Does Burrow get to this level of play if Chase plays every game and the training wheels were never taken off?

Imo i don’t think so

Those games were also important for Zac Taylor. God forbid we lost a guy later in the season and now we have to make a Chase-less gameplan in a playoff game with no tape on how to succeed without Chase.

I would say I agree

Not exactly like we were playing the Patriots in the prime of their superbowl run(s). I think Burrow is playing at a very efficient pace with great fundamentals. JT O'Sullivan breaks down Burrow's movements really well.. No wasted movement with the ball in his hands.. https://youtu.be/cE0JYqujllE

(12-07-2022, 12:04 PM)grampahol Wrote: Not exactly like we were playing the Patriots in the prime of their superbowl run(s). I think Burrow is playing at a very efficient pace with great fundamentals. JT O'Sullivan breaks down Burrow's movements really well.. No wasted movement with the ball in his hands.. https://youtu.be/cE0JYqujllE

I love his breakdowns

(12-07-2022, 11:42 AM)Housh Wrote: Does Burrow get to this level of play if Chase plays every game and the training wheels were never taken off?

Imo i don’t think so

Those games were also important for Zac Taylor. God forbid we lost a guy later in the season and now we have to make a Chase-less gameplan in a playoff game with no tape on how to succeed without Chase.

I couldn't agree more. It seemed like, prior to Chase's injury, there was still that thought in the back of both Burrow's and Taylor's mind, "Just throw it to Chase. We don't need to worry about anything other than throwing it to Chase."

Prior to his injury, Chase had 47 receptions on 74 targets. That is a catch percentage of 63.5% and would be 36th in the NFL among WRs with at least 30 receptions. 

For reference, Tee Higgins is at 70.6%, Boyd is at 69.2%, Hurst is at 76.2% and Perine and Mixon (granted, RB receptions aren't really comparable because they're mostly check downs) are 80% and 77.4%, respectively.

Among all Cincinnati players with at least one target this year, Chase was 10th out of 15 in catch percentage, with only Irwin (8 rec on 13 tgt), Traveon Willliams (1 rec on 2 tgt), Mike Thomas (2 receptions on 10 tgt...Jesus Christ, Mike...), Stanley Morgan (0 for 1) and Devin Asiasi (0 for 2) behind him.

Yet he, through those 7 games, had the most targets on the team by a fairly comfortable margin (Higgins was second with just 44.)

I know Chase is a big play receiver and big play receivers often have lower catch percentages than possession receivers. For instance, AJ Brown had essentially the same catch rate as Chase with a 63.54% (through 12 games, rather than Ja'Marr's 7), but then there are big play receivers like Justin Jefferson (14.5 ypc, 69.3% catch percentage) and Tyreek Hill (14.4 ypc, 74.4% catch percentage) that have high yards per catch and high catch percentages. That is what being a #1 receiver should look like, in my opinion, especially when your QB is completing over 69% of his passes.

Also worth noting, Tee Higgins (14.4) and Tyler Boyd (14.6 ypc) are averaging more yards per reception than Chase this year (13.0), so it isn't like his catch percentage was lower because he was being thrown nothing but low percentage bombs. AJ Brown, on the other hand, leads his team in yards per reception, which makes sense when you look at his low catch percentage.

So, to bring us back to the present, what does Chase do in the game against KC after missing 4 games? He gets 7 receptions on 8 targets, with his only "miss" being the one handed catch out of bounds.

What all of this data tells me, with every attempt at limiting bias and providing context and counter examples, is that the offense prior to Chase's injury relied on Chase making a play rather than consistently throwing to the open man. His low catch percentage tied with his relatively low ypc (relative to the other receivers on his own team in addition to star players with similar catch percentage) is an indication that his low catch percentage was not a result of receiving nothing but low percentage deep balls. He was simply being thrown to when he was not open.

Once he returned, his first game back was a nearly perfect game for him (7 of 8 with the one incompletion being caught but narrowly out of bounds) and Burrow. 

I'm excited to watch this offense moving forward, because losing Chase for a month did cause the offense to evolve and I think we are better off for it.

(12-07-2022, 12:29 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I couldn't agree more. It seemed like, prior to Chase's injury, there was still that thought in the back of both Burrow's and Taylor's mind, "Just throw it to Chase. We don't need to worry about anything other than throwing it to Chase."

Prior to his injury, Chase had 47 receptions on 74 targets. That is a catch percentage of 63.5% and would be 36th in the NFL among WRs with at least 30 receptions. 

