(11-29-2022, 08:12 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Respectfully we aren’t remotely on the same page. The Browns/Blackburns honor contracts and love Mixon personally. It’s not even a 1/1000 chance he gets cut. They’ve made their investment in the line. They are moving on to sign Higgins, Joe, and Boyd ( another Brown favorite). They will likely try to retain Bates but he wants the money. They covered themself with Dax Hill. They’ve also got Logan Wilson to keep. They won’t do squat in free agency unless it’s to replace a player they didn’t want to lose. All the money is going to keep players.

Not since they started actually signing real players in FA. Just the last 3 years...

They cut Bobby Hart.
They cut Trey Hopkins.
They cut Trey Waynes.
They cut Geno Atkins.
They cut Giovani Bernard.
They cut BJ Finney.
They cut Cordy Glenn.
They cut John Miller.
They cut BW Webb.
They cut Dre Kirkpatrick.
They cut Andy Dalton.

What there's not even a 1/1000 chance is that they sign all of Burrow, Higgins, Boyd to extensions next offseason with Chase also needing one before 2024. Simply isn't feasible while maintaining an NFL-caliber roster for the rest of the team. Even less so while paying Mixon nearly $13m.

- - - - -
EDIT:
Burrow ~$50-52m/yr
Higgins ~$23-25m/yr
Boyd ~$15-16m/yr
That's $88-93m/yr and I believe the 2023 cap is expected to be about $228m. Then in 2024 Chase is going to get ~$35m/yr (Justin Jefferson will reset the WR market again this coming offseason) and that'll put you at $123-128m/yr. Of course it won't all be equal yearly amounts and instead escalate from lower cap hits to higher ones. It's still way too much when you figure that's just 4 roster spots, 3 of them from the same position, and in 2024 they will be taking up roughly 1/2 of your cap space.

I'll admit I'd fallen off the Pollack Wagon. With the numerous sacks and the poor YPC in the run game, combined with what he did here in his last stop and in NYJ, I was ready to go in a different direction.

As is: Oline is not a problem.

(11-29-2022, 08:12 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Respectfully we aren’t remotely on the same page. The Browns/Blackburns honor contracts and love Mixon personally. It’s not even a 1/1000 chance he gets cut. They’ve made their investment in the line. They are moving on to sign Higgins, Joe, and Boyd ( another Brown favorite). They will likely try to retain Bates but he wants the money. They covered themself with Dax Hill. They’ve also got Logan Wilson to keep. They won’t do squat in free agency unless it’s to replace a player they didn’t want to lose. All the money is going to keep players.

Don't see them even trying to retain Bates, they're not even getting their money out of him presently on the tag. 

Plus Mixon, Burrow, Higgins, Boyd, and Wilson can not all be signed unless they're planning on not signing Chase. Which I don't see that happening.

As soon as Burrow is signed several pricey players have to be released and then the same thing when signing Chase the following year. 

(11-29-2022, 08:12 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Respectfully we aren’t remotely on the same page. The Browns/Blackburns honor contracts and love Mixon personally. It’s not even a 1/1000 chance he gets cut.

(11-29-2022, 07:42 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I doubt it, and not because of the Bengals. I personally just don't trust Dak Prescott in getting to the SB even though I know the Cowboys have a good team this year. He's a good QB, but he's been coddled by great OL and great running game his whole career that have hidden him from needing to carry a team, and I don't know if he can step up and win it in the playoffs based off his arm. I think in my mind he's basically Kirk Cousins, if Kirk Cousins had been drafted to a team with a HoF OL and great running game.

I guess it's still possible that we see Parsons pull a Von Miller and just put the team on his back while they run heavily on the run game, but I would put better odds on the NFC's representative being the Eagles.

I think there's the Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bengals who are real SB contenders left. 

Kirk Cousins is just Dak on a worse team, Jimmy G is simply bad in the playoffs and the 49ers this year aren't enough to carry him like they have in past playoffs, I don't trust the Bills when Josh Allen's elbow is balky and he's thrown 4 TD/5 INT with barely 60% completion and sub-7.0 YPA in the 4 games he's been injured, Lamar Jackson is terrible in the playoffs, and Ryan Tannehill is Ryan Tannehill.

I don't trust Dak either. 

I think the Eagles have been incredibly fortunate with who and when they've played. I'm not saying they're paper tigers but i don't think they're legit 10-1 good. They're top 5 NFL good but not top 2. 

Cousins, yup. Pretty meh in the playoffs. Jimmy G, yup. Bad in the playoffs. 

I was joking about Dallas in the playoffs. I don't think they'll get there. If i had to pick someone from the NFC, i'd probably have to go 'niners. 

(11-29-2022, 08:52 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Don't see them even trying to retain Bates, they're not even getting their money out of him presently on the tag. 

Plus Mixon, Burrow, Higgins, Boyd, and Wilson can not all be signed unless they're planning on not signing Chase. Which I don't see that happening.

As soon as Burrow is signed several pricey players have to be released and then the same thing when signing Chase the following year. 

I would shake Bates hand, thank him for the memories and say good luck in your next venture. 

