the outside run very well all day, the Bengals offense had stalled, Hendrickson/the D looked like they were taking over, the run game was not doing well up to that point. With these qualitative factors it made it feel as though the 3 points were extremely valuable at the time.

You make some good/interesting points. Discussions like these show why football is such a fun game to watch/analyze. It's a very deep game with many qualitative and quantitative factors that can affect the outcome.

(09-28-2022, 08:42 PM)Bilbo Saggins Wrote: Thanks for reminding me of that Raiders call - it was indeed gutsy and worked out well. I wonder if factors like time on the clock and opponent's efficiency vs. outside runs were taken into consideration. If my memory serves me, Prince was doing pretty well on outside run plays that game. It was obvious that they were going to try to punish Crosby for selling out against the pass. The clock story is interesting too, because now you're weighing potentialities like an ideal +14 points in two drives vs. how much your opponent can realistically score with the time left. Granted that one worked so of course we're going to look at it differently. It just felt different vs. the Jets. They had been playing the outside run very well all day, the Bengals offense had stalled, Hendrickson/the D looked like they were taking over, the run game was not doing well up to that point. With these qualitative factors it made it feel as though the 3 points were extremely valuable at the time.

You make some good/interesting points. Discussions like these show why football is such a fun game to watch/analyze. It's a very deep game with many qualitative and quantitative factors that can affect the outcome.

You make a great point about how the Jets were snuffing out anything going outside. I don't recall, but was the play in question before or after Williams left the game? That kid was EVERYWHERE Sunday. Maybe they thought without him, they could get the yard.

I agree though, had a much different feel than the playoff game.

(09-28-2022, 09:47 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Point remains... since Clark is out, he is missing on some kicks he would normally be automatic on. That has to be factored in when you're deciding to go for it or not.

He was perfect on kicks again with the replacement long snapper. He's only missed one kick with this snapper.