For reference, Tee Higgins is at 70.6%, Boyd is at 69.2%, Hurst is at 76.2% and Perine and Mixon (granted, RB receptions aren't really comparable because they're mostly check downs) are 80% and 77.4%, respectively.

Among all Cincinnati players with receptions this year, Chase was 10th out of 15 in catch percentage, with only Irwin (8 rec on 13 tgt), Traveon Willliams (1 rec on 2 tgt), Mike Thomas (2 receptions on 10 tgt...Jesus Christ, Mike...), Stanley Morgan (0 for 1) and Devin Asiasi (0 for 2) behind him.

Yet he, through those 7 games, had the most targets on the team by a fairly comfortable margin (Higgins was second with just 44.)

I know Chase is a big play receiver and big play receivers often have lower catch percentages than possession receivers. For instance, AJ Brown had essentially the same catch rate as Chase with a 63.54% (through 12 games, rather than Ja'Marr's 7), but then there are big play receivers like Justin Jefferson (14.5 ypc, 69.3% catch percentage) and Tyreek Hill (14.4 ypc, 74.4% catch percentage) that have high yards per catch and high catch percentages. That is what being a #1 receiver should look like, in my opinion, especially when your QB is completing over 69% of his passes.

Also worth noting, Tee Higgins (14.4) and Tyler Boyd (14.6 ypc) are averaging more yards per reception than Chase this year (13.0), so it isn't like his catch percentage was lower because he was being thrown nothing but low percentage bombs. AJ Brown, on the other hand, leads his team in yards per reception, which makes sense when you look at his low catch percentage.

So, to bring us back to the present, what does Chase do in the game against KC after missing 4 games? He gets 7 receptions on 8 targets, with his only "miss" being the one handed catch out of bounds.

What all of this data tells me, with every attempt at limiting bias and providing context and counter examples, is that the offense prior to Chase's injury relied on Chase making a play rather than consistently throwing to the open man. His low catch percentage tied with his relatively low ypc (relative to the other receivers on his own team in addition to star players with similar catch percentages) is an indication that his low catch percentage was not a result of receiving nothing but low percentage deep balls. He was simply being thrown to when he was not open.

Once he returned, his first game back was a nearly perfect game for him (7 of 8 with the one incompletion being caught but narrowly out of bounds) and Burrow. 

I'm excited to watch this offense moving forward, because losing Chase for a month did cause the offense to evolve and I think we are better off for it.

Also, I think during Chase's absence Burrow has gotten really comfortable throwing to Hurst and checking down to the running back. He seems to me to be way more willing to toss it to Perine for 8-10 yards.

(12-07-2022, 11:42 AM)Housh Wrote: Does Burrow get to this level of play if Chase plays every game and the training wheels were never taken off?

Imo i don’t think so

Those games were also important for Zac Taylor. God forbid we lost a guy later in the season and now we have to make a Chase-less gameplan in a playoff game with no tape on how to succeed without Chase.

The best thing that happened was the OL improved and gelled. Volson and Williams went from whiffers to glass eaters. Volson has exponentially improved. My buddy talks to the coaches regularly and he said they’ve used 30-50 plays they’ve had in their arsenal unable to use

I agree and said similar things when he got hurt (although I was hoping we’d trade/sign a decent #4). I do feel a lot better about the way the offense is distributing the ball all over the place. We’ve got 3 backup RB’s getting touches/catches, and a couple of our WR’s outside of the big 3 making real contributions.

Go back and watch the start of this game against the Chiefs. The first drive with all 3 WR’s healthy and we March down the field using Hurst, Perine, Wilcox and Burrow’s legs. One pass went to Boyd and that’s it for the main WR’s. That’s not something we saw before the Chase/Mixon injuries.
The offense had to adapt over the last month+ and we are much better off for it. This team looks to be peaking at the right time and proving they can win in any number of ways

Zac Taylor : On OL: it's allowed us to do a lot of different things. It's allowed us to hold on to the ball and take shots down the field, it's allowed Joe to get all the way to No. 5 in his progression, and it's opened up some really good running lanes for the backs. Again, I think that they're doing a heck of a job and giving us great opportunities to move the ball.

He may never see the field, but I liked the Bengals added Tyron Johnson to the practice squad. He has NFL experience and is extremely fast. It will be interesting to see if the Bengals do elevate him to the 53 man roster for a game or 2.

4 Receiver set: No TE

Wide - Johnson and Higgins
Slot - Chase and Boyd
RB - Mixon, Perrine or Evans

Who do safeties, slot corner and LB'S cover?

But, he may never see action, but it is nice having a WR tucked away in case of injury with blazing speed and some muscle mass.