(11-29-2022, 08:24 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Not since they started actually signing real players in FA. Just the last 3 years...

They cut Bobby Hart.
They cut Trey Hopkins.
They cut Trey Waynes.
They cut Geno Atkins.
They cut Giovani Bernard.
They cut BJ Finney.
They cut Cordy Glenn.
They cut John Miller.
They cut BW Webb.
They cut Dre Kirkpatrick.
They cut Andy Dalton.

What there's not even a 1/1000 chance is that they sign all of Burrow, Higgins, Boyd to extensions next offseason with Chase also needing one before 2024. Simply isn't feasible while maintaining an NFL-caliber roster for the rest of the team. Even less so while paying Mixon nearly $13m.

- - - - -
EDIT:
Burrow ~$50-52m/yr
Higgins ~$23-25m/yr
Boyd ~$15-16m/yr
That's $88-93m/yr and I believe the 2023 cap is expected to be about $228m. Then in 2024 Chase is going to get ~$35m/yr (Justin Jefferson will reset the WR market again this coming offseason) and that'll put you at $123-128m/yr. Of course it won't all be equal yearly amounts and instead escalate from lower cap hits to higher ones. It's still way too much when you figure that's just 4 roster spots, 3 of them from the same position, and in 2024 they will be taking up roughly 1/2 of your cap space.

I was looking at the 2022 cap hits for WRs and that Golladay contract has to be like an albatross around the Giants neck. Wow...

The reason i looked was because that number for Boyd looks a bit high. Surprised to see he's #12 on the list this year at 10.1M but he will be 30 when his next contract comes up. How dumb would it be to offer him 3 years with the majority of it in '24 while Chase is still on his rookie deal and Tee is starting his 2nd contract? Make the last 2 years as minimal as possible but guarantee the whole thing to make it more...enticing? That way, if they need to let him go, it's a small cap hit. I don't think they'll need to do Chase in '24. 

Burrow is currently estimated at 43.6M per but his averages are on the + side, when compared to Mahomes, Allen, Watson and Murray. Murray drags the averages down a bit but i'd say no more than to have Burrow = to the others.

Cap stuff bores me, mostly, so this is all just spitballing, looking for talk/opinions. 

(11-29-2022, 08:52 PM)Go Cards Wrote:
Don't see them even trying to retain Bates, they're not even getting their money out of him presently on the tag. 

Plus Mixon, Burrow, Higgins, Boyd, and Wilson can not all be signed unless they're planning on not signing Chase. Which I don't see that happening.

As soon as Burrow is signed several pricey players have to be released and then the same thing when signing Chase the following year. 

But then does he re-sign here out of fear of hitting the open market and not getting whatever we offer him? Would we offer him anything? 

Does he play it smart and sign here for security?

He could also turn it on again in the playoffs like he did last season or even soon in the regular season because he sees his value slipping. 

If he does turn it on, then we let him walk because those other pieces are more important, but is he going to regret not taking the (roughly) 17 million guaranteed? We won't offer him that again, but, like I said, does he sign here for security since no one will offer him that?

(11-29-2022, 09:52 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I would shake Bates hand, thank him for the memories and say good luck in your next venture. 

This is what I expect to happen

(11-29-2022, 10:37 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: But then does he re-sign here out of fear of hitting the open market and not getting whatever we offer him? Would we offer him anything? 

Does he play it smart and sign here for security?

He could also turn it on again in the playoffs like he did last season or even soon in the regular season because he sees his value slipping. 

If he does turn it on, then we let him walk because those other pieces are more important, but is he going to regret not taking the (roughly) 17 million guaranteed? We won't offer him that again, but, like I said, does he sign here for security since no one will offer him that?

The Bengals really cant afford him and he is not worth what he is being paid for what he has given us this year. Yet hope he does turn it on because we could really use him playing well right about now. 


But his replacement has already been drafted so don't see him staying and the $13 million he is being paid could be better used elsewhere. 

(11-29-2022, 06:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I guess what I am trying to get at from the beginning is that a "props to Frank Pollack" thread while the team has still allowed the 5th most sacks in the NFL and is 29th in rushing YPC after last year being 3rd most sacks and 26th in rushing YPC seems... odd. 5th worst at not letting your QB get sacked and 4th worst at your RBs getting yards on their carries isn't really toot-his-horn-thread worthy when they have the 13th highest paid C, 15th highest paid G, 10th highest paid RT, and a 1st rounder LT you just picked the 5th year option up on. 

Wasn't the level of improvement I was expecting/looking for.

You also have to factor in the fact that Burrow is going to take sacks regardless of the line in front of him. That is his style of play, he is going to hold the ball and try to make a play out of nothing instead of chucking it to the sidelines immediately. 

(11-29-2022, 08:52 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Don't see them even trying to retain Bates, they're not even getting their money out of him presently on the tag. 

Plus Mixon, Burrow, Higgins, Boyd, and Wilson can not all be signed unless they're planning on not signing Chase. Which I don't see that happening.

As soon as Burrow is signed several pricey players have to be released and then the same thing when signing Chase the following year. 

I would put slightly less effort into signing him as he has into playing full speed football this season.

