With the forecast for bitter cold and high winds that could drastically effect the passing game, I was just curious who has the better run game of the two teams, and it seems that NE is slightly better.



I wonder how much of an impact this (and the weather) will have on the game?
Is this something to be concerned about?

(12-22-2022, 10:12 AM)Tomkat Wrote: Is this something to be concerned about?

Only if Mixon starts. 

Have we tried 2 back sets with mixon and perine. I thought we did, I’m wondering how successful they were with this.

Teams can't run on us, so it doesn't matter.

I can't imagine NE is going to score more than 10 points this game. They are awful on offense.

(12-22-2022, 10:12 AM)Tomkat Wrote: With the forecast for bitter cold and high winds that could drastically effect the passing game, I was just curious who has the better run game of the two teams, and it seems that NE is slightly better.



I wonder how much of an impact this (and the weather) will have on the game?
Is this something to be concerned about?

The Patriots are notably better, and I would venture to say it isn't close. The Patriots have much more dynamic backs. When we look at the averages between each teams backfield (RBs only), the difference is more noticeable. New England is averaging 4.75 yards per attempt when they hand the ball off to one of their RBs (4th in the league) whereas Cincinnati is averaging 4.10 yards per carry (18th). Their backs are forcing more missed tackles and averaging significantly more yards after contact. If you use PFR as the source, Mixon has broken seven tackles all season, averaging a broken tackle every 26 carries, or basically every other game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 23 broken tackles on the season, averaging a broken tackle every eight carries. 

The Bengals are a bottom tier running game. New England is arguably elite. 

(12-22-2022, 10:45 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Teams can't run on us, so it doesn't matter.

I can't imagine NE is going to score more than 10 points this game. They are awful on offense.

Raiders have one of the worst passing defenses - if not THE worst - in the NFL and Mac Jones had abysmal stats. The Bengals defense is far and away better than Las Vegas'. 

Now, that I said that, watch mac Jones have a career day against us.

(12-22-2022, 11:08 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Patriots are notably better, and I would venture to say it isn't close. The Patriots have much more dynamic backs. When we look at the averages between each teams backfield (RBs only), the difference is more noticeable. New England is averaging 4.75 yards per attempt when they hand the ball off to one of their RBs (4th in the league) whereas Cincinnati is averaging 4.10 yards per carry (18th). Their backs are forcing more missed tackles and averaging significantly more yards after contact. If you use PFR as the source, Mixon has broken seven tackles all season, averaging a broken tackle every 26 carries, or basically every other game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 23 broken tackles on the season, averaging a broken tackle every eight carries. 

The Bengals are a bottom tier running game. New England is arguably elite. 

The difference is going to be our running backs don't have to run through a pissed off overlooked again DJ Reader.........

I really think both passing games are going to be neutralized by the wind. My worry is that Mac Jones will "Mike White" dink and dunk the Bengals enough to keep their running game effective.

NE is definitely going to run the ball, as it's the only thing that their offense does well. The key is going to be in second level containment, and not allowing any breakaway runs. Should the Bengals be able to get out to a quick lead, this job might become much easier if the Patriots are forced to play urgently in "Pass First" mode.

(12-22-2022, 11:37 AM)Tomkat Wrote: I really think both passing games are going to be neutralized by the wind.  My worry is that Mac Jones will "Mike White" dink and dunk the Bengals enough to keep their running game effective.

The way the Bengals' passing game has worked lately, I don't think it will have much of an effect tbh. 

We have feasted on quick passing and hitting checkdowns. We barely throw deep anymore other than a couple shots down field a game. 

The patriots have the better run game, and it isn’t really close.

Why?

The bengals have one of the best pass offenses in the NFL and struggle to run the ball effectively at times.

Where as the patriots have one of the worst pass offenses in the NFL and have had success more often than not.

The threat of burrow, chase, Higgins and boyd should create huge opportunity.

The threat of mac attack, Parker, Meyers and Bourne should mean more focus on the run.

(12-22-2022, 10:12 AM)Tomkat Wrote: With the forecast for bitter cold and high winds that could drastically effect the passing game, I was just curious who has the better run game of the two teams, and it seems that NE is slightly better.



I wonder how much of an impact this (and the weather) will have on the game?
Is this something to be concerned about?

Goose mentioned this before, but adjusted rushing (excluding qbs) it’s even greater.

Burrow has accounted for 17% of the yards and 38% of the TDs

Patriots qbs have accounted for 6% of the rushing yards and .08% of TDs

Adjusted rushing stats

Patriots 316 - 1,471 - 4.7 - 11
Bengals 284 - 1,159 - 4.1 - 8

This also doesn’t take into account my commentary on a previous post that the bengals should have more opportunity with more focus on the pass.

Also, the Patriots OL is better. Not saying bengals is bad, but patriots are top 5 OL in the league right now.

Who's better at stopping the run?

(12-22-2022, 11:36 AM)Sled21 Wrote: The difference is going to be our running backs don't have to run through a pissed off overlooked again DJ Reader.........

You and I don't agree on much but they ain't got a DJ.  We do.

(12-22-2022, 11:37 AM)Tomkat Wrote: I really think both passing games are going to be neutralized by the wind. My worry is that Mac Jones will "Mike White" dink and dunk the Bengals enough to keep their running game effective.

Like Weezy said, it will definitely neutralize the deep and intermediate pass game (if it will be as windy as the forecast says), but those quick crossing routes and outs shouldn't be affected.

I would expect a shit-ton of motions, shifts and other pre-snap looks this week, with a lot of shallow crossers, outs, quick slants, etc.

Nothing down the seam, no go routes, nothing like that.

I would argue the Patriots have a better running game, but they have a far worse passing game.
Mac Jones only has 2310 passing yards with just 7 TDs and has 8 INTs in 11 starts.
Out of all the NE games, their QBs total 3128 passing yards.

It's only supposed to be a high of 25 degrees near Foxboro Saturday, but it will be sunny.
Hopefully the colder temps don't result in the Bengals throwing less, but I like the Bengals' chances as long as it's not snowy/icy.

(12-22-2022, 11:08 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Patriots are notably better, and I would venture to say it isn't close. The Patriots have much more dynamic backs. When we look at the averages between each teams backfield (RBs only), the difference is more noticeable. New England is averaging 4.75 yards per attempt when they hand the ball off to one of their RBs (4th in the league) whereas Cincinnati is averaging 4.10 yards per carry (18th). Their backs are forcing more missed tackles and averaging significantly more yards after contact. If you use PFR as the source, Mixon has broken seven tackles all season, averaging a broken tackle every 26 carries, or basically every other game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 23 broken tackles on the season, averaging a broken tackle every eight carries. 

The Bengals are a bottom tier running game. New England is arguably elite. 

Agree and we also have been  terrible with top end pass rushers which NE has, this will be a tough game 

(12-22-2022, 01:08 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I would argue the Patriots have a better running game, but they have a far worse passing game.
Mac Jones only has 2310 passing yards with just 7 TDs and has 8 INTs in 11 starts.
Out of all the NE games, their QBs total 3128 passing yards.

It's only supposed to be a high of 25 degrees near Foxboro Saturday, but it will be sunny.
Hopefully the colder temps don't result in the Bengals throwing less, but I like the Bengals' chances as long as it's not snowy/icy.

Yeah, it's looking like as far as weather goes, the Bengals are catching a break this game is at Foxboro and not Cincinnati.  The wind alert is set to expire at 7:00AM Saturday.  Hopefully that holds out.

(12-22-2022, 01:08 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I would argue the Patriots have a better running game, but they have a far worse passing game.
Mac Jones only has 2310 passing yards with just 7 TDs and has 8 INTs in 11 starts.
Out of all the NE games, their QBs total 3128 passing yards.

It's only supposed to be a high of 25 degrees near Foxboro Saturday, but it will be sunny.
Hopefully the colder temps don't result in the Bengals throwing less, but I like the Bengals' chances as long as it's not snowy/icy.

This NFL weather forecast is calling for 16° with a 13 mph southwesterly wind all game long, wind chill of 1°F at kickoff.  Driving toward the North endzone, they'll have the wind at their back, and should have a fair chance at passing the ball for 2 quarters of the game.

http://nflweather.com/game/2022/week-16/bengals-at-patriots

I think we have the advantage with the Gravedigger. They have a slightly better run game for sure, but their passing game is mediocre while our passing game is very good and I think we have a tougher run defense.