(11-29-2022, 08:12 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: Respectfully we aren’t remotely on the same page. The Browns/Blackburns honor contracts and love Mixon personally. It’s not even a 1/1000 chance he gets cut. They’ve made their investment in the line. They are moving on to sign Higgins, Joe, and Boyd ( another Brown favorite). They will likely try to retain Bates but he wants the money. They covered themself with Dax Hill. They’ve also got Logan Wilson to keep. They won’t do squat in free agency unless it’s to replace a player they didn’t want to lose. All the money is going to keep players.

Where you think they are going to find all this cap space to sign all those guys to the deals we expect them to sign?

Starters who are hitting FA in the next few years:
2023 - Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple, Pratt
2024 - Hendrickson, Reader, Boyd, Burrow, Awuzie, Higgins, Jonah Williams, Logan Wilson
2025 - BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras, McPherson
2026 - Hubbard, Cappa, Volson, Chase (assuming 5th year option is picked up)

That 2024 class of upcoming FAs is going to be super pricey.

(11-29-2022, 08:12 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: They won’t do squat in free agency unless it’s to replace a player they didn’t want to lose. All the money is going to keep players.

This sounds more like MB/ML Era.

(11-29-2022, 10:50 AM)Wyche Wrote: That Titans D sacked Joe nine times last year, and once on Sunday. I'll take it.

Yep, no reason to dog on the OL right now. They were very impressive against the Titans, a damn tough DL, one of the best.

Props to Pollack, the other OL coach we brought in forgot his name and the OL as a whole.

Do you mean Derek Frazier?

Props in any event to the coaches swallowing their pride and recognizing what scheme these linemen are best at and switching to it.

(11-30-2022, 12:52 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: This sounds more like MB/ML Era.

It’s gonna take a lot of money to keep Higgins and Joe. Then there’s Chase. It is what it is.

(11-30-2022, 11:22 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Where you think they are going to find all this cap space to sign all those guys to the deals we expect them to sign?

Starters who are hitting FA in the next few years:
2023 - Bates, Bell, Hurst, Apple, Pratt
2024 - Hendrickson, Reader, Boyd, Burrow, Awuzie, Higgins, Jonah Williams, Logan Wilson
2025 - BJ Hill, Collins, Hilton, Karras, McPherson
2026 - Hubbard, Cappa, Volson, Chase (assuming 5th year option is picked up)

That 2024 class of upcoming FAs is going to be super pricey.

Oh it’s going to be a nightmare. Just Burrow, Higgins and Chase rough.

When doing comparisons from this year to last, olease remember our WRs have been banged up worse this year and Burrow absolutely sucked early on with now pre-season and the appendectomy.

We have not had mant games with Chase healthy, Higgins not gimpy, Burrow not rusty, and the o-line sorted, yet.

When that happens, it will be easier to run. Less obvious must pass downs. More fear of deep balls. More 2 deep safery looks. More space for Hurst, Boyd, & Higgins underneath. It will all be easier.

(11-29-2022, 07:37 AM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: We will win a lot of games with pockets like these. We’ve been seeing this (maybe not this big) more frequently over this last stretch.

Frame it pic.twitter.com/0URU8FSNh7

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) November 29, 2022

 

That is a pretty picture. The oline certainly has been playing better and I'm very glad to see it. I just noticed in the pic that Collins is on his knees. I know he's been winning ugly and if it's working I'll take it but the dude does fall down alot.

(11-29-2022, 08:24 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Not since they started actually signing real players in FA. Just the last 3 years...

They cut Bobby Hart.
They cut Trey Hopkins.
They cut Trey Waynes.
They cut Geno Atkins.
They cut Giovani Bernard.
They cut BJ Finney.
They cut Cordy Glenn.
They cut John Miller.
They cut BW Webb.
They cut Dre Kirkpatrick.
They cut Andy Dalton.

What there's not even a 1/1000 chance is that they sign all of Burrow, Higgins, Boyd to extensions next offseason with Chase also needing one before 2024. Simply isn't feasible while maintaining an NFL-caliber roster for the rest of the team. Even less so while paying Mixon nearly $13m.

- - - - -
EDIT:
Burrow ~$50-52m/yr
Higgins ~$23-25m/yr
Boyd ~$15-16m/yr
That's $88-93m/yr and I believe the 2023 cap is expected to be about $228m. Then in 2024 Chase is going to get ~$35m/yr (Justin Jefferson will reset the WR market again this coming offseason) and that'll put you at $123-128m/yr. Of course it won't all be equal yearly amounts and instead escalate from lower cap hits to higher ones. It's still way too much when you figure that's just 4 roster spots, 3 of them from the same position, and in 2024 they will be taking up roughly 1/2 of your cap space.

Man I'm a Mixon fan and I highly doubt they cut him. But if they made a move like that and decided to draft a RB in the 2nd round to replace him. Then I hope they find a way to pay Bates and Vonn Bell. I know all the talk about Bates not deserving top money but I think they could find a middle ground with increased guaranteed money. I was just thinking the other day that we are very lucky to have the defense that we have and changing things up in the back end of the secondary could have major impacts for this